Days before next Tuesday's U.S. presidential and congressional election, U.S. lawmakers heard from economists and other experts about the impact of recession on Americans, and pros and cons of a new economic stimulus package for the U.S. economy. Majority Democrats are expected to call Congress back into session in mid-November to focus on the U.S. financial crisis and possible new legislation aimed at stimulating the U.S. economy.
在美国即将于下星期二举行总统选举和国会选举之际，国会议员们听取了经济学家和其他专家讨论经济衰退对美国人的影响以及一个新的经济刺激计划会产生哪些正面和负面的效果。预计，国会多数党民主党将在11月中旬召集国会开会，集中讨论美国金融危机以及为刺激美国经济进行新的立法的可能性。
This past week, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi pointed to data showing a decline in U.S. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the third quarter of 2008, and an increase in the numbers of Americans applying for unemployment benefits, saying this underscores the need for what she called a fiscally responsible stimulus plan.
在过去这个星期里，国会众议院议长南希.佩洛西提到2008年第三季度美国国民生产总值下滑、美国人申请失业补贴数字增长的数据，她指出，这凸显了制定负责任的财政刺激计划的必要性。
Economists and other experts offered projections about just how bad the economic downturn, which many said constitutes a recession, may be.
经济学家和其他专家对经济放缓的程度提出种种预测，很多人说，美国可能已经进入衰退。
Appearing before the bipartisan Joint Economic Committee, J. Steven Landefeld, Director of the Bureau of Economic Analysis, says whether it's called a recession or not, the economy is in a dramatic slowdown:
商务部经济分析局局长兰德菲尔德对国会由两党成员组成的联合经济委员会说，不管叫不叫衰退，经济目前是急剧下滑。
"We all know there has been a huge loss of consumer wealth during this period. Household's disposable income share going to energy has certainly gone up considerably over time and the economy is growing at a rate too slow to generate new jobs sufficient to keep up with labor force growth, population growth, and growth in productivity," he said.
他说：“我们都知道，这段时间消费者财富急剧缩水。家庭可支配收入中相当大的一部分被用于能源消费。经济增长率是如此之低，以至于无法创造出足够多的新工作来跟上劳动力增长、人口增长以及生产力增长的步伐。”
Nuriel Rubini, a former U.S. treasury department official now at New York University, flatly calls it a recession, and predicts it will last 18 and possibly as long as 24 months, involving a cumulative decline in economic output of more than four percent, the worst since World War II.
前财政部官员、纽约大学的鲁比尼干脆就把目前的现状称为经济衰退。他预计，这种状况将延续18个月，甚至24个月之久，经济产出累计下降4%以上，将会是二战以来最糟糕的状况。
Rubini urges Congress to act on a second fiscal stimulus of at least 300 billion dollars, saying that without support for Main Street [average Americans], government steps to support financial markets could be undone:
鲁比尼敦促国会采取行动，推行第二个总金额至少为3千万美元的财政刺激计划。他指出，如果不对美国普通老百姓提供支撑，政府解救金融市场的步骤可能不起作用。
"This action has to be taken right away and soon. We cannot wait until the next Congress in February because three months from now the collapse of spending, consumption and investments will be so sharp that the economic contractions could become even more severe," he said.
鲁比尼说：“必须马上尽快采取措施。我们不能等到明年2月国会下一届会期开始。因为从现在起三个月时间内，支出、消费以及投资的下滑幅度将会非常大，经济紧缩的状况可能会更加严重。”
Richard Vedder, Professor of Economics at Ohio University and a visiting scholar at the American Enterprise Institute is concerned that an overly-zealous Congress, as he puts it, will craft legislation that could have adverse effects and questions where the money will come from. "In a financially-stressed situation, we're talking about going out and borrowing to add 300 or 400 billion on to what we are already doing, the better part of at trillion dollars, seven or eight percent of GDP. I think that is a dangerous and somewhat fiscally irresponsible thing to do and I think in the long-run it will inspire a decline in confidence and will lead to inflationary expectations soaring."
俄亥俄大学经济学教授、美国企业研究所访问学者维德则担心一个过于急切采取行动的国会将通过可能产生负面效果的立法。他还对国会的钱从何处来提出了质疑。他说：“面对金融困境，我们在谈论如何走出来，谈论如何在目前的基础上再增加3千亿到4千亿美元，接近一万亿，这是国内生产总值的7%或8%。我认为这是很危险的，是不负责任的财政措施。我认为，长期看来，这会引发信心下跌，抬高通涨预期。”
Former International Monetary Fund research director Simon Johnson, now with the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, warns of unprecedented global dimensions from a U.S. recession.
He urges Congress to act quickly on a package of around 450-billion dollars, to include extending unemployment benefits, job re-training, student and small business loans, and infrastructure projects. "I think we probably have a month or perhaps two months to really see the direction of the economy. I would agree completely with people who think that now is the time to prepare a large fiscal stimulus."
In the House Ways & Means Committee, state governors, a city mayor, and state and local officials called for another government stimulus plan.
在众议院筹款委员会，各州州长、一名市长以及州和地方官员呼吁再制定一个政府刺激计划。
New York Governor David Paterson said his state is among 25 U.S. states facing huge deficits. "There are 25 states in deficit, totaling more than $48 billion of debt. Their projections for 2010 are spiked upward incredibly. There will be 39 states in deficit and the amounts owed total over $105 billion."
纽约州州长佩特森说，纽约州是面临巨大赤字的25个州之一。他说：“有25个州面临赤字，债务总额超过480亿。他们对2010年赤字上涨的预测更是高得令人难以置信。到那时，39个州将有赤字，总金额高达1050亿美元。”
Among more dire warnings, Robert Greenstein, of the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities, spoke of potential sharp increases in poverty, with Americans facing what he calls holes in the social safety that did not exist during previous deep recessions in the 1970's and 1980's: "I think we are facing a growing prospect of levels of destitution, not just poverty, destitution, severe hardship and increases in homelessness that we haven't seen in several decades," he said.
预算和政策优先中心的格林斯坦的警告更可怕。他谈到了贫困急剧增加的可能性。格林斯坦说，美国人面临社会保障上的漏洞，而这在1970年代和1980年代发生的深度危机中并不存在。他说：“我认为，我们面临不同程度贫困的可能性越来越大。不仅仅是贫穷，是贫困，是几十年未遇的极度艰难以及无家可归人口的增加。”
Democratic Representative Charlie Rangel, chairman of the Ways & Means panel, says Democrats and Republicans should work together when Congress returns after the election to help with the economy. "We have to be prepared to put together that will indeed be bipartisan. Quite frankly I don't think that should be very difficult. When someone loses their job, their health insurance, can't pay the mortgage, finds himself not being able to get credit, no one asks whether they are a Republican or whether they are Democrat."
众议院筹款委员会主席、民主党人兰热尔说，大选之后，国会重新开会时，民主党人和共和党人应该共同努力，帮助经济增长。“我们必须准备好，做出真正超越党派的努力。坦率地说，我不认为这会非常困难。当一个人丢掉工作、没有医疗保险、不能支付房贷、发现自己无法得到贷款时，没有人会问他是民主党还是共和党。”
Republicans such as Representative Jim McRery share concerns about the widespread impacts of recession, but oppose any package that would have little chance of winning congressional and presidential approval. "It would do us little good to draft a package like that if it stands little chance of passing a closely-divided Senate or getting signed by the president," he said.
众议员麦克拉里等共和党人对经济衰退的广泛影响表示担忧，但是反对制定任何可能不会被国会或是总统批准的计划。他说：“如果我们起草一揽子计划，但几乎没有可能得到国会或总统的批准，这样做于事无补。”
The White House has so far expressed resistance, at least in public, to any new measure containing the kind of provisions and level of spending Democrats are likely to include.
This means Democrats would have to wait until next year and a new congressional session, to work with either Senator Barack Obama or Senator John McCain as president, on the next stage of efforts to help the economy.
这就意味著民主党人不得不等到明年新一届国会开会的时候，与当选总统的奥巴马参议员或是麦凯恩参议员一起，为推动经济发展开始下一个阶段的努力。 |