[00:00.00]Chapter 4 Futures
[00:01.41]第四章期货
[00:02.82]Unit 7 Futures
[00:05.26]第七单元期货
[00:07.71]Words and Expressions:
[00:11.60]T-bond, bond,appreciate,consequence
[00:19.98]prediction,futures contract
[00:24.37]Dialogue Stephen and Michael are good friends,
[00:27.42]迈克和迈克尔是好朋友,
[00:30.46]and they work in the same office building.
[00:32.26]他们在同一个写字楼工作.
[00:34.06]Now they are having lunch together.
[00:35.46]现在他们正在一起吃午饭.
[00:36.86]S:How are you getting along with your boss?
[00:39.31]你和你的新老板相处得怎么样?
[00:41.77]M:Mr.Davis? Fine.He's a kind man.
[00:45.11]戴维斯先生?不错,他人挺好的.
[00:48.46]You look excited.Any good news?
[00:50.61]你看起来很兴奋,有什么好消息吗?
[00:52.77]S:Yes.Still remember I bought two T-bonds at 79-08 half a month ago?
[00:57.31]是的.还记得我半个月前买了两张国库券吗?
[01:01.86]M:You mean those two futures contracts?Of course.
[01:04.05]哦,那两张期货合约,当然记得,
[01:06.25]They had been worrying you for a whole week.
[01:08.19]它们不是让你紧张了整整一个星期吗?
[01:10.14]Notes:You mean those two futures contracts?
[01:16.43]Of course.They had been worrying you for a whole week.
[01:20.04]future contract
[02:02.33]S:That week was really terrible.
[02:04.13]那个星期可真是焦头烂额.
[02:05.94]The bonds price kept going down and down until it reached the level of 77-30.
[02:09.99]债券价格一直在跌,都跌到77-30了.
[02:14.03]But last week,the price went up and up.
[02:16.49]但上周又开始回升,一直在上涨.
[02:18.95]Yesterday it reached 86-18.
[02:21.09]昨天都涨到86-18的水平了.
[02:23.23]M:86-18? That is almost 12% more than the level where you bought.
[02:26.59]也就是说比你买的时候上扬12%?
[02:29.94]How much is one T-bond contract?
[02:32.59]一张国库券合同面值多少
[02:35.25]S:$100,000 at 70-08.
[02:40.09]在70-08上,是10000美元,
[02:44.94]From 70-08 to 70-09 is $31.25 up
[02:48.79]如果降一个点,损失31.25美元;
[02:52.64]and from 70-09 to 70-08 is $31.25 down.
[02:56.80]反之,增加31.25美元.
[03:00.95]M:So from 79-08 to 86-18 means that.
[03:04.84]那么从79-08到86-18就意味着,
[03:08.73]h'm,about $10,000 added,right?
[03:11.28]……嗯,差不多增加10000美元,是吗?
[03:13.83]S:It's actually $14,625.
[03:16.87]实际上是增值的14,625美元.
[03:19.92]M:Oh,great! Have you sold them out?
[03:22.81]啊,太棒了.你对冲了吗?
[03:25.71]S:Yes.I did it yesterday.
[03:27.31]是的,昨天我那它们卖出去了.
[03:28.90]M:At 86-18? S:Exactly.
[03:32.74]在86-18的水平上?是的,在86-18的水平上.
[03:36.58]M:Unbelievable!
[03:37.64]这简直太令人难以置信了.
[03:38.70]In just two weeks, you've made big money.
[03:40.84]才两个星期,你就赚了一大笔钱
[03:42.98]How can you manage to do that?
[03:44.68]你是怎么做到的呢?
[03:46.38]S:It's just I'm lucky.
[03:48.57]也许只是我运气好吧.
[03:50.77]M:It shouldn't be so simple.
[03:52.91]肯定没那么简单.
[03:55.05]Tell me,why were you so sure the bonds price would go up?
[03:58.04]告诉我,你怎么那么肯定债券价格会上涨呢?
[04:01.03]S:You see,there are many ways to technically analyze the futures market.
[04:04.73]你看,分析期货市场有很多技术性指标.
[04:08.42]One is to analyze the stock market.
[04:10.57]其中一个方法是以股票市场为参照分析.
[04:12.71]From the beginning of this year to October,
[04:14.86]从年初一到十月份,
[04:17.02]the stock market has been in a process of continuous rising of price.
[04:20.11]股票市场一直处于上升状态.
[04:23.21]Because of overbuying,the shares have heavily appreciated.
[04:26.46]由于过度买进,股票严重超值,
[04:29.71]This surely will lead to the collapse of the market
[04:32.42]其结果必然是股市的崩溃,
[04:35.12]and the end of the two-year rising in the stock market.
[04:37.37]从而结束为期两年的股票牛市.
[04:39.61]M:What does that mean to the futures market?
[04:42.51]这和期货市场又有什么关系呢?
[04:45.41]S:One of the consequences is that
[04:47.41]股票市场的这种状况导致的结果之一是
[04:49.41]most investors may be afraid
[04:51.32]股票投资者们害怕
[04:53.22]they can't get back their investment
[04:55.67]市场一旦崩溃,他们将无法收回投资,
[04:58.11]and they may shift their money to the bonds.
[05:00.56]因此将资金转向债券期货,
[05:03.02]The shift will undoubtedly cause the bond price to go up.
[05:06.31]这会导致债券价格上扬.
[05:09.60]Another consequence is that,
[05:11.55]另一个结果是,
[05:13.50]in order to save the stock market from collapsing
[05:15.94]为了挽救行将崩溃的股市
[05:18.38]and to guarantee the financial repaying ability,
[05:20.63]和保证金融偿还能力,
[05:22.87]the government will have to
[05:24.66]政府必将会
[05:26.45]raise the interest rate and as a result,the bonds price will rise.
[05:29.94]抬高利率,这也会导致债券价格上扬.
[05:33.43]M:It's interesting.
[05:34.86]真有意思.
[05:36.30]S:In fact,when I bought the contracts,
[05:38.55]实际上,我买了期货合同后,
[05:40.79]the price was still falling until a week later.
[05:43.14]债券价格还在下跌,持续一星期左右.
[05:45.50]M:Did you doubt your prediction then?
[05:46.95]那时你怀疑你的判断了吗?
[05:48.40]S:Yes,a little bit.I thought it over again and I strengthened my judgment.
[05:52.24]是的,有点儿,但我想了又想,坚定了自己的推测.
[05:56.08]M:You finished the contract at 86-18.
[05:58.87]你是在86-18的水平上结束了交易.
[06:01.67]But if the price will go up further?
[06:03.77]如果它还会上涨呢?
[06:05.87]S:It is quite possible.You know,it's also possible that it will go down.
[06:09.82]那很有可能,但也有可能会下跌.
[06:13.76]I think it's time for me get in on the action.
[06:16.01]我只是想该是抛的时候了.
[06:18.25]Notes:action I think it's time for me get in on the action.
[06:37.35]London is great because that's where the action is!
[06:42.34]M:It's really exciting.Maybe I will try it one day.
[06:45.73]做期货真的很激动人心.也许有一天我也会试一试.
[06:49.13]Supplementary Reading
[06:51.74]Futures and Futures Market
[06:53.58]期货与期货市场
[06:55.43]Futures market are centralized regulated markets
[06:58.52]期货市场是集中化、规范化的市场.
[07:01.62]where an actual commodity is not physically traded;
[07:04.02]在此市场中,
[07:06.42]instead futures contracts are bought and sold.
[07:08.62]交易的对象不是实际货物
[07:10.81]Futures contracts are legally binding agreements
[07:13.36]期货合约是受法律约束的,
[07:15.91]Notes:Futures contracts are legally binding agreements
[07:28.81]financial futures contract
[07:33.12]currency futures contract
[07:37.01]interest rate futures contract
[07:40.23]stock index futures contract
[07:44.61]financial forward contract
[07:47.80]and are standardized according to the quality,
[07:50.24]都有标准化的协议在质量,
[07:52.69]quantity,delivery time and location for each commodity.
[07:55.64]数量、交割时间及每一具体商品的交割地点上.
[07:58.59]The only variable is price,which is discovered on an exchange-trading floor
[08:01.74]合约中唯一可变因素是在交易厅内体现出来的价格.
[08:04.88]The buyer and seller of a futures contract make their contract not with each other
[08:07.73]期货合同使得不仅买方和卖方之间确定了合同关系,
[08:10.58]but with the clearing house associated with the futures exchange.
[08:13.47]而且与期货交易所的清算有关.
[08:16.35]Most market participants prefer to offset futures positions,
[08:18.90]期货市场的交易者对市场部位对冲了结
[08:21.45]rather than to make actual delivery.
[08:23.44]大都未进行实际交割.
[08:25.44]The function of futures markets are price discovery,
[08:27.94]期货市场的功能在于价格发现、
[08:30.43]price risk hedging,and improving market efficiency.
[08:33.24]价格风险规避及市场效率提高.
[08:36.05]Futures markets provide a current consensus of knowl edgeable opinions
[08:39.20]期货市场提供了市场判断
[08:42.34]about the future price of commodities or financial instrument
[08:44.79]对商品或金融工具未来价格综合信息.
[08:47.23]The futures market is used primarily for either risk management or speculation,
[08:50.77]期货市场或是用来进行风险管理,或是进行投机交易,
[08:54.31]and neither purpose requires delivery.
[08:56.52]而这两种目的都不需要进行实际交割.
[08:58.72]Futures prices are quotes for delivering a designated quality and quantity of grain
[09:01.96]期货价格是指提交某一表明质量,数量农产品报价
[09:05.20]to a specified place and time.
[09:07.29]在某一具体地点,时间.
[09:09.38]The delivery place is established according to the rules of the futures contract.
[09:12.23]交货地点根据期货合约条款预先制定.
[09:15.08]The delivery time consists of certain designated days during the delivery month.
[09:18.42]而交割时间包括在交割月的某几个具体指定交易日.
[09:21.76]Options on futures,also traded on the floor of a regulated futures exchange,
[09:25.26]期货选择权（期权）合约也在规范化的交易所内进行交易,
[09:28.76]are contracts that convey the buyer the right,but not the obligation,
[09:31.72]期权合约赋予买方权利,而非义务,
[09:34.67]to buy or sell a particular futures contract at a certain price for a limited time.
[09:37.92]在某一限定时间内按某一特定价格水平买进或卖出某一相关期货合约
[09:41.17]Only the seller of the option is obligated to perform.
[09:43.72]而卖方则必须根据买方要求履行期权合约.
[09:46.27]There are two different types of options:calls and cuts.
[09:49.06]期权有两种形式:即看涨期权和看跌期权（亦称买权和卖权）.
[09:51.86]A call is an option that gives the buyer the right,but not the obligation,
[09:54.46]看涨期权赋予买方以权利,但不必负有义务,
[09:57.05]to purchase the underlying futures contract at the strike price
[09:59.44]按敲定价格买进相关期货合约
[10:01.84]on or before the expiration date.
[10:03.74]在期权到期日当天或到期之前.
[10:05.65]A put is an option that gives the buyer the right,but not the obligation,
[10:08.64]看跌期权赋予买方以权利,但不必负有义务,
[10:11.63]to sell the underlying futures contract at the strike price
[10:14.14]按敲定价格卖出相关期货合约
[10:16.65]on or before the expiration date.
[10:18.70]有期权到期日当天或到期之前,.
[10:20.75]Unit 8 Hedging
[10:23.35]第八单元 套期保值
[10:25.95]Words and Expressions:
[10:29.13]hedging,broker,starch consignment,
[10:39.24]anticipatory hedging cash market,
[10:45.15]sell short buy long
[10:49.53]Dialogue
[10:51.73]Mr.Landor,a senior executive in a London foreign trade,
[10:54.52]兰道先生,一家伦敦对外贸易公司高级职员,
[10:57.32]is consulting Mr.Kent,a broker in the London Grain Exchange.
[11:00.27]正向肯特,伦敦谷物交易所的经纪人咨询.
[11:03.22]L:Excuse me,sir.I have come here to meet Mr.Kent.
[11:06.51]请原谅,先生.我找肯特先生.
[11:09.81]K:That's me.Are you Mr.Landor? L:Yes,I am Landor.
[11:13.35]我就是,您是兰道先生吧?是的,我是兰道.
[11:16.88]K:Good morning.My secretary told me you would come this morning.
[11:19.64]早上好,我的秘书对我说你今天早上会来.
[11:22.40]L:Good morning.I have got something to consult with you.
[11:25.84]早上好,我有点儿事向您咨询.
[11:29.29]K:Yes?
[11:30.44]什么事?
[11:31.59]L:Our company is going to purchase 50,000 tons of corn from America on August 20th
[11:36.14]我们公司在8月20日将要从美国购买5万吨玉米.
[11:40.68]and the CIF is 15,000 American dollars per ton.
[11:43.69]它的到崖价是每吨15,000美元.
[11:46.69]40,000 of the consignment have been ordered
[11:48.88]其中4万吨已经被预定了
[11:51.08]by a feed processing plant and a corn starch plant,
[11:53.42]被饲料加工公司和玉米淀粉公司.
[11:55.76]but we have not yet found a buyer for the rest.
[11:57.84]但剩下的1万吨还未找到买主.
[11:59.93]The problem is that the cargo
[12:01.49]问题是这批货物
[12:03.04]will not arrive here from America until 45 days after the purchasing time.
[12:06.44]离开美国后要45天才能到达这里.
[12:09.83]And you are afraid that if the corn price drops in 45 days,
[12:13.58]你担心如果45天后玉米价格下跌的话,
[12:17.33]you will suffer a loss in selling the remaining 10,000 tons of corn.
[12:21.29]你们在销售剩下的1万吨玉米的时候,会蒙受损失.
[12:25.25]L:Yes.I heard there is a method of protecting against the risk on the futures market.
[12:29.19]是的,我听说期货市场上有一种方法可以避免这种风险.
[12:33.14]K:Yes.We call it hedging.There are several kinds of hedging
[12:37.43]是的,这种方法就叫套期保值.套期保值有好几种,
[12:41.73]and anticipatory hedging just suits your situation.
[12:44.42]其中预期性套期保值刚好适合你这种情况.
[12:47.11]L:How should I do the hedging?
[12:48.97]我该怎样做这种套期保值呢?
[12:50.82]K:When you buy the corn on the cash market,
[12:53.51]当你在现货市场买入玉米时,
[12:56.20]you can sell short a futures contract of the same amount of corn on the futures market
[13:00.20]你同时在期货市场上卖出一张同等数量玉米的期货合同,
[13:04.20]in anticipation of the corn price's falling
[13:06.94]因为你预测玉米价格将来会下跌.
[13:09.68]L:Is that what is called "taking a position",
[13:11.97]这是不是就是所谓的"买空卖空"的卖空,
[13:14.25]selling a parcel for forward delivery
[13:16.29]卖出一张货物合同,
[13:18.33]but waiting for the price to go down before actual buying.
[13:20.97]然后等待玉米价格下跌时再买入,这时可赚差价.
[13:23.60]K:Yes.The opposite action is called "buying long".
[13:26.31]是的,卖空的相反做法就是买空.
[13:29.01]When 45 days later,on October 1st,if corn price actually goes down,
[13:33.06]也就是10月1日,如果玉米价格真的下跌,
[13:37.11]say,to 13,000 American dollars per ton,
[13:40.11]比如说跌到每吨13000美元,
[13:43.12]you will get a profit of 2,000 American dollars per ton on the futures market.
[13:46.76]那么你在期货市场平仓后可得到每吨2,000美元的获利.
[13:50.41]This will make up your loss on the cash market.
[13:53.31]这刚好可以弥补你在现货市场上交易的亏空.
[13:56.21]In this way you can successfully control your risk in foreign trade.
[13:59.91]这样,你就成功地控制了你在这宗外贸生意上的风险.
[14:03.62]L:I see.
[14:05.37]我明白了.
[14:07.12]K:Since you have to use American dollars to pay for the corn,
[14:10.22]因为你必须用美元支付这批玉米,
[14:13.32]it is also necessary to do a hedging on foreign currencies.
[14:16.62]所以就涉及到外汇问题,有必要做外汇套期保值.
[14:19.92]L:Thank you very much.
[14:21.22]非常感谢您.
[14:22.51]K:You are welcome.See you later.L:See you.
[14:25.57]不客气,再见. 再见.
[14:28.62]Supplementary Reading Hedging:How It Works
[14:31.82]套期保值如何运作
[14:35.02]The second economic function provided by futures exchanges
[14:37.77]期货交易所提供的第二个经济功能
[14:40.51]is price risk management,also known as hedging.
[14:43.41]是价格风险管理机制,即套期保值功能.
[14:46.31]Hedging,in its simplest form,is
[14:48.06]简而言之,套期保值交易是
[14:49.81]the practice of offsetting the price risk inherent in any cash market position
[14:52.92]抵消存在于期货市场头寸中价格风险的贸易
[14:56.03]by buying or selling futures contracts.
[14:58.68]通过买卖期货合约.
[15:01.33]Notes:
[15:03.92]Hedging,in its simplest form,is the practice of offsetting the price risk
[15:08.90]inherent in any cash market position by buying or selling futures contracts.
[15:15.20]Notes:position,
[15:23.09]a long position,a short position,
[15:28.10]long position,short position,
[15:33.20]exchange position,interest rate position,
[15:39.10]swap position,square position,outright position
[15:47.91]Hedgers use the futures market to protect their businesses
[15:50.65]套期保值者利用期货市场保护其现货业务,
[15:53.39]from adverse price changes
[15:54.89]不利价格波动,
[15:56.40]that could negatively impact the bottom-line profitability of their business.
[15:59.29]以回避对其业务获利底线形成负面影响的
[16:02.19]Hedging can benefit anyone including grain elevator operators,
[16:04.85]无论任何人,如那些粮食仓储商、
[16:07.50]merchandisers,producers,exporters,or processors
[16:09.74]商人、生产商、出口商或加工商
[16:11.99]who produce,handle,or process
[16:14.50]他们生产储蓄或加工
[16:17.01]any of the agricultural commodities traded on futures exchanges.
[16:19.64]在交易所上市之农产品等均可获利于套取保值.
[16:22.28]Hedging is a two-step process.
[16:24.37]套期保值交易动作可分为两个阶段.
[16:26.46]Depending upon a hedger's cash market situation,
[16:29.11]套期保值者根据自己在现货市场的处境,
[16:31.76]the hedger would either buy or sell futures as the first position.
[16:34.31]可通过买进或卖出期货合约来建立第一个期货市场头寸.
[16:36.86]Parties who have bought a futures contract are said to have taken a long position.
[16:40.20]购买期货合约的购买者被认为是处在市场多头.
[16:43.55]Parties who have sold a futures contract are said to have taken a short position
[16:47.29]出售期货合约的出售者被认为是处在市场空头.
[16:51.04]A long position involves inflows greater than outflows in a currency
[16:54.30]多头是一种货币的流入大于流出,
[16:57.55]and a short position involved outflows greater than inflows.
[17:00.80]而空头指一种货币的流出大于流入.
[17:04.05]Then,at a later date,before the futures hedger would take a second position
[17:06.95]然后,在近期某一日,保值者通过做一相反的交易
[17:09.85]opposite the opening transaction.
[17:11.90]而对原头寸进行对冲,
[17:13.95]The opening and closing positions of the hedge must be for the same commodity,
[17:16.85]针对原持有的多头或空头期货头寸进行的两手交易的商品、必须完全一致,
[17:19.75]number of contracts,and delivery month.
[17:22.05]无论是合约数量还是交割月份都必须一致.
[17:24.35]In a nutshell,a hedge is placed by taking a futures position
[17:26.54]简言之,期货保值就是指在期货市场上采取
[17:28.74]opposite to the position held in the cash market,
[17:30.83]和现货市场头寸方向相反,
[17:32.92]and exactly equivalent in value.
[17:34.97]而价值完全相等的合约部位的交易.
[17:37.02]Whether establishing a short or a long hedge,
[17:39.02]无论是建立空头套期保值头寸还是建立多头套期保值尺寸,
[17:41.02]the main objective is to offset the price risk
[17:43.26]进行套期保值交易的主要目的均为对冲价格风险,
[17:45.51]associated with buying,selling,or holding grain.
[17:48.75]伴随买入、卖出或持有商品而引发的价格风险. |