Published reports say CIA officers are at work inside Libya. But just what they are doing is not clear and, in keeping with practice, the CIA would not comment on the reports. The Obama administration has said it has not yet decided whether to arm the Libyan rebels. But, there is much the CIA may be doing in Libya short of that.
有报导说，美国中情局特工在利比亚境内活动，不过不清楚他们具体做什么。跟往常一样，中情局对这些报导不做任何评论。奥巴马政府表示尚未决定是否给利比亚反政府武装提供武器。不过即便如此，中情局仍然可以在利比亚做很多事情。
Analysts say it should come of no surprise that the CIA is already at work in Libya. Reva Bhalla, Middle East analyst for the private intelligence firm, Stratfor, says gathering intelligence is the most basic function of the CIA.
分析人士指出，中情局在利比亚境内开展活动并不令人感到意外。私营情报公司斯达福的中东分析员瑞瓦·巴勒表示，搜集情报是中情局最基本的工作。
"Obviously when you have a military campaign like this under way you’re going to need people on the ground, painting [identifying] targets for air strikes, [and] not only on the military aspect but just in trying to figure out just who is the opposition - who are they actually dealing with, are there any viable leaders who show the potential for unifying this very fractious country," said Bhalla.
他说：“很显然，在展开这类军事行动时，需要有人在地面，确定空袭目标。这不仅仅只为了满足军事需要，而且还要知道反对派到底是什么人，他们在和谁打交道，利比亚到底有没有可能团结这个支离破碎国家的领袖人物。”
Beyond gathering intelligence
According to published accounts, an unknown number of CIA officers, along with British intelligence and special forces counterparts, are working with the Libyan rebels. The CIA has its own paramilitary component, known as the Special Activities Division. But what the CIA might be doing in Libya beyond just gathering intelligence is unclear.
根据一些报导，数目不详的中情局特工，以及英国情报机关和特种部队人员，正与利比亚反政府武装接触。中情局有自己的准军事单位叫特别行动部。但是除了搜集情报，中情局在利比亚的其他行动，不为外界所了解。
By all accounts, the Libyan rebels are poorly trained and equipped. They made some advances, but have been pushed back by Libyan army counterattacks. The Obama administration has said it has not yet decided to arm the Libyan rebels, but has said firmly it will not send in U.S. ground troops, preferring to stick with the enforcement of the no-fly zone.
利比亚反政府武装没有受过良好训练，装备也非常差。他们取得了一点进展，但在利比亚军队的反攻下溃退下来。奥巴马政府尚未决定是否给反政府武装提供武器，但已明确表态不会派地面部队进入利比亚，同时保证禁飞区的真正实施。
Offering what he says are personal views, former senior CIA officer Emile Nakhleh says it is likely the CIA is providing some form of non-lethal assistance to the rebels, especially in terms of communications and organization.
前中情局资深特工艾米隆· 纳克勒个人认为，中情局很可能正给利比亚反政府武装提供一些非杀伤性的援助，特别是在通讯和组织方面。
"They probably would provide them with communications gear, from the most basic walkie-talkies to a bit more advanced cellular telephones," said Nakhleh. "Two, they might perhaps help train them in how to attack or how to anticipate Gadhafi’s attacks. I mean, the fact is, they’re just a bunch of ragtag enthusiastic opposition people to the regime but have no idea even of how to organize."
他说：“中情局很可能提供一些通讯设备，从最基本的对讲机到高级一点的移动电话等。其次，他们可能帮助训练反政府武装如何攻击，如何防备卡扎菲的攻击。我的意思是，反政府武装事实上只是一帮充满热情的、反对现政权的乌合之众，他们甚至不知道如何组织起来。”
Nakhleh believes, however, that there is nothing stopping CIA officers from training the rebels on captured weapons.
不过，纳克勒相信，中情局特工会毫不犹豫地训练反政府武装如何使用缴获的武器。
"We would need to train them how to use the weapons they have already captured from the Gadhafi forces. Some of them have captured some of these rockets and they don’t know how to fire them. So we can, I think, do all kinds of things before, even way below, the level of arming them with U.S. arms," said the former CIA officer.
他说：“我们需要训练反政府武装如何使用他们从卡扎菲军队手中缴获的武器。他们缴获了一些火箭，却不知如何发射。我想，我们有许多事可做，而不是提供美国武器。”
But many analysts believe that for the rebels to turn the tide back in their favor, they will need sophisticated weapons, such as those the U.S. provided to Afghan rebels fighting Soviet occupation in the 1980s - and specialized training on how to use them.
但很多分析人士认为，利比亚反政府武装如果要反败为胜，需要一些先进武器，比如美国在80年代提供给阿富汗反叛力量用以抗击入侵苏军的那些装备，并提供有关武器使用的专门训练。
Secret authorization
According to published accounts quoting Obama administration sources, President Barack Obama signed a secret authorization, known as a presidential “finding,” authorizing possible future training and arming of the rebels.
一些报导援引奥巴马政府的消息说，奥巴马总统已经签署了一项密令，授权未来可能要给利比亚反政府武装提供武器装备和相关训练。
But such a program carries great risks. In 1961, a CIA-trained force made an unsuccessful attempt to land at the Bay of Pigs in Cuba and topple Fidel Castro. It was a humiliation for the then-new president, John F. Kennedy.
但是这样的行动有很大风险。1961年，一支美国中情局训练的小分队试图登陆古巴的猪湾，颠覆卡斯特罗政权。后来行动失败，丢尽了当时新任总统约翰·肯尼迪的脸面。
In the 1980s, the CIA, in concert with Pakistan, armed and trained anti-Soviet Afghan rebels. The rebels, known as mujahedin, drove the Soviet army out, but many of their members went on to form the nucleus of the Taliban and al-Qaida. And many of the sophisticated weapons the mujahedin received, such as shoulder-held surface-to-air missiles, were unaccounted for at war’s end.
上世纪80年代，中情局与巴基斯坦一起装备并训练了对付苏军的阿富汗反抗组织圣战者，他们最终赶走了苏联军队，但其中很多人后来却成了塔利班和基地组织的中坚力量。而他们手中的很多先进武器，如肩扛式地对空导弹等，在战争结束后就不知去向了。
Reva Bhalla says the governments involved in the anti-Gadhafi coalition are worried about both a kind of Bay of Pigs in the desert, where the rebels are defeated, and possible infiltration of the rebels by radical Islamists.
巴勒谈到，参与反卡扎菲联盟的各国政府担心，猪湾的失败会在沙漠上重现，利比亚反政府武装会被击溃，而且被激进的伊斯兰教主义者渗透。
"I think that’s the biggest question that’s on the minds of many of these governments because it just isn’t clear," said Bhalla. "This is not a very sophisticated or militarily capable opposition force. And then there’s the concern of whether some of the more Islamist militant types are mixed in within this opposition. And if they’re going to be moved to arm and supply these rebels, is that something that is going to have serious blowback down the line.
他说：“我想，这是反卡扎菲联盟各国政府心中最大的问题，因为一切都不明朗。利比亚反政府武装的组织能力和军事能力都不强。他们还担心反对派中是否混有更激进的伊斯兰教主义者。一旦给反政府武装提供武器装备，也许后果将不堪设想。”
What the CIA actually ends up doing in Libya may never be publicly known. But, as former CIA officers have pointed out, the larger an operation, the more difficult it is to keep it secret.
中情局在利比亚到底做些什么事情，公众也许永远不会知道。不过，正如中情局前特工所说的那样，行动规模越大，就越难保密。 |