分析者: 阿拉伯的崛起可能重绘中东的版图（在线收听）

Analysts: Arab Uprisings Could Redraw Middle East Map 分析者: 阿拉伯的崛起可能重绘中东的版图

LONDON — With civil war raging in Syria and the conflict threatening to draw in neighboring states, there is speculation about possible geopolitical consequences. Analysts say the map of the Middle East could be redrawn for the first time in a century.

伦敦 — 随着叙利亚激烈的内战和战争威胁到了周边国家，可能会有边缘政治的投机买卖的产生。分析者说，中东 可能在这个世纪里首次从新划分土地。

The end of WWI almost 100 years ago signaled the death of the Ottoman Empire.

在100多年前，一战结束的时候，就标志着奥斯曼帝国的灭亡。

Even before the guns fell silent, Britain and France agreed to carve up Ottoman lands, including Syria, Lebanon, Jordan and Palestine. That was key to understanding the modern Middle East said Michael Clarke, head of the Royal United Services Institute in London.

甚至是在这些枪声消失之前，英国和法国都想得到奥斯曼帝国的土地，包括有叙利亚，黎巴嫩，约旦，巴勒斯坦。伦敦皇家联合服务研究所的主席Michael Clarke说，这是了解中世纪历史的关键所在。

“The Arab world as we know it was established effectively in 1916 by the British and the French in the Sykes-Picot agreement. And it hasn’t changed, hardly at all since then. Nothing very strategic has happened apart from the establishment of the state of Israel in 1948. And now, this year, for the first time, the map of the Middle East is beginning to be pulled apart,” he said.

“我们所知道的阿拉伯在1916年的英国和法国签署“塞克斯——皮科尔协定”上真正建立了他的王国。 从那时以来，它几乎完全没有改变，也没什么特别的策略出现，除了1948年，以色列的建立。如今，这一年，第一次中东的土地开始分崩离析。\

That is being felt most in Syria. The country could fragment, said Robert Lowe of the Middle East Center at the London School of Economics.

首先会在叙利亚开始出现，这个国家以破裂的不像话。中东中心的伦敦经济学院的Robert Lowe说。

“The balances of power between so many competing elements at the moment seem almost quite equal. It’s hard any one faction gaining much control. The Kurds have gained a lot of control over their towns and they’re struggling and working to sustain that,” he said.

“这么多竞争国家的权利的平衡看上去是平等的。任何一个国家想获得更多的控制权都是很困难的。库尔德人获得了超过他们城市以外的一些控制权，他们在苦苦的维持着这种权利。“

When WWI ended, the Kurds were split among Syria, Turkey, Iran and Iraq.

当一战结束，库尔德人从叙利亚，土耳其，伊朗和伊拉克里头分裂出来了。

The downfall of Saddam Hussein in Iraq in 2003 - and Kurdish autonomy in northern Iraq - emboldened Kurdish claims for an independent state.

萨达姆2003年在伊拉克的垮台-和在伊拉克南部的自治，都壮大了库尔德人开始成为一个独立国的主张。

But Iraq has shown reslience, said Professor Saad Jawad, also at the London School of Economics.

伊拉克开始展示出他们的自信了。同在伦敦经济学院的教授 Saad Jawad说。。

“First, that they are not prone to go into civil war. Total civil war I mean, like the one Lebanon witnessed in the seventies. And the second thing, that there are no real popular intentions to split the country, even in Iraqi Kurdistan, apart from the parties,” said the professor.

“首先，他们是不会加入内战的。我指的事总内战，就像七十年代的黎巴嫩一样。第二，不能有分裂国家的意图 ，即使是在伊拉克的库尔德斯坦。

The scars of Lebanon’s recent civil war are still visible across the capital, Beirut. There are fears that this country too could be torn apart as the Syrian conflict reignites Lebanese rivalries.

最近战争对黎巴嫩的伤害在首都贝鲁特随处可见。那里充满着国家会像叙利亚和黎巴嫩一样重燃战火，可能被分裂的恐惧 。

In recent months, dozens have been killed in clashes between rival Sunni and Shi'ite militants.

最近的几个月里，有很多人都在逊尼和叶什的激进分子的冲突中被杀害。

The forces unleashed by the Arab uprising could re-draw parts of the Middle East, said Michael Clarke.

由崛起的阿拉伯派出的军队能够重组中东的版图， Michael Clarke说。

“There is a possibility of the Balkanization of the Levant, where we’ll end up with a series of states, semi-states, contested areas, and disputes. And that is new territory for all of us,” he said.

“可能有一些levant（地中海东部地区）的巴尔干化（地区割据），我们将会终结一些一个州，半个州, 或者有地区争议的地区，和争端地区。这是我们大家全新的领土。

But Clarke said the revolutions across the Arab world were in the early stage and the consequences may not be known for years to come. 

但是 Clarke说阿拉伯在早期的革命，所产生的后果会要在多年以后才显示出来