Two state elections have upturned German politics两个州的选举反转德国政局

　　THE Greens are the “against party”. They are against a flashy rail project in Stuttgart, against nuclear power and, say their critics, against progress and growth. Yet on March 27th the party’s defiance paid off in stunning fashion. German angst over the nuclear disaster in Japan crested just as two south-western states held elections. In Rhineland-Palatinate the Green vote tripled, vaulting the party into government as junior partner of the Social Democratic Party (SPD), which had previously ruled alone. In Baden-Württemberg 58 years of government by the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) came to an end. The Greens will now take control of a state government for the first time.

　　德国的绿党是个“反对党”。他们反对斯图加特花哨的铁路工程，反对核能，而且据他们批评者称，他们反对发展进步。然而，就在3月27号这一天，他们的反抗获得了惊人的回报。西南部两个州举行选举之时，正值德国民众因日本核危机而担忧，在莱茵兰—普法尔茨州，绿党的得票数增至原来的三倍，使其成为该州原本唯一的执政党——社会民主党新的联合执政党。在巴登—符腾堡州，执政长达58年的基民盟（CDU）面临下台。绿党将首次成为该州的执政党。

　　This almost-unthinkable result is a big blow to Angela Merkel, the chancellor and CDU leader, who has lost the party’s crown jewel. Her pre-election decision to shut down seven nuclear-power plants looked panicky rather than principled, and may have made matters worse for the CDU. The elections were an even bigger setback for her coalition partner, the Free Democrats (FDP).But the SPD also has little to cheer about: its share of the vote was the lowest in half a century in Rhineland-Palatinate and the lowest ever in Baden-Württemberg, where it will become the junior coalition partner. Only the Greens have reason to celebrate.

　　这个意想不到的结果对安吉拉??默克尔是一个巨大的打击。作为德国总理和基民盟领袖，她失去了基民盟执政的一个传统重镇。她在选举前决定关闭七座核电站。这个决定更像是仓促之举而不是坚持原则，并使得基民盟的情势更糟。选举结果对她的执政伙伴自民党是个更大的挫折。然而社民党也没有什么值得庆贺的：他们在莱茵兰—普法尔茨州的得票率降至半个世纪以来的最低点；在巴符州的得票率则是有史以来的最低点。这使得社民党成为巴符州绿党的联合执政党。只有绿党有欢庆的理由。

　　The party’s offices in Stuttgart, Baden-Württemberg’s capital, look readier for protests and demonstrations than for the assumption of government responsibility. Yellow drums done up to look like nuclear-waste containers are stacked by the door. Bamboo poles for hoisting banners rest against them. Yet the ready-to-rally impression is somewhat misleading. Baden-Württemberg’s Greens are on the party’s “extreme realist” wing, says Dieter Fuchs of the University of Stuttgart.The incoming premier, Winfried Kretschmann, belongs to the Central Committee of German Catholics and to a traditional shooting club. His down-to-earth Swabian manner matches the state’s spirit better than did the conservative pugnacity of Stefan Mappus, the premier he defeated. The export-oriented Mittelstand has nothing to fear, he suggests. “You can be in the black with green ideas,” he said in an interview shortly before the election.

　　位于巴符州省会斯图加特市的绿党办公部门，看起来更像是在为抗议和示威作准备，而不是承担政府责任。做成核废料集装箱样子的黄色大鼓堆放在门口，对面放着举旗的竹竿。这种即将举行集会的印象多少会让人产生误解。斯图加特大学的迪特尔??福克斯说，巴符州的绿党属于该党中的“极端现实主义”派系。即将上台的总理温弗里德??科瑞奇曼是德国天主教徒中央委员会成员，并加入了一个传统射击俱乐部。他的斯瓦比亚现实主义做派，与败北的前总理史蒂芬??马普斯的保守好战相比，更契合该州的精神。他暗示出口导向型的中小企业无需恐慌。“你可以做一个持绿色观点的黑党。”他在选举即将开始前的采访中说道。

　　That is what he must now prove if the Greens are to be more than a one-term wonder. Voters rewarded them for their stance on nuclear power. But on issues that usually matter more, like jobs, economic policy and education, they rate the Greens below the CDU and even the SPD.

　　这正是他现在必须向大家证明的一点——如果绿党不想让自己的胜利只是昙花一现。选民因为他们在核能上的立场而支持他们。然而在更重要的问题——例如工作、经济政策和教育上，他们认为绿党的能力不如基民盟，甚至是社民党。

　　Mr Kretschmann cannot do much on nuclear power, because it is a federal domain.Two of Baden-Württemberg’s four nuclear reactors were turned off after the Japanese disaster, which is both a curse and a blessing for the new government. Mr Mappus recently paid 5 billion ($7 billion) for a 45% stake in their operator. The Greens’ contribution is a planned “energy transformation”, to be achieved partly by speeding up approvals for wind turbines. The state CDU had resisted wind farms, which it derided for producing the Verspargelung (“asparagusing”) of the countryside, the sort of gibe that one hears more often from Green protesters. Now the Greens must promote progress that others recognise as such.

　　科瑞奇曼很难在核能问题上有所作为，因为这属于联邦的负责领域。巴符州四座核反应堆中，有两个在日本核危机发生后被关闭。这对于新的政府来说喜忧参半。马普斯最近拨款50亿马克（70亿美元）作为他们经营者45%的股份。绿党的贡献则是一个“能量转换”计划。该计划部分通过加快批准风力涡轮机而实现。该州的基民盟曾反对风力发电厂，并嘲笑它们是乡下生产Verspargelung （一种芦笋）的。这种讥讽的话经常可以从绿党抗议者那里听到。现在，绿党必须取得能为其他政党所认可的进步。

　　The problem, Mr Kretschmann and his party think, is that the government is too bossy. He proposes a “citizen society” that would recruit ordinary people to collaborate on big projects. He wants to lower hurdles for initiating referendums, to bring people into the early stages of project planning and to strengthen the legislature, which under the CDU was subservient to the executive. The big test is Stuttgart 21, a rail project that provoked months of mass protests that the Greens joined but the SPD did not. After a “stress test” to see if Stuttgart 21 can do what it promises, both parties want a referendum. Any outcome may discomfit Mr Kretschmann. If the project is stopped, Baden-Württemberg will be forced to pay contractors hundreds of millions in fees that it can ill afford. If not, the new premier may find himself boring tunnels while his former comrades march in protest overhead.

　　科瑞奇曼和他的政党认为，问题在于政府过于专制。他认为，一个“公民社会”应该允许普通公民参与协作重大项目。他希望能降低初选投票的门槛，从而让更多人参与到项目计划的早期阶段。他还希望加强立法机构的职能。他指出，基民盟执政时期，立法机构只是执行部门的附庸。一个铁路工程——“斯图加特21”是对政党的一个重大考验。绿党参加了由该工程引发的持续数月的群众抗议，而社民党没有。在对斯图加特21是否能履行承诺进行了一个“压力测试”后，两个政党都希望进行全民公投。无论结果如何都会使科瑞奇曼为难。如果项目被中止，巴符州需要向承包商偿付数亿费用，而这对它难以承受。如果项目不中止，新总理则不得不继续一项他的同僚曾游行抗议的项目。

　　In government the Greens will inevitably suffer wear and tear. Relations with the SPD, happy to be in power but shocked not to be in charge, may be tricky. Some of the Greens’ goals, like scrapping university-tuition fees, clash with others, such as narrowing the budget deficit. But the opportunity is great. The party has been trying to escape from its environmental ghetto. If Mr Kretschmann manages Germany’s showcase economy well, it will help.

　　在政府中，绿党不可避免的遭遇摩擦。和社民党的关系以及兴奋过后发现竟然不能掌权，这些都是棘手的问题。绿党的一些目标（如废除大学学费）会与其他政党产生冲突（如缩减预算赤字）。然而机遇还是一片大好。绿党正在努力跳出其环保主义的狭隘圈子。如果科瑞奇曼能够搞定德国表面上的经济问题，将对此大有裨益。

　　Nuclear panic alone does not explain the Greens’ success. The party appeals most to groups whose share of the electorate is growing: relatively young, middle-class urbanites with a good education. Its leadership is a harmonious quartet, two men and two women who appeal to different groups of voters, notes Oskar Niedermayer of Berlin’s Free University. It has shed its radicalism and, at least in theory, now embraces economic growth. It is now “clearly in double-digit territory,” says Mr Niedermayer. It is far from being a broad-based Volkspartei like the CDU and SPD, but it is happy in its expanding niche.

　　对核能的恐慌并不能解释绿党全部的胜利原因。该政党对日益庞大的相对年轻、受过良好教育的城市中产阶级选民群体最具吸引力。他的领导班子是一个和谐的四重奏：两男两女。他们各自吸引着不同的选民群体。而奥斯卡??内德梅耶则来自柏林自由大学。他们已经流露出自己的激进主义，并至少在理论上承诺经济增长，并将其 “明确在两位数的范围”，内德梅耶说。它与经验老道的基民盟以及社民党相比尚有很大差距，然而他们在自己扩张的领域中自得其乐。

　　As for Mrs Merkel, she is bruised but not broken. The CDU remains the largest party in Baden-Württemberg and it almost beat the SPD in Rhineland-Palatinate. “There are not that many countries where a party in government is stable at 35-37% nationwide,” says Peter Altmaier, a CDU leader in the Bundestag. “The chancellor’s rivals within the CDU have either resigned or lost elections. “For the first time she no longer has natural enemies in the party,” says Mr Altmaier. Now she is “free to develop her own project a little bit more clearly than in the past.

　　对于默克尔而言，她大受挫折但还不至于一败涂地。基民盟仍是巴符州最大的政党，而且，在莱茵兰—普法尔茨州，他们差一点就可以击败社民党。联邦议院的一位基民盟领导人彼得??奥特梅尔说：“一个政党可以在国家35-37%范围内保持稳定执政，这在其他国家并不多见。”默克尔在基民盟内部的竞争对手或是辞职或是在选举中落败。“她第一次在党内没了对手。”奥特梅尔说。现在，她正在“比以往略显清晰地自由发展她的计划。”

　　It may sound eerily like the Greens’ idea: marrying the market economy to “sustainability”. Mrs Merkel’s hasty abandonment of her government’s first energy policy, which was to squeeze more power out of ageing nuclear plants, hurt her credibility. Its successor, she thinks, may find new supporters. With the FDP likely to become a more awkward partner (see box), Mrs Merkel may need an alternative after the federal election in 2013. The Greens, seasoned by government in Baden-Württemberg, might just fit the bill.

　　将市场经济与可持续发展相结合——这听起来有些像绿党的想法。默克尔轻率地抛弃了她起初的能源政策，即利用老化的核工场生产出更多的能源。这使得默克尔信誉受损。她认为，接下来的政策会得到新的合作者的支持。随着与民主自由党执政联盟伙伴关系的恶化，默克尔在联邦选举后需要新的合作伙伴。被巴符州政府调教过的绿党，可能刚好符合要求。