公众人物毕业演讲第142期:2012年Michael Lewis普林斯顿大学(6)（打印版）

　　In front of millions of people each of them think they are an expert on what are good baseball plaers

　　有几百万人评价他们的一举一动他们中的每一个人都认为他们是成为优秀棒球运动员方面的专家

　　They had statistics attached to every move they made on their job

　　他们做的每一件事都有数据统计

　　And yet they were misvalued because the wider world was blind to their luck

　　但他们却被错估了因为这个世界忽视了他们的运气成分

　　So I think you have to ask if a professional athlete paid millions of dollars a year can be misvalued who can't be?

　　所以你不得不问如果一个百万美元身价的职业球员可以被错估那谁不会被错估呢？

　　If the supposedly pure meritocracy of professional sports can't distinguish between lucky and good, who can?

　　如果完全奉行精英主义的职业体坛无法区分好运和优异谁又能够区分呢？

　　The Moneyball story has practical implications

　　《点球成金》这个故事具有实际意义

　　If you use better data, you can find better values there are always market inefficiencies to exploit, and so on

　　如果你使用更好的数据你可以找到更好的价值总会存在价值有待挖掘的市场低效配置等等

　　But it has a broader and less practical message don't be deceived by life's outcomes

　　但它有一个更广泛而不那么实际的信息不要被生活的结果蒙骗

　　Life's outcomes, while not entirely random have a huge amount of luck baked into them

　　生活的结果虽不是完全随机的却掺杂了很多运气成分在其中

　　Above all, recognize that if you have had success you have also had luck, and with luck comes obligation

　　最重要的是要认识到如果你获得成功你也同时曾获得好运而运气带来义务

　　You owe a debt, and not just to your Gods

　　你欠了一笔债不只是欠你的神

　　You owe a debt to the unlucky

　　你也欠那些没你那么好运的人的债

　　I make this point because—along with this speech it is something that will be easy for you to forget

　　我特别提出这一点是因为和这个演讲一样这将是你很容易遗忘的东西

　　I now live in Berkeley, California

　　我现在住在加州伯克利

　　A few years ago, just a few blocks from my home a pair of researchers in the Cal psychology department staged an experiment

　　几年前就在离我家几个街区远的地方加大心理系的几个研究人员搞了一个实验

　　They began by grabbing students like you to use like lab rats

　　他们像抓小白鼠一样找来了一批学生

　　Then they broke the students into teams, segregated by sex

　　然后他们给学生分组按性别分开

　　Three men, or three women, per team

　　每组三个男生或者三个女生

　　Then they put these teams of three into a room and arbitrarily assigned one member of the team to be the leader

　　然后他们让这样的小组进到房间里然后随机选取三人中的一个作为组长

　　Then they gave them some complicated moral problem to solve say what should be done about academic cheating or how to regulate drinking on campus

　　然后他们让他们处理各种复杂的道德问题比如说应该如何对待学术造假或者如何控制校园酗酒问题

　　人物简介

　　当莘莘学子走出象牙塔，迈向社会，怎样做好从学子到社会人的华丽转变呢？我们可以从风云学长们的成长故事和忠告中获得些什么呢？面对一份收益优厚的工作，对于自己怀揣的梦想，你会做出怎样的抉择？或许，2012年普林斯顿大学Michael Lewis的毕业演讲能够让你有所收获。