VOA常速英语2105--IMF敦促美国推迟加息至2016（在线收听）

IMF敦促美国推迟加息至2016

The International Monetary Fund is urging the U.S. central bank to delay its planned interest rate hike until 2016. Although the IMF says the underpinnings for continued growth are still in place, IMF Managing Director Christine Lagarde says recent data suggest U.S. growth is likely to remain subpar. Her comments reflect new concerns about the world's largest economy, which shrank 0.7 percent in the first three months of the year.

国际货币基金组织敦促美国央行将原计划的加息延迟到2016年，尽管IMF称继续增长的基础仍在，其总裁克里斯汀娜·拉加德称最近的数据表明美国增长可能仍欠佳。她的言论表明人们对世界最大经济体的新的担忧，今年第一季度美国经济萎缩了0.7%。

Earlier optimism about the U.S. economy has faded a bit, after new data showed momentum slowing between January and March – the result of a harsh winter and a stronger U.S. dollar that has made U.S. goods more expensive abroad.

之前对美国经济的乐观情绪有所减退，这是因为有最新数据表明1月份到3月份之间增长势头减缓，这是因为严冬和强势美元使得美国商品在海外变得更贵。

IMF chief Christine Lagarde says raising U.S. rates too soon could result in significant market volatility around the world.

IMF总裁克里斯汀娜·拉加德称，美国过早加息会导致全球范围内巨大的市场动荡。

“In weighing this risk, we think that there is a case for waiting to raise rates until there are more tangible signs of wage or price inflation than are currently evident. So, in other words, we believe that a rate hike would be better off in early 2016," said Lagarde.

“就衡量风险来说，我想我们有理由等到有更切实的迹象表明工资或价格上涨比目前更明显的时候再加息，也就是说，我们认为在2016年初加息比较好。”

Buoyed by a steady improvement in the labor market, the central bank had signaled a modest rate hike by the middle of the year, its first in nearly nine years. But the contraction in the first quarter and a slowdown in spending suggest consumers remain wary. Consumer spending rose only 1.8 percent in the first three months of 2015 – a surprisingly modest increase given the more than five percent jump in disposable income, says Federal Reserve board member Lael Brainard.

受到劳工市场平稳好转的鼓励，央行发出信号，表示会在今年年中温和加息，这是近9年来的第一次。但第一季度的收缩和开支减少表明消费者仍很警惕。2015年第一季度消费者开支只增长了1.8%，与可支配收入5%的增长相比，这个增速不温不火，这一点令人吃惊，美联储董事会成员莱尔·布瑞拉德如是说。

“Continuing softness in consumption this year would naturally raise some questions about whether there’s a more persistent change afoot – in particular, whether the financial crisis may have caused consumers to be more cautious about spending gains in income and wealth that are perceived to be temporary," said Brainard.

“今年消费不振的继续自然让人们质疑是否会发生持续的改变，尤其是，金融危机是否已经导致消费者在开支方面更加谨慎，是否人们收入和财富的增加是暂时的。”

But others believe the U.S. slowdown was an aberration. Ethan Harris, head of global economics research at Bank of America Merrill Lynch, expects a rate hike in September.

但也有人认为美国增长的放缓是反常的，美洲银行全球经济研究负责人伊桑·哈里森预测9月份会加息。

“Relative to where we were say a few years ago, the banking sector is in much better health, the housing market’s improving, we don’t have any major fiscal shocks going on right now, we don’t have a fiscal cliff looming, we don’t have a shutdown looming in Washington, so you kind of take a better backdrop for the economy in terms of healing," said Harris.

“与几年前相比，银行业发展比较健康，房屋市场也在好转，目前并没有发生重大的财政动荡，也没有财政悬崖出现，华盛顿也没有要关门，所以在经济复苏方面我们的处境不错。”

A new survey of the American Bankers Association's top economists predicts a rebound in the second half of the year, but the IMF has downgraded its forecast for U.S. economic growth from 3.1 percent to 2.5 percent in 2015.

美国银行家协会对高级经济学家的最新调查预测今年下半年会发生回弹，但IMF已经将美国2015年的经济发展预测从3.1%调低到2.5%。