VOA常速英语2015--美联储加息可能性很大（在线收听）

美联储加息可能性很大

Until the recent stock turmoil triggered by the slowdown in China, many expected a September rate hike. But uncertainty over global economic growth muddied the waters. Even job numbers showing U.S. unemployment at a seven-year low have not eased concerns, says Bankrate.com’s Mark Hamrick on Skype.

由于中国经济放缓导致全球股市震动，业内人士预测9月将上调利率。然而，却让全球经济增长的不稳定性搅了局。Bankrate公司专家马克·哈姆里克在Skype上称，尽管美国失业人口达到了7年以来的最低值，但这并没有缓解人们对它的担心程度。

“This August jobs report neither flashes a green light for the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates, nor does it flash a red light. Meaning, that it is still in this caution zone,”

8月份的就业报告既没有让联邦储蓄为增加利率而亮绿灯，也没有亮红灯。这就说明它仍然在警戒线以内。

The caution reflects the Fed’s dual mandate,full employment and stable prices. Hiking rates too soon could spark deflation and its ripple effects says Joseph Minarik, head of research at the Committee for Economic Development.

这样的担心反映了联邦储蓄的“双重使命”，稳定价格，充分就业。经济发展委员会研究部主任约瑟夫·米纳雷克称，增加利率将导致通货膨胀等一系列连锁反应。

If the Federal Reserve raises interest rates too quickly and too much and deters demand, particularly for major purchases in the economy, the result can be a cascading reduction – starting with consumer demand, going on to employment.

如果联邦储蓄立即增加利率，这将抑制消费需求，特别是减少主要采购量，其结果将会是消费需求的锐减，其次是就业人口。

The International Monetary Fund urges the Fed to wait until at least next year.

国际货币基金组织敦促联邦储蓄要至少等到明年才可以上调利率。

IMF William Murray：We continue to believe that the Federal Reserve can afford to hold interest rates low until there are more tangible signs of wage or price inflation.

在此次商业周期结束之前，联邦储蓄需要将联邦基金保持在200基点或以上的范围（2%），所以，当经济衰退到来时，它们将提供支持。

But delay also carries risks. Among them, few policy options when the U.S. economy hits another downturn says Joe Brusuelas, a financial consulting firm McGladrey.

但是，这样做也存在风险。McGladrey财务咨询公司首席经济学家Joe Brusuelas称，如果美国经济再遇低迷，那么相应的政策选择将少之又少。

“The Fed needs, before this business cycle ends, to get the Federal Funds rate somewhere at or above 200 basis points (2 percent), so when the inevitable recession comes, they can have firepower.”

在此次商业周期结束之前，联邦储蓄需要将联邦基金保持在200基点或以上的范围（2%），所以，当经济衰退到来时，它们将提供支持。

But the Fed is keeping all options open. That's a worry for a market that likes certainty, says Maria Fiorini Ramirez at consulting firm MFR.

Maria Fiorini Ramirez公司称，但是联邦储蓄依旧拥有如此多的选择。那么，这对于喜欢稳定的经济市场来说前景担忧。

We’ve all been on pins and needles in terms of when they’re going to do it," "So either they should say that because of weaker growth and all the other reasons that they eloquently discuss, say that 'we’re not going to do anything' or just do it and say: 'this is it for now.'

就他们何时采取行动，我们总会坐立不安。所以，不管他们是因为经济疲软，还是其他不采取措施的原因，也或者会说现在就要采取行动。

Anyone seeking clarity will have to wait. No announcement is expected until after members of the Federal Open Market Committee meet September 16 and 17.

所有人都在等待事情明了化。9月16-17日，联邦公开市场委员会委员将召开会议，在这之前或将不会发表任何声明。