Aging Populations

 

人口老龄化

What is making the world so much older?

是什么让全世界的人口日益老龄化？

There are two long-term causes and a temporary blip that will continue to show up in the figures for the next few decades.

这是由两个长期原因和一个暂时现象造成的，并且在未来的几十年里，这些因素还将继续存在下去。

The first of the big causes is that people everywhere are living far longer than they used to,and this trend started with the industrial revolution and has been slowly gathering pace.

第一个主要原因是，与以前相比，现在人们的寿命长得多，这一趋势在工业革命时期就初现端倪，之后逐渐变得越来越明显。

In 1900 average life expectancy at birth for the world as a whole was only around 30 years,and in rich countries under 50.

1900年，世界人口的平均寿命大概只有30岁，而富国国民的平均寿命也不到50岁。

The figures now are 67 and 78 respectively, and still rising.

如今，这两个数字已分别上升至67岁和78岁，而且还在一直上升。

For all the talk about the coming old-age crisis,that is surely something to be grateful for-especially since older people these days also seem to remain healthy, fit and active for much longer.

尽管人们对即将到来的老龄化危机众说纷纭，但有些事情还是值得我们庆幸的—特别是看到现在的老年人寿命更长，并且健康自在。

A second, and bigger, cause of the ageing of societies is that people everywhere are having far fewer children,so the younger age groups are much too small to counterbalance the growing number of older people.

第二个原因就是世界各地新生人口数量越来越少，结果导致年轻人群数量过少，无法和不断增长的老龄人数持平，这也是造成社会老龄化更主要的原因。

This trend emerged later than the one for longer lives,first in developed countries and now in poor countries too.

与人均寿命不断延长的趋势相比，这一趋势出现的时间相对较晚，而且首先出现在发达国家，现已蔓延到贫穷国家。

In the early 1970s women across the world were still,on average, having 4.3 children each.

20世纪70年代早期，全球妇女人均生育率仍为4.3。

The current global average is 2.6,and in rich countries only 1.6.

而现在这个数字已下降至2.6，富裕国家妇女的人均生育率仅为1.6。

The UN predicts that by 2050 the global figure will have dropped to just two,so by mid-century the world's population will begin to level out.

联合国预计，到2050年，全球妇女的人均生育率将降至2。因此，到本世纪中叶，世界人口总数将开始呈现平稳状态。

The numbers in some developed countries have already started shrinking.

某些发达国家的人口数量已开始缩减。

Depending on your point of view,that may or may not be a good thing,but it will certainly turn the world into a different place.

不管您认为这一现象是好是坏，它必定会给这个世界带来巨大变化。

The temporary blip that has magnified the effects of lower fertility and greater longevity is the baby-boom that arrived in most rich countries after the Second World War.

暂时现象其实是指大多数富国在二战后迎来的婴儿潮，它进一步放大了低生育率和长寿对老龄化造成的影响。

The timing varied slightly from place to place,but in America-where the effect was strongest-it covered roughly the 20 years from 1945,a period when nearly 80 million Americans were born.

婴儿潮出现的时间因地点的不同而略有差别，但在美国，始于1945年的婴儿潮大约持续了20年。这一时期出生的人口数量接近8000万，对美国社会造成极大影响。

The first of them are now coming up to retirement.

出生在婴儿潮早期的人们现已接近退休年龄，

For the next 20 years those baby-boomers will be swelling the ranks of pensioners,which will lead to a rapid drop in the working population all over the rich world.

而在接下来的20年里，这一时期出生的人们将不断壮大领取养老金的队伍，这将导致所有富国同时面临劳动人口数量急剧下降的问题。