VOA常速英语2016--叙利亚步埃及突尼斯后尘 入阿拉伯之春危机（在线收听）

叙利亚步埃及突尼斯后尘 入阿拉伯之春危机

Amateur video distributed by the Associated Press appears to show Syrian protesters fleeingtear gas fired by security forces Friday after midday prayers. The protesters chant, "Thepeople want the fall of the regime," in the footage reportedly recorded in a mainly Kurdish townon the Turkish border. The AP could not confirm the authenticity of the video, but said itcame from a reliable source. That was just one of many protests Friday in various parts of thecountry reported by activists and Human Rights groups. Peter Bouckaert is the EmergenciesDirector for Human Rights Watch in Geneva. There was a very extensive deployment ofsecurity forces across the country, especially in Aleppo and in the capital, Damascus. Butdespite this heavy deployment, protesters have once again gone out all over the country in verylarge numbers. Bouckaert says protests were particularly large this week because of anger overdozens of deaths caused by security forces in recent days in the town of Homs. He says thefirst large-scale night protests were held late Thursday and into Friday morning. In addition,he reports that hundreds of thousands rallied in the central city of Hama, where security forceshave reportedly withdrawn. It really does appear that the capacity of the Syrian state tocontinue this very violent crackdown is stretched to the limit.And it's uncertain whether theywill be able to continue to use this extreme violence against what is still a mostly non-violentprotest movement. The regime is running out of options and running out of time. The HumanRights Watch official says his group and Syrian activists have documented the defection ofdozens of soldiers, who he says are not willing to fire on protesters. But at London's RoyalInstitute of International Affairs, Syria watcher Nadim Shehadi believes President Bashar al-Assad will continue his crackdown as long as he receives what Shehadi believes are mixedsignals from the West. Shehadi says President Assad believes the now-deposed leaders ofEgypt and Tunisia gave in to protesters too quickly during the start of the so-called Arab Springprotests, and he does not want to make the same mistake. Still, Shehadi says with the rightcombination of domestic and international pressure, the more than 40-year-long reign ofAssad and his father could be brought to an end. The regime will crumble much faster than wethink. The structure of it is much weaker than we think. And the aftermath of the crumbling ofthe regime is a mystery to everybody. Analysts say direct Western intervention in Syria isnot likely, and after months of protests and crackdowns, they say neither side in the Syrianconflict can see a way out through compromise. They say that probably means more weeks,maybe months, of violence.

美联社传播的一则视频中，做完周五祈祷的数名叙利亚抗议者似乎在躲避安保人员投射的催泪弹。在这段似在土耳其边境某主要库尔德城镇中拍摄的视频片段中，这些抗议者高喊着“人民要推翻政权”。美联社目前无法确认视频发布者的身份，但确认该视频来源可靠。

据多位活动分子及多家人权组织称，这起抗议只是周五当天全国各地诸多抗议活动中的一个。皮特是日内瓦人权监察组织的应急负责人。全国上下，尤其是阿勒波和首都大马士革都广泛部署了安保力量。但尽管部署严密，抗议者仍然大批量的在全国各地展开抗议活动。皮特表示，本周的抗议活动尤其严重，原因是近日，霍姆斯的安保力量造成数名市民死亡，引起巨大愤怒。他表示，第一批大规模的抗议发生在周四晚上，一直持续到周五早上。他表示，除此之外，还有成百上千名抗议人员聚集在哈马市，因为那里的安保力量已经撤离。似乎叙利亚镇压抗议形势已捉襟见肘。尚不确定叙利亚政府是否会对目前为止的非暴力抗议活动继续采取极端的暴力镇压手段。但叙利亚政府目前已经没有退路，没有时间了。人权监察组织工作人员称，其组织与叙利亚的活动分子已将违抗命令、不愿对抗议者发射催泪弹的士兵进行了记载。而伦敦皇家国际事务研究所的叙利亚观察员纳迪姆表示，只要叙利亚总统认为抗议有西方干预的因素，会继续进行镇压。纳迪姆称，叙利亚总统认为，在所谓阿拉伯之春的抗议中迅速败下阵来的埃及总统和突尼斯总统均遭到罢免，他不想步两者的后尘。纳迪姆还表示，在国际国内压力的双重作用下，叙利亚总统阿萨德及其父亲长达40多年的统治将不复存在。叙利亚政权崩塌的速度会比我们想象的快。因为其政权构架比我们想象的脆弱。但政权崩塌的余波现在尚难以断言。很多分析家认为，在进行了数个月之久的抗议和镇压后，西方势力已很难干预到叙利亚的风波中，但任何一方的退步也很难解决叙利亚当前的矛盾了。而这可能意味着，叙利亚还会有数个月的暴力事件持续。