科学美国人60秒 SSS Heat Will Hit America's Poorest Worst（在线收听）

Heat Will Hit America's Poorest Worst

退出巴黎协议？伤害的可是美国穷人…

In President Trump's June 1st speech withdrawing the U.S. from the Paris Climate Accord, he claimed the climate agreement was costing American workers. In a whole lot of ways: "In terms of lost jobs, lower wages, shuttered factories, and vastly diminished economic production."

6月1日特朗普总统宣布美国退出巴黎气候协定的演讲中，他声称该气候协议让美国工人付出了代价——在很多方面:“失业，工资下降，工厂关闭，经济产量大幅下降。”

\Of course, doing nothing about climate change is an option. But what is the economic price…of that choice? A team of economists and scientists set out to answer that question, by linking up economic and climate models to estimate how much warming temperatures could cost the U.S. economy.

当然，对气候变化无所作为是一种选择。但这种选择的经济价值……是什么?一个由经济学家和科学家组成的小组开始着手解决这个问题。他们通过将经济和气候模型联系起来，来估算气候变暖可能会对美国经济造成多大影响。

And they found that for every degree Celsius the temperature goes up? It docks the U.S. gross domestic product, the GDP, by 1.2 percent.

他们发现温度每升高1摄氏度，将使美国国内生产总值(GDP)下降1.2%。

But that economic penalty will not be evenly applied. Because the southern U.S. is already much poorer than the northern U.S. today. Oh, and it's hotter, too. "You know, if you're already a really hot location, heating up is really harmful." Solomon Hsiang, an economist at UC Berkeley. "Going from 70 to 75 isn't nearly as bad as going from 90 to 95."

但这种经济惩罚不会得到平均分配。因为目前美国南部已经比北部穷很多了。还有，（南部）也更热。“要知道，如果一个地区已经非常热了，那气温继续升高会是非常有害的。”索罗门(Solomon Hsiang)——加州大学伯克利分校的一位经济学家说道，“从70（华氏）度升到75度并不像从90度升到95度那样糟糕。”

Add in more hurricane damage, smaller crop yields, lost jobs, an increase in death and disease—and the analysis finds that climate change could eat up 20 percent of the poorest counties' income by the end of the century.

加上飓风破坏加剧，作物减产，失业，死亡和疾病的增加——分析发现，到本世纪末，气候变化将吞噬最贫穷郡县收入的20%

"Effectively we're harming the poorer populations and helping the wealthier northern populations. So this means climate change can actually increase inequality within the United States." The study is in the journal Science.

“实际上，我们正在伤害贫困人口，帮助富裕的北方人。这意味着气候变化实际上会加剧美国内部的不平等。”这项研究发表在《科学》杂志上。

Warming temperatures probably won't help President Trump reach his forecasted three percent growth rate for the U.S. economy, either. "You know, this is essentially going to slow down the growth rate gradually." In other words: it won't be a good climate for negotiation.

温度升高可能也并不能帮助特朗普总统实现对美国经济3%的预期增长率。“要知道，这实际上会逐渐减缓增长率。”换句话说，这不是个能协商的问题。