VOA常速英语2018--贸易、物流业或成贸易战首当其冲的牺牲品（在线收听）

The last few weeks have been extremely stressful for Liang Liang who owns an import wholesale business in Los Angeles. I’ve been watching the news every day. When will the tariff be put in place? When are my goods arriving? It’s a fight against time. I’m trying to order all my products for the rest of the year.

过去几周里，在洛杉矶经营进口批发业务的梁亮可谓是压力山大。我每天都关注新闻。关税什么时候开始实施？我的货什么时候到？这是一场与时间的赛跑。我试图把下半年的货都先给订了。

Most of his goods such as toys and T-shirts come from China, Liang’s home country. He expects a 10 to 20 percent increase in shipping costs, as prices rise. Because of the tariffs, some manufacturers and retailers may order fewer products, cutting the volume of trade and shipping between the two countries. Once that happens, you’re gonna see an increase in the rates for shipping because when you don’t have the volume to justify the goods going back and forth, you’re gonna see a further increase in that shipping cost. And shipping costs will affect all trade between the US and China, not just the goods on the list to be taxed. The trade and logistics sector which includes the ports in the supply chain of trucks and warehouses will be the first casualties of the trade war.

梁亮所需的大部分货源都来自家乡中国，比如玩具、T恤。他预计，随着物价的抬高，货运成本也会上升10%-20%。由于关税的加征，一些制造商和零售商可能会降低产品总量，从而导致中美两国间的贸易额以及货运量下滑。这时候，运费就会上涨，因为货运量不够大，运费成本不足以支撑数量不多的货物来来返返，所以运费就会上升。而运费成本会影响中美贸易情况，而不只是影响被加征关税的货物。由于贸易业和物流业都要涉及到卡车和仓库供应链中的港口，所以这两个行业将是贸易战首当其冲的牺牲品。

Liang says he’ll absorb the losses and his profit margins will shrink but… If the tariffs increased by another 10, 20 percent, we’ll have to raise our prices. So the consumers are going to feel it in the wallets very quickly. Businesses restructure their supply networks and adjust to the tariff environment. Duane Kenagy at the Port of Long Beach says so far the port has seen record container volumes this year, but there is concern.

梁亮表示自己将大量亏损，盈余的资金也将缩水，不过……如果关税再升10%-20%的话，我们就必须提价了。所以消费者会发现自己的钱包扁得很快。企业会对供应网络进行重组，以适应关税提升的环境。长滩港的杜安 凯纳吉(Duane Kenagy)表示，目前为止，该港口已经达到了吞吐量的史上最高值，但依然让人忧心忡忡。

The impacts of a sustained long-term trade war could be devastating to both economies. Liang Liang remains hopeful: he thinks the trade war is actually political theater for both the US and China. China also has its position on trade. The Chinese government also has to be accountable to the 1.4 billion people of China. So I think China and the US will disagree over trade on the surface. For Trump it’s a show for the November midterm elections so he can be accountable to the electorate. Experts say finding solutions to unfair trade practices and issues of American intellectual property are needed. But there also should be measures to minimize the damages of a trade war.

长期贸易战的影响对于两国经济来说都是毁灭性的。梁亮依然抱有希望：他认为，贸易战实际上是中美两国的政治博弈。中方在贸易方面有自己的立场。而且中国政府也要对14亿中国人民负责。所以，我觉得，中国和美国在贸易商的分歧是表象。对于特朗普来说，这对于11月的中期选举来说是一次展示，这样对选民们才有个交代。有专家认为，美国的知识产权被以不公正的方式在贸易中利用，有必要为这个问题寻找解决方案。但同时也有必要将贸易战的损失降到最低。