VOA常速英语2018--打贸易战 美国农民有阵痛（在线收听）

Among the mounting concerns, Illinois farmer Bob Gurkey is juggling. He is racing against the clock to harvest his corn and soybeans. Bob spends up to 14 hours a day in the fields. Biggest concern right now of harvesting that we don’t get stuck, and we get the crops out before Mother Nature throws snow at us. But his worries don’t end there. The marketers’ advice even this spring never was calling for soybeans to go down to this extreme, but they weren’t thinking there was going to be a tariff. Bob is talking about Chinese tariffs on US grain products, a retaliatory move after the United States slapped tariffs on Chinese steel and aluminum. It’s brought down soybean prices as much as two dollars this year. That’s a big deal for a farmer who’s counting on that yield and that farm income.

心怀担忧千千万，伊利诺伊州的农民鲍勃·古尔基正在疲于应对。他正在争分夺秒收割成熟的玉米和大豆。鲍勃一天有14个小时在地里忙活。现在最大的担忧是收割停滞不前的问题，我们要赶在下雪前完成收割。但他的担忧还不止于此。市场商人们直到今年春天也从未建议过把大豆的价格下降到如此极端的地步，但这是因为他们那时候没想到会有关税。鲍勃现在讨论的是中国对美国谷物产品征收的关税，这是对美国加征中国钢铁和铝制品关税后的报复性举措。该举措使得今年的大豆价格下降了2美元。2美元对于靠大豆产量和农场收益来营生的农民来说是大事儿了。

Tamara Nelson, Senior Director of Commodities for the Illinois Farm Bureau, is concerned. This is a fifth straight year of lower farm income, I think the second lowest farm incomes since 2012. Nelson says news of a pending trade agreement between the US, Mexico and Canada to replace NAFTA so far isn’t doing much to put farmers at ease. Whether or not that was achieved because of the tariff threats remains to be seen because the steel and aluminum tariffs still remain on Mexico and Canada, and their retaliatory tariffs threatened against us still remain.

塔玛拉·纳尔逊是伊利诺伊州农业局大宗商品的高级主管，她对此表示担忧。这是农民收入连续第5年下降，我认为这是2012年以来农民收入第二低的一年。纳尔逊表示，虽然有消息称美国、墨西哥、加拿大之间的贸易协定目前为止还没有敲定，但这并不能让农民安心。是否能因关税的威胁而达成贸易协定还有待观望，因为钢铁和铝制品方面的关税依然施加在墨西哥和加拿大身上，而这两个国家依然有可能对我们施加报复性关税。

Farmer Bob Gurkey had hoped decades of negotiations and relationships in China would be paying off, reversing declining farm income by keeping one of the largest markets for US soybeans open. And we built trade up to where it was working. And now within a matter of six months, a lot of that has been knocked down, maybe even devastated to where will it come back how long it’s going to take to come back. The US Department of Agriculture’s twelve billion dollar aid package was supposed to be a silver lining while it helps offset his lower soybean prices.

鲍勃·古尔基作为一名农民，他希望过去几十年来跟中国的谈判和关系改善能够展现成果，能够扭转农民越发干瘪的腰包，只需要保持美国最大的市场之一——大豆市场开放就好。我们打造的贸易关系一直都行之有效。而现在，在6个月的时间里，这些成果受到了损害，付诸东流。而恢复如初的代价是巨大的。美国农业部有120美元的援助项目，这个援助项目是一线希望，可以缓解大豆价格降低的影响。

They’re saying that we would get, I believe it’s a dollar sixty a dollar sixty five a bushel. Gurkey says it doesn’t help this corn, it’s a penny. Well, why even bother if you’re gonna give us a penny, that’s more a paperwork than it’s worth. And then then they’re a package what they present two hundred million is for market development. It’s like we had the market. Nice, that’s that sort of a joke. Soybeans are still being sold around the world even if they might not be going to China. Sales to Europe and Argentina are up this year, so the question remains are the trade tactics adopted by President Trump and his administration ultimately working.

他们说我们的农作物会得到收购，我觉得大概是每蒲式耳1.6或1.65美元收购价。古尔基说，这并不能帮到玉米的收成，杯水车薪吧。如果只有这么低的价格，就不用麻烦了，表面功夫做这么足有什么用。然后他们提供2亿美元的援助计划，用于市场开发。就好像我们有市场一样。这玩笑开得不错。大豆在全球各地都有需求，就算不卖给中国也是一样。今年，欧洲和阿根廷的销量上来了，所以问题在于特朗普总统及其政府采取的贸易策略最终是否会生效。

That’s probably the sixty four thousand dollars question. I think if you ask most farmers right now, they’ll say no; you ask them maybe a year from now, six months from now, it might change their mind. Six months from now, Gurkey himself will be in a very different mindset, shifting gears from harvesting his crops to planting seeds in the ground for a new growing season, a season he hopes is filled with more certainty.

这很有可能是6.4万美元的问题。我觉得，如果现在去问大多数农民，他们会说不；但或许一年或者半年之后再问，他们会改变心意。半年后，古尔基自己的心境也会十分不同：从丰收到播种以待来时——他希望是更有把握的“来时”。