经济学人:六大经济学原理:失业的自然比率(2)（在线收听） |
If people cannot find jobs because they have outdated skills—think hand weavers after the invention of the loom—they might become “structurally” unemployed. 如果人们是因为具有过时的技能而不能找到工作——想想织布机发明之后的手工织布工——他们可能变得“结构性地”失业(structurally unemployed). But it is the trade-off between unemployment and inflation that most preoccupies central bankers. 但是，最让央行银行家劳心费神的是失业和通胀之间的那种取舍。
John Maynard Keynes, the great British economist, took a first step towards the natural-rate hypothesis when he focused minds on “involuntary” unemployment. 伟大的英国经济学家凯恩斯在关注“非自愿性”失业(involuntary unemployment)时，迈出了通往自然比率假设的第一步。
In his book “The General Theory”, published in 1936 in the aftermath of the Depression, 在他的那本在大萧条之后的1936年出版的《通论》一书中，
Keynes noted that many people could not find jobs at the going wage, even if they had comparable skills to those in work. 凯恩斯指出，许多人哪怕是拥有与在职之人不相上下的技能，也不可能以现有的工资找到工作。
Classical economics blamed artificially high wages, perhaps caused by trade unions. 古典经济学将其归咎于人为的高工资，这种高工资可能是由工会造成的。
But Keynes pointed to lacklustre economy-wide spending. 但是，凯恩斯直指死气沉沉的整个经济体的开支。
Even if wages fell, he reasoned, workers would have less to spend, making the demand deficiency worse. 他分析道，尽管工资降了，但是，工人可以花钱的地方也会减少，令需求不足更加严重。
The answer, he thought, was for governments to manage aggregate demand in order to keep employment “full”. 他认为，对政府来说，答案是管理总需求，以保持就业是“完全的”(full)。
Keynes was not the father of all that is now thought of as “Keynesian”. 凯恩斯不是现在被认为是“凯恩斯学派”的全部内容之父。
Inflation, for instance, barely entered his analysis of unemployment. 例如，通胀几乎没有进入他的失业分析。
But by the late 1960s Keynesianism had become associated with the idea that when managing aggregate demand, policymakers are not just choosing a rate of unemployment. 但是，到上世纪60年代，凯恩斯主义已经与决策者在管理总需求时不单单是在选择一种失业率的思想变得密不可分了。
They are simultaneously choosing how fast prices rise. 他们同时还在选择物价涨得有多快。 |
| 原文地址：http://www.tingroom.com/lesson/jjxrfyb/cj/457339.html |