VOA常速英语2018--俄罗斯经济或于2019年遭遇危机（在线收听）

From the bright and joyful displays on Red Square, it’s hard to tell that anyone is worried about possible economic troubles ahead. It’s clear in Moscow’s retail districts that some people are doing well. I don’t plan to economize. This is a planned holiday for which the budget has already been allocated without any real economy.

从红场上明亮又喜庆的陈列中，很难看出大家对可能即将盗来的经济问题担忧。显然，莫斯科的一些零售区里，有些人过得很好。我不打算缩衣节食。这是已经计划好了的节日，预算也已经安排上了，不需要考虑实体经济的问题。

But in shopping for the biggest feasts of the year, not all are spending with abandon. Some, especially among Russia’s estimated 40 million pensioners, are worried about having enough money in the New Year. I see that the situation among the ordinary people is not getting better. I wish someone would think more about the pensioner. Those concerns are not unfounded in an economy that analysts describe as contradictory.

但是在参与今年最大规模的购物盛宴时，也有人会有所节制。一些人，尤其是俄罗斯大概4000万名领退休金的老人，会担心新年钱不够用。我注意到普通人的生活境况并没有改善。我希望有人能为领退休金的老人着想。这些担心不是没有根据的，毕竟很多分析师都认为俄罗斯经济有矛盾之处。

Despite the fact that we have economic growth, we have had four years’ slump in real incomes. Here is one more Russian paradox: High salaries, drawing salaries and decreasing real incomes. This is all because of quite big shadow sector but black economy, without an official taxation. Analysts predict an overall drop in spending this holiday season due to international sanctions and government policies that include higher taxes and rising interest rates. The direction of the economy in 2019 will be crucial for President Vladimir Putin, whose supporters mostly live away from the glitz of the capital. For Russians, this is a chance to eat, drink and prepare for whatever the New Year brings.

虽然经济有所增长，但实际收入已经是下滑4年了。除此之外，还有一个矛盾现象——工资上涨之后，就取出来花，而实际收入是下降了的。这些都是因为存在着相当大的灰色收入，也就是非法经济，没有官方征税。有分析师预测认为，本节日季将会出现支出整体缩水的情况，原因是诸多国际制裁和政府政策都抬高了税收和利率。2019年的经济走向对于普京总统来说十分严峻，因为普京的支持者大多不在首都。对于俄罗斯人来说，这是一个畅快吃喝的时节，一个为新年做准备的时节。