Helping Fragile Democracies: Why monitors matter 脆弱的民主制度下的选举：为什么监管更重要

Foreign observers and local citizen-watchers can make the difference between a fair election and a disaster. 外国和当地公民观察员们能够对竞选公平与否产生很大影响。

No one batted an eyelid earlier this year when Turkmenistan's strongman, Gurbanguly Berdimuhamedov, was “re-elected” with nearly 98% of the vote. 今年早些时候，当土库曼斯坦铁腕人物Gurbanguly Berdimuhamedov以近乎98%的支持率重新当选的时候，没人对此产生异议。

Why, one wonders, did he bother with an election at all? 有人就好奇，既然已经知道是这样的结果，Berdimuhamedov为什么还要进行重新选举？

Yet in a growing number of fragile new democracies, especially in Africa, where similarly absurd results were once common, elections have become genuine. 在民主进程缓慢进行的国家，尤其是非洲国家，这样压倒性的选举优势曾经常出现，但是现在，民主选举确实是在进步了。

Since 1991 incumbent governments or leaders have been ousted at the ballot box at least 45 times, most recently in Nigeria, Ghana, the Gambia and Lesotho. 从1991年以来，在尼日尼亚、加纳、冈比亚、莱索托等国家，当权政府和领导人已经被从选举箱中除名至少45次。

Nerves still jangle at election time, especially when the outcome is likely to be close,  但是在选举期间，人们还是会担心，尤其是选举结果即将出炉的时候。

patronage and corruption are pervasive, and rigging and violence have blighted previous ballots. 在这期间，到处都是赞助和腐败，徇私舞弊和暴力也会影响先前的投票结果。

A fraudulent election can tarnish a country's reputation, threaten its stability, and deter investment and aid. 一次掺有欺诈的选举会破坏一个国家的声誉、危害它的安全、阻挡外国投资和援助。

Kenya, whose voters go to the polls on August 8th, is just such a case. 8月8日，即将进行选举的肯尼亚就是个例子。

Violence after an election in 2007 left at least 1,300 dead and 700,000 displaced. 2007年选举之后的暴乱，导致1300民众死亡，70万人流离失所。

The country is the economic and strategic hub of east Africa, so a credible election this time matters not only to Kenyans but to many beyond their borders. 作为非洲东部的经济和战略中心，肯尼亚选举的影响波及很多国家。

Foreign and local observers will be vital to ensuring a clean contest in such a “transitional democracy”. 肯尼亚国内外观察员在保证透明选举这件事上，起着至关重要的作用。

In the bad old days no one (except the hapless citizens of the countries concerned) seemed to care much if elections were rigged, provided they were more or less peaceful. 在过去，只要选举能够和平进行，就没有人（除了那些关心国家的“倒霉蛋”们）在乎它是否公平公正的。

International monitors would swan in a few days before the poll and—more negligently—fly out again a day or two after it,  国际监管员们在选举之前只会到处瞎晃，他们还会粗心地在选举之后的几天后就飞离，

often declaring the election to have been “free and fair” because they had seen voters cast their ballots without violence. 然后说此次选举非常的“公平公正”，因为他们看到选民们是在没有爆发冲突的时候投的票。

No matter that fraud and bad blood often increase after polling day. 之后就再也不管选举之后留下的烂摊子。