2019年经济学人 单独行事 (1)（在线收听）

"Seeing possibilities in potatoes" is the upbeat slogan of Lamb Weston Potato Products, Inc., an American exporter.

“在土豆中看见无限可能”，这是美国出口商蓝威斯顿薯业公司的一条乐观的标语。

But new trade deals mean that its foreign competitors have fewer obstacles blocking their view.

但新的贸易协定意味着遮挡其外国竞争对手视线的障碍越来越少了。

One is the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP), which came into effect on December 30th.

其中一份是于12月30日生效的全面与进步跨太平洋伙伴关系协定（CPTPP）。

Negotiated as the TPP between 12 countries and agreed between 11, after President Donald Trump pulled America out,

TPP由12个国家协商而成，唐纳德·特朗普总统让美国推出TPP后，11国达成CPTPP协议，

the deal will phase out tariffs on frozen potato chips and mashed potato, benefiting Lamb Weston's Canadian rivals.

该协议将逐步取消针对速冻马铃薯条以及土豆泥的关税，蓝威斯顿的竞争对手因而受益。

And another trade deal, between the European Union and Japan, to be implemented on February 1st, will do the same for its European ones.

另一项欧盟和日本之间的协议将于2月1日实施，其内容和欧洲协议一致。

The coming year is shaping up to be one of preferential trade deals, where two or a group of countries agree on their own trading rules.

明年将成为特惠贸易协议的一年，两国或多国将对本国交易规则达成协议。

As well as CPTPP and the EU-Japan deal, America is aiming to strike several: with Japan, the EU and China.

和CPTPP以及欧日协议一样，美国计划和日本、欧盟以及中国达成几项协议。

Will they act as stepping stones towards broad trade liberalisation—or, on the contrary, distort trade and divide the world into competing trade regions?

这些协议会成为广泛贸易自由化的垫脚石么—还是，正好相反，破坏贸易并将世界分割为相互抵触的贸易区域？

And what will be the impact on the multilateral system overseen by the World Trade Organisation (WTO)?

并且这将对受国际贸易组织（WTO）监管的多边贸易体制造成怎样的影响呢？

Economists have long argued about the impact of preferential trade deals.

经济学家一直以来都对特惠贸易协议的影响争论不休。

For purists, it would be best if all trade took place under the WTO's "most-favoured nation" (MFN) principle,

对纯粹主义者而言，如果所有贸易都在WTO的“最惠国”（MFN）原则下进行是最好的，

which means that a tariff cut offered to one member must be offered to all, thus putting all exporters on an equal footing.

这意味着提供给一位成员国的关税削减将必须提供给所有成员国，因此，所有出口方都是平等的。

Others—self-described pragmatists—fear that reliance on the MFN principle would cause gridlock.

其他人—自称为实用主义者—担心对MFN原则的依赖会导致僵局。

If some countries are happy with the status quo, others might be reluctant to cut tariffs for fear of granting rivals a free ride.

如果一些国家对现状满意，其他国家可能会因为担心竞争对手会坐享其成而不愿降低关税。

China, for example, could refuse to reform while benefiting from lower American and European duties.

例如，中国享受着美国和欧洲的更低关税却拒绝改革。

Better, the pragmatists think, to strike smaller deals between like-minded members. That could spur laggards onwards:

实用主义者认为，最好是在那些志同道合的成员国中达成小范围的协议。这样会刺激落后者前进：

Brent Baglien, Lamb Weston's vice-president of government affairs, urged the United States Trade Representative (USTR),

蓝威斯顿政务副总裁布伦特·巴格林敦促美国最高贸易办公室美国贸易代表署（USTR）

America's top trade official, to seek a deal with Japan that would eliminate its 8.5% tariff on American imported potatoes.

和日本达成协议，对美国进口的土豆减税8.5%。

"Once the US loses an export customer, it is extremely hard, if not impossible, to get it back," he warned.

“美国一旦失去一位出口客户，就难以（如果有可能的话）再挽回他，”他警告称。