2019年经济学人 全球化放缓(2)（在线收听）

Globalisation has slowed from light speed to a snail’s pace in the past decade for several reasons. The cost of moving goods has stopped falling. Multinational firms have found that global sprawl burns money and that local rivals often eat them alive. Activity is shifting towards services, which are harder to sell across borders: scissors can be exported in 20ft-containers, hair stylists cannot. And Chinese manufacturing has become more self-reliant, so needs to import fewer parts.

过去十年，全球化从光速放缓至蜗牛速，几个原因如下。运输货物的成本已停止下降。跨国公司发现，全球扩张烧钱，而当地竞争对手常常将其生吞。商业活动正转向服务领域，这些领域更难跨国销售：剪刀可以装到20英尺集装箱出口，但发型师不能。且中国制造业已经变得更加自力更生，因此零部件进口需求更低。

This is the fragile backdrop to Mr Trump’s trade war. Tariffs tend to get the most attention. If America ratchets up duties on China in March, as it has threatened, the average tariff rate on all American imports will rise to 3.4%, its highest for 40 years. (Most firms plan to pass the cost on to customers.) Less glaring, but just as pernicious, is that rules of commerce are being rewritten around the world. The principle that investors and firms should be treated equally regardless of their nationality is being ditched.

这就是特朗普贸易战的脆弱背景。最受关注的是关税。若美国实践其威胁论，在3月份提高对中国的关税，那么所有美国进口商品的平均关税将上升到3.4%，为40年来的最高水平。（大多数公司计划让消费者承担成本。）世界各地正在重写商业规则，虽然由此引起的负面影响没那么大，但还是要引起警觉。原先的原则“无论哪个国家的投资者和公司都应得到平等对待”正在被丢弃。

Evidence for this is everywhere. Geopolitical rivalry is gripping the tech industry, which accounts for about 20% of world stockmarkets. Rules on privacy, data and espionage are splintering. Tax systems are being bent to patriotic ends—in America to prod firms to repatriate capital, in Europe to target Silicon Valley. America and the EU have new regimes for vetting foreign investment. America has weaponised the power it gets from running the world’s dollar-payments system, to punish foreigners such as Huawei. Even humdrum areas such as accounting and antitrust are fragmenting.

而证据信手拈来。地缘政治的竞争正困扰着占世界股市20%的科技行业。有关隐私、数据和间谍活动的规定正分崩离析。税收系统正出于爱国主义妥协——美国促使企业将资本汇回国内，欧洲则以硅谷为目标。美国和欧盟对于境外投资有一套新的审核制度，目标是为惩罚诸如华为这样的外企。就连会计和反垄断等不起眼的领域也在分崩离析。