2019年经济学人欧元从繁荣到衰退 (1)（打印版）

Even as the European Central Bank (ECB) halts stimulus, it looks as if the economy needs revving up again.

欧洲中央银行（ECB）停止刺激，经济似乎仍需要再次加速发展。

In December the bank said it would stop expanding its 2.6trn euro ($3trn) bond-buying scheme.

12月，该行表示将停止其26000亿欧元（3万亿美元）的债券购买计划。

But on the same day it trimmed its forecasts of economic growth and warned that "the balance of risks is moving to the downside".

但在同一天，该行降低了其对经济增长的预测并警告称“风险平衡有下降趋势”。

Its warnings have now materialised. Several measures of economic activity in the euro zone have disappointed in recent weeks.

其警示现已成真。近周，欧元区的几项经济活动措施表现令人失望。

The much-touted "euroboom" that began in 2017 has run its course.

2017年开始的且备受吹捧的“欧元繁荣”按部就班。

The slowdown was first thought to be temporary.

起初认为经济放缓是暂时性的。

At the start of 2018 sluggish growth in Germany, the bloc's largest economy,

2018年年初，欧元区最大经济体德国的经济增长滞缓

was blamed on one-off factors ranging from an outbreak of flu to labour disputes and the timing of national holidays.

被归咎于流感爆发、劳资纠纷和国家法定假日时间安排等一次性因素。

Weak third-quarter data was chalked up to bottlenecks in the car industry, which had to meet new emissions standards for diesel engines.

第三季度数据的疲软被归咎于汽车行业中的瓶颈，汽车行业必须符合柴油机的排放新标准。

In the fourth quarter the populist gilets jaunes protests in France dealt growth another temporary blow.

在第四季度，法国平民主义黄马甲抗议运动给经济增长又一暂时性的打击。

The demonstrations are expected to have lowered output in the euro zone's second-largest economy by 0.1%.

预计此次游行示威会将欧元区第二大经济体的产出降低0.1%。

But recent figures suggest the economic slowdown is broad-based.

但是近期数据表明经济放缓是没有界限的。

"There is more going on than the one-offs that have continually plagued the euro-zone economy," says Bert Colijn, an economist at ING, a bank.

ING银行的一名经济学家伯特·科林表示“事实远不止是那些不断困扰欧元区经济的一次性因素”。

"It's not country- or sector-specific anymore. The weakness is widespread," says Felix Huefner of UBS, another bank.

另一家银行UBS的菲力克斯·霍夫纳表示，“这不再是针对某个国家或产业了。疲软波及广泛。”

On January 4th IHS Markit, a data provider, said that in December its euro-zone purchasing managers' index (PMI)

1月4日，数据提供商IHS Markit表示，在12月，本公司的欧元区采购经理人指数（PMI）

—a closely watched gauge of economic activity—fell to a four-year low.

—测量经济活动的一项密切观测标准—降至四年最低点。

PMIS declined in the zone's four largest economies, Germany, France, Italy and Spain.

欧元区四大经济体（德国、法国、意大利和西班牙）的PMIS下降。

Figures released on January 14th revealed that euro-zone industrial production fell by 3.3% year-on-year in November.

1月14日发布的数据显示，11月欧元区行业产量同比下降3.3%。

That is its largest annual decline in six years.

这是6年来最大一次年度下滑。