2019年经济学人欧元从繁荣到衰退 (2)（打印版）

欧元从繁荣到衰退 (2)

Early signs suggest GDP too will disappoint. On January 15th Germany's statistics office released figures suggesting that

早期迹象显示GDP也将令人失望。1月15日，德国统计处发布的数据表明

the economy only narrowly avoided a recession last year: after contracting by 0.2% in the third quarter, it barely grew in the fourth.

去年该国勉强躲过一场经济衰退：第三季度收缩0.2%后，第四季度略有增长。

Italy seems likely to have gone into recession in the second half of 2018.

意大利可能在2018年下半年卷入经济衰退之中。

While many have pointed to weak external demand as the primary cause of recent growth woes, domestic demand has also fallen short.

虽然很多人将矛头指向疲软的外部需求，认为这是近期经济增长问题的主因，但国内需求也未能达标。

Andrew Kenningham of Capital Economics notes that consumption growth slowed significantly in 2018 even as unemployment fell,

凯投宏观的安德鲁·肯宁厄姆指出当失业率下降时，2018年的消费增长明显放缓，

a worrying sign that "consumers have lost their nerve". Consumer confidence fell over the course of last year.

这是一条令人担忧的迹象：“消费者已经失去了理智。”在过去的一年里，消费者信心下滑。

And there are lurking risks. Mr Colijn reckons the biggest threats to growth in 2019 include a slowdown in China,

并且还存在潜伏风险。科林认为2019年经济增长最大的威胁包括中国经济放缓、

a disorderly no-deal Brexit, and an escalating trade war with America. Trade is slowing.

混乱的无协议脱欧以及与美国贸易战争的加剧。贸易在减速。

The World Bank recently lowered its expectations of growth in global trade volumes for this year and the next by around half a per cent.

世界银行将对今年和明年全球交易的增长预期降低了约0.5%。

For now, a full-blown recession across the currency area this year seems unlikely.

今年货币区似乎暂时不会出现全面衰退。

Economists expect the euro-zone economy to expand by 1.5% in 2019.

经济学家们预计2019年，欧元区经济会出现1.5%的涨幅。

But if such growth fails to materialise, the ECB will need to consider what tools to use to stimulate it.

但如果这种增长没能实现，那么ECB将需要考虑使用什么工具来刺激增长。

It could extend its forward guidance—for the moment it expects to keep interest rates at current levels "at least through the summer".

ECB可以延长前瞻指导期限—目前ECB希望能够将利率维持在目前水平，且“至少要撑过这个夏天”。

Another option would be to extend its targeted longer-term refinancing operations,

另一种选择是延长其定向长期再融资操作，

which offer cheap funds to banks that lend to firms and households.

给银行提供廉价资金，让这些银行给公司和家庭贷款。

As for the bond-buying programme, Mario Draghi, the ECB's president,

至于债券购买项目，ECB行长马里奥·德拉吉

acknowledged in December that at points it was "the only driver" of recovery in some parts of the euro zone.

在12月承认，在欧元区的某些国家中，这是经济复苏的“唯一驱动力”。

Disappointing data suggest the central bank might not hold the brakes down for long.

令人失望的数据表明央行可能不会一直踩着刹车。