2019年经济学人 印度vs巴基斯坦:莫迪的危险时刻(1)（在线收听）

Leaders

《社论》

Modi’s dangerous moment

莫迪的危险时刻

Two nuclear powers are shooting at each other. They are playing with fire

两个核大国正在互相攻击。正在玩火

The armies of India and Pakistan often exchange fire across the front line in the disputed state of Kashmir. When tensions rise, one side will subject the other to a blistering artillery barrage. On occasion, the two have sent soldiers on forays into one another’s territory. But since the feuding neighbours tested nuclear weapons in the late 1990s, neither had dared send fighter jets across the frontier—until this week. After a terrorist group based in Pakistan launched an attack in the Indian-controlled part of Kashmir that killed 40 soldiers, India responded by bombing what it said was a terrorist training camp in the Pakistani state of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. Pakistan retaliated by sending jets of its own to bomb Indian targets. In the ensuing air battle, both sides claim to have shot down the other’s aircraft, and Pakistan captured an Indian pilot.

印度和巴基斯坦军队经常在有争议的克什米尔前线交火。紧张局势升级时，一方会对另一方进行猛烈的炮火攻击。有时，两国还派士兵进入对方的领土。但自上世纪90年代末这两个长期不和的邻国进行核武器试验以来，双方都不敢派遣战斗机飞越边境，而本周这个局面被打破。一个以巴基斯坦为基地的恐怖组织在印度控制的克什米尔地区发动袭击，造成40名士兵死亡，此后，作为回应，印度轰炸了巴基斯坦开伯尔-普赫图赫瓦州的一个恐怖分子训练营。在随后的空战中，双方都声称击落了对方的飞机，巴基斯坦抓获了一名印度飞行员。

A miscalculation now could spell calamity. The fighting is already the fiercest between the two countries since India battled to expel Pakistani intruders from high in the Himalayas in 1999. The initial Indian air raid struck not Pakistan’s bit of Kashmir, but well within Pakistan proper and just 100km from the capital, Islamabad. That, in effect, constituted a change in the rules of engagement between the two. India and Pakistan are so often at odds that there is a tendency to shrug off their spats, but not since their most recent, full-blown war in 1971 has the risk of escalation been so high.

现在的误判可能导致灾难。自1999年印度从喜马拉雅山高处驱逐巴基斯坦入侵者以来，两国之间的斗争已经达到最激烈的程度。印度最初的空袭并非针对巴基斯坦的克什米尔地区，而是在巴基斯坦境内，距离首都伊斯兰堡仅100公里。这实际上改变了双方的交战规则。印度和巴基斯坦经常发生争执，人们往往此往往不以为意，但自1971年爆发最近一场全面战争以来，局势升级的风险从未如此之高。

The intention of Narendra Modi, India’s prime minister, in ordering the original air strike was simple. Pakistan has long backed terrorists who mount grisly attacks in India, most notably in Mumbai in 2008, when jihadists who arrived by boat from Pakistan killed some 165 people. Although Pakistan’s army promised then to shut down such extremist groups, it has not. By responding more forcefully than usual to the latest outrage, Mr Modi understandably wanted to signal that he was not willing to allow Pakistan to keep sponsoring terrorism.

印度总理纳伦德拉?莫迪最初下令发动空袭的意图很简单。长期以来，巴基斯坦一直支持在印度发动恐怖袭击的恐怖分子，尤其是2008年圣战分子乘船从巴基斯坦抵达，在孟买制造恐怖袭击，造成165人死亡。巴基斯坦军方尽管当时承诺要关闭这些极端组织，但并没有这么做。莫迪对最近的暴行做出了比以往更有力的回应，这可以理解，他想要表明，他不愿意让巴基斯坦继续支持恐怖主义。