2019年经济学人 印度vs巴基斯坦:莫迪的危险时刻(3)（在线收听）

By the same token, Mr Modi has not sparked the outright communal conflagration his critics, The Economist included, fretted about before he became prime minister. But his government has often displayed hostility to India’s Muslim minority and sympathy for those who see Hinduism—the religion of 80% of Indians—as under threat from internal and external foes. He has appointed a bigoted Hindu prelate, Yogi Adityanath, as chief minister of India’s most populous state, Uttar Pradesh. A member of his cabinet presented garlands of flowers to a group of Hindu men who had been convicted of lynching a Muslim for selling beef (cows are sacred to Hindus). And Mr Modi himself has suspended the elected government of Jammu & Kashmir, India’s only Muslim-majority state, and used force to suppress protests there against the central government, leading to horrific civilian casualties.

同样地，莫迪并没有像他的批评者(包括《经济学人》在内)在他成为总理之前担心的那样，引发全面族群冲突。但他的政府经常对印度的穆斯林少数民族表现出敌意，同情那些认为印度教——80%印度人的宗教——受到来自内部和外部敌人威胁的人。他任命固执的印度教教士约吉·阿迪亚纳斯为印度人口最多的北方邦的首席部长。他的一名内阁成员向一群印度教男子赠送了花环，这些人因以私刑绞死一名出售牛肉的穆斯林出售牛肉而被判处有罪（对印度教徒来说，牛是神圣的）。莫迪本人也暂停了查谟克什米尔（查谟克什米尔是印度唯一一个穆斯林占多数的邦）民选政府的任职，并使用武力镇压反对中央政府的抗议活动，导致了骇人的平民伤亡。

As reprehensible as all this is, the Hindu zealots who staff Mr Modi’s electoral machine complain that he has not done enough to advance the Hindu cause. And public dissatisfaction with his economic reforms has helped boost Congress, the main opposition party, making the election more competitive than had been expected. The temptation to fire up voters using heated brinkmanship with Pakistan will be huge.

尽管这一切都应受到谴责，但莫迪竞选团队中的印度教狂热分子抱怨称，莫迪在推动印度教事业方面做得不够。公众对他的经济改革的不满也帮助提振了主要反对党国大党，使选举比预期的更具竞争力。利用与巴基斯坦的激烈边缘政策来煽动选民的诱惑将是巨大的。

Mr Modi has made a career of playing with fire. He first rose to prominence as chief minister of Gujarat when the state was racked by anti-Muslim pogroms in 2002. Although there is no evidence he orchestrated the violence, he has shown no compunction about capitalising on the popularity it won him in Hindu-nationalist circles. With a difficult election ahead, he may think he can pull off the same trick again by playing the tough guy with Pakistan, but without actually getting into a fight. However, the price of miscalculation does not bear thinking about. Western governments are pushing for a diplomatic settlement at the UN. If Mr Modi really is a patriot, he will now step back.

莫迪的职业生涯都在玩火。2002年，古吉拉特邦遭受反穆斯林大屠杀，他以古吉拉特邦首席部长的身首次份声名大振。虽然没有证据表明他策划了这次暴力，但他对利用这次暴力在印度教民族主义者圈子里赢得的声望丝毫不感到内疚。在即将到来的艰难选举中，他可能认为他可以通过对巴基斯坦采取强硬态度，再次上演同样的把戏。然而，误判的代价没有给思考留余地。西方政府正推动在联合国达成外交解决方案。莫迪如果真的是一位爱国者，那么现在就会退让。