2019年经济学人 埃航失事:波音信誉遭到危机(2)（在线收听）

This week’s crash foreshadows the end of that golden age. Another MAX 8 crashed in October in Indonesia in similar circumstances. Although investigators have yet to determine the cause of the Ethiopian Airlines accident, regulators suspect that the max 8 has a design flaw.

本周的坠机事件预示着黄金时代的终结。2018年10月，MAX 8在印度尼西亚也发生了类似事故。尽管调查人员尚未确定埃塞俄比亚航空公司事故的原因，但监管机构怀疑MAX 8存在设计缺陷。

This plays into the worry that a new technological phase is under way. Aircraft are becoming autonomous, as computers take charge. This promises safer, more efficient flying, but the interaction between human pilots and machines is still unpredictable and experimental. In the Indonesian crash the pilots fought a losing battle against anti-stalling software that forced the plane’s nose down at least 20 times.

这加剧了人们对新技术阶段本来就有的担忧。随着计算机的应用，飞机变得越来越智能。这意味着飞行将更安全、更高效，但人类飞行员与机器之间的互动仍是不可预测的，而且还处于实验阶段。在印尼坠机事件中，防失速系统迫使飞机机头向下至少20次，飞行员最终没能战胜防失速系统。

The industry’s technical complexity is amplified by its organisational complexity. In the 1990s a few Western airlines dominated and a handful of regulators had global clout. Now there are hundreds of airlines and 290,000 pilots worldwide. In 2018, for the first time, less than half of the global fleet was based in the West. Maintaining common standards on training and procedures is harder. China and other countries want a bigger say. The credibility of American regulators has slipped because they have let domestic competition decline. This suggests they are cosy with industry.

飞机业的组织复杂性增强了技术复杂性。上世纪90年代，少数西方航空公司占据主导地位，少数监管机构拥有全球影响力。现在全球有数百家航空公司和29万名飞行员。2018年，全球航空队伍首次只有不到半数驻扎在西方。维持培训和程序方面的共同标准更加困难。中国和其他国家想要更多发言权。美国监管机构的信誉已经下滑，因为他们放任国内竞争下降。这表明他们对飞机业很放松。