2019年经济学人 敦促合并(1)（在线收听）

So much for the sepulchral calm of a German Sunday.

德国周天阴森的平静就到此为止了。

On March 17th, after months of prodding from the German government and chatter in the financial press,

3月17日，在德国政府的督促以及金融媒体的喋喋不休下，

Commerzbank and Deutsche Bank, Germany's two largest listed lenders, said that they would begin exploring a merger.

德国商业银行和德意志银行，德国最大的两家上市贷方表示他们将开始寻求合并。

A deal, both banks are at pains to add, is far from certain. If it happens, it would create Europe's third-biggest bank by assets,

这两家银行费尽心思添加的一项交易还远不能确定下来。如果合并，这将成为欧洲资产规模第三大的银行，

behind Britain's HSBC (which does most of its business in Asia) and France's BNP Paribas.

仅此于英国的汇丰银行（其主要业务在亚洲）以及法国的法国巴黎银行。

It would also join together two chronic underperformers. Last year Deutsche's return on equity, a puny 0.4%, was its first positive figure for four years.

这也将是两家习惯性表现欠佳者的结合。去年，德意志银行的净资产收益率（仅为0.4%）是四年来首个正数。

Commerzbank's has bettered last year's anaemic 3% only once since 2011.

自2011年来，德国商业银行的净资产收益率高于去年的3%，但也只有这一次。

Combining two struggling banks looks like an improbable method of creating the robust "national champion" of which German ministers have been dreaming.

将两家苦苦挣扎的公司合并就像是一种不可行方法，用于创造德国部长们一直梦寐以求的强健“全国冠军”。

Years of ultra-low interest rates and an overcrowded banking market—

多年的超低利率和过于拥挤的银行市场—

most of which is served by public-sector and co-operative lenders—have sapped profitability,

大部分由国营部门和合作贷方提供服务—已经削弱了盈利能力，

even though both Commerzbank and Deutsche Bank are well capitalised and amply liquid. A merger is unlikely to change that.

虽然德国商业银行和德意志银行资本雄厚且资金流动充足。一次合并不可能改变。

Encouragement from Berlin alone is not—or should not be—reason to merge,

仅仅是来来自政府的鼓励不是—或是不应该是—合并的理由，

although the government is Commerzbank's biggest shareholder, with 15%.

虽然政府是德国商业银行最大的股东，持股15%。

The right gauge is what all the shareholders of both banks would stand to lose or gain.

正确的测量标准是两家银行的股东将得到或失去什么。

You might suppose that Deutsche's should be keen on a fresh start. Its fall from grace since the financial crisis is a cautionary tale often told:

你可能认为德意志银行应该渴望一个新的开始。它自金融危机以来的失宠成了老生常谈的警世故事：

its share price has fallen by 90% since 2007; not until 2015 did it accept that its global moneymaking machine, aka its investment bank, was kaputt;

自2007年起其股价下跌90%；直到2015年它才接受了其全球赚钱机器，也称投资银行，崩溃的事实；

it is on its fourth chief executive in as many years; and so on.

它在四年里换了三个总裁等等。

But its smaller neighbour may have the better (or rather, less bad) end of the bargain.

但其较小的邻居或许能在该交易中获得更好的（更精确地说是没那么糟糕的）结果。

To both banks, a merger brings the promise of scale, especially in retail banking.

对两家银行来说，一次合并带来了规模的承诺，尤其是在小额银行业务方面。

Deutsche's share of the German market— adding its upmarket "blue" Deutsche Bank brand to the more basic Postbank—is around 11%,

德意志银行占德国市场份额—将其高端‘蓝色’德意志银行品牌添加到更基础的邮政银行—约为11%，

according to Autonomous Research; Commerzbank's is 8%.

独立调查机构 Autonomous Research表示，德国商业银行为8%。

With one-fifth of the market, a combined entity would be by far the biggest in Germany, maybe enough to exert some pricing power.

有了五分之一的市场份额，到目前为止一个合并实体将成为德国最大的实体，或许大到足以运用一些定价权。