2019年经济学人 伦敦金融城能否挺过英国退欧(3)（在线收听）

The first is by ripping up the legal framework, as the EU cancels the “passports” that let City firms operate across the continent. Activity may move in search of certainty. The second is by the remaining 27 EU members adopting an industrial policy that uses regulation to compel financial firms to move to the Euro zone. As Amsterdam, Frankfurt and Paris jostle for business, this fight is turning ugly. And the last is from within Britain—if a Corbyn government takes the country back decades, with nationalisation at below-market prices, a financial-transactions tax, a tough line on mergers and acquisitions and possibly even capital controls. If a Labour government also attacks private schools and second homes, London’s giant pools of capital will disappear faster than a trader’s cocktail.

第一方面是由于欧盟取消了允许金融城公司在欧洲大陆运营的“护照”，这一做法破坏了法律框架。行动可能是为了寻找确定性。第二方面是其余27个欧盟成员国采取产业政策，利用监管来迫使金融公司转移到欧元区。随着阿姆斯特丹、法兰克福和巴黎争夺业务，这场争斗正变得越来越丑陋。最后一方面来自英国国内——如果科尔宾政府让英国倒退几十年，伴随着低于市场价格的国有化、金融交易税、并购的强硬路线，甚至可能是资本控制。如果工党政府也反对私立学校和第二套住房，伦敦巨大的资本池将会比商人的鸡尾酒会消失得更快。

Given the sums at stake—London hosts $20trn of bank assets and securities—you might expect a grand bargain between the EUand its financial hub. Some chance. Britain has spurned the option of staying in the single market. A bespoke deal for financial services is not on the table because the EU is loth to grant special favours to a departing country. It is as if New York and Wall Street were divorcing America without any agreement. Thanks to temporary licences, the risk of a financial crisis on Brexit day is slim. But these arrangements will not last long—the deal over derivatives, say, expires next year.

考虑到所涉及的金额（伦敦拥有20万亿美元的银行资产和证券），你可能期望欧盟与伦敦金融中心达成一笔大交易。有机会。英国拒绝了留在单一市场的选择。为金融服务量身定制的协议不在谈判之列，因为欧盟不愿向一个即将离开的国家提供特别优惠。这就好像纽约和华尔街在没有达成任何协议的情况下就与美国分离了。由于临时许可，英国退欧当天爆发金融危机的风险很小。但这些安排不会持续太久——比方说，衍生品交易将于明年到期。

Behind the stand-off is a deep divide. The City could keep free access to the EU if it agreed to be regulated by it. But Britain rightly fears handing control of its largest industry to the bloc, particularly if the EU’s unspoken goal is to shrink London. Europe’s motives blend principle and greed. It wants to supervise its own financial system, but also to grab jobs and tax revenues from London. In the long run the most likely set-up is “equivalence”, in which firms receive recognition from Europe. The catch is that, as Switzerland is discovering, this can be withdrawn at any time, leading to a state of permanent instability. That threat will lead to a drift of activity and people into the Euro zone as EU authorities win full sovereignty over the Euro zone’s capital markets.

在这种僵局的背后，存在着巨大的分歧。如果伦敦金融城同意接受欧盟的监管，它可以保持自由进入欧盟的权利。但英国有理由担心，将其最大产业的控制权交给欧盟，尤其是如果欧盟的不言而喻的目标是缩小伦敦的规模的情况下。欧洲的动机混合了原则和贪婪。它想监管自己的金融体系，但也想从伦敦攫取就业和税收。从长远来看，最有可能的设置是“对等”，即企业获得欧洲的认可。但问题是，正如瑞士所发现的那样，这种做法可以在任何时候撤销，从而导致永久性的不稳定状态。随着欧盟当局赢得对欧元区资本市场的完全主权，这一威胁将导致大量活动和民众涌入欧元区。