2019年经济学人 熊彼特企业管理专栏--外卖经济学(3)（在线收听）

The only mouthwatering aspect of the delivery business is its potential size. According to Bernstein, a brokerage, almost a third of the global restaurant industry is made up of home delivery, takeaway and drive-throughs, which could be worth $1trn by 2023. In 2018 delivery amounted to $161bn, leaving plenty of room for online firms to expand; the seven largest increased revenues by an average of 58%. Their businesses support the trend of 20- and 30- somethings to live alone or in shared accommodation, with less time and inclination to cook. In China, by far the biggest market for food delivery, one-third of people told a survey that they would be prepared to rent a flat without a kitchen because of the convenience of delivery. Delivery also fits neatly with the gig-economy zeitgeist, alongside ride-hailing firms such as Uber, Lyft and China’s Didi.

外卖业唯一令人垂涎的方面是其潜在的规模。据经纪公司伯恩斯坦称，全球餐饮业近三分之一由送货上门、外卖和免下车服务组成，到2023年，这些服务的价值可能达到1万亿美元。2018年，快递总额达到1610亿美元，为在线公司留下了大量扩张空间；最大的7家公司的收入平均增长58%。这类企业支持了20多岁和30多岁的年轻人独居或合住的趋势，这些年轻人没有那么多时间和意愿做饭。在中国这个迄今为止最大的外卖市场，三分之一的人在接受调查时表示，由于外卖方便，他们愿意租一套没有厨房的公寓。与Uber、Lyft和中国滴滴等叫车公司一样，快递也完全符合零工经济的时代精神。

Yet as with ride-hailing, it is by no means clear if anyone can make money by delivering meals. In fact, the economics may be even worse. Co-ordination is more complicated. Meal-delivery firms must handle dishes that take different amounts of time to cook, while restaurants cope with orders from in-house customers. Most important, bookings must be split three ways: between delivery firms, restaurants and riders, rather than just between the ride-hailing firms and their drivers. The restaurants in particular are restive, not least because food is already a low-margin business. The most popular brands like McDonald’s and Starbucks wield the power to squeeze the delivery startups in exchange for access to millions of customers. Uber admits that Uber Eats may be forced to lower service fees for big restaurant chains.

然而，与叫车服务一样，目前还不清楚是否有人能通过送餐赚钱。事实上，经济状况可能更糟。协调则更为复杂。外卖公司必须处理不同烹饪时间的菜肴，而餐厅则要处理来自内部顾客的订单。最重要的是，预订必须分成三部分:快递公司、餐厅和骑手，而不仅仅是叫车公司和司机之间的预订。餐馆尤其不安，特别因为食品已经是一个低利润率的行业。麦当劳和星巴克等最受欢迎的品牌利用权力挤压初创送餐企业，以换取数以百万计的客户。Uber承认，Uber Eats可能会被迫降低大型连锁餐厅的服务费。