2019年经济学人 熊彼特企业管理专栏--外卖经济学(4)（在线收听）

Moreover, potential growth may be overstated. Subsidies make true demand hard to gauge. When delivery charges and service fees eventually rise, which they will have to if profits are to materialise, some customers may flee. In the meantime, cheap money lets firms undercut rivals but distorts incentives. The war of attrition could get even worse if giants like Amazon muscle in, as it has tried to do by buying a stake in Deliveroo (the deal is stalled at present because of antitrust concerns). Alibaba, Amazon’s Chinese counterpart, uses Ele.me as a loss leader helping drive traffic to its profitable e-commerce sites.

此外，潜在的增长可能被夸大了。补贴使得真实需求难以衡量。当快递费和服务费最终上涨时，一些客户可能会留不住。而要实现利润，快递费和服务费将不得不上涨。与此同时，廉价的资金让企业以低于竞争对手的价格收购，却扭曲了激励机制。如果像亚马逊这样的巨头介入，这场消耗战可能会变得更糟，因为亚马逊试图通过购买Deliveroo的股份来做到这一点(由于反垄断的担忧，该交易目前处于停滞状态)。亚马逊的中国竞争对手阿里巴巴的饿了么虽然亏损但能起到领导作用，帮助推动其盈利的电子商务网站的流量。

Delivery businesses have ways to cut their losses. One is to diversify further, by delivering groceries, flowers, booze, and even people (as Uber does), as well as meals. Another is to provide cheaper meals by centrally supplying ingredients to restaurants, or building “ghost kitchens” that prepare food only for delivery. In “winner takes most” markets, the best way to drive up volumes and share of the proceeds is through consolidation across countries and cities. Mr Groen’s attempt to gobble up Just Eat marks the biggest foray so far. In the unappetising dog-eat-dog world of food delivery, it will still be a hard deal to digest.

快递公司有办法减少损失。一个方法是进一步多样化，送杂货、鲜花、酒，甚至送人(就像Uber那样)，还有送餐。另一种方法是通过向餐馆集中供应食材，或者建造“幽灵厨房”，只为外卖准备食物，从而提供更便宜的饭菜。在“赢者通吃”市场中，提高销量、提高收益份额的最佳方式，是通过国家和城市间的整合。格伦先生试图狼吞虎咽地吃掉“Just Eat”，这是迄今为止规模最大的一次尝试。在这个令人生厌的自相残杀的送餐世界里，这仍然是一件很难消化的事情。