2019年经济学人 美国核条令(2)（在线收听）

Ms Warren’s impulse to constrain nuclear policy is right. However, her proposal could well have perverse effects that make the world less stable. Many of America’s allies, such as South Korea and the Baltic states, face large and intimidating rivals at a time when they worry about the global balance of power. They think uncertainty about America’s first use helps deter conventional attacks that might threaten their very existence, such as a Russian assault on Estoni. Were America to rule out first use, some of its Asian allies might pursue nuclear weapons of their own. Any such proliferation risks being destabilising and dangerous, multiplying the risks of nuclear war.

沃伦限制核政策的冲动是正确的。然而，她的提议很可能产生适得其反的效果，使世界更加不稳定。美国的许多盟友，如韩国和波罗的海国家，在担心全球力量平衡之际，面临着强大而令人生畏的对手。他们认为，美国首次使用核武器的不确定性有助于阻止可能威胁他们生存的常规攻击，比如俄罗斯对爱沙尼亚的攻击。如果美国排除首先使用核武器的可能性，一些亚洲盟友可能会发展自己的核武器。任何此类扩散都有破坏稳定和危险的风险，增加了核战争的风险。

The aim should be to maximise the deterrence from nuclear weapons while minimising the risk that they themselves become the cause of an escalation. The place to start is the question posed by Major Hering 46 years ago. No individual ought to be entrusted with the unchecked power to initiate annihilation, even if he or she has been elected to the White House. One way to check the president’s launch authority would be to allow first use, but only with collective agreement, from congressional leaders, say, or the cabinet.

其目标应该是最大限度地发挥对核武器的威慑作用，同时将核武器本身成为升级原因的风险降至最低。首先是46年前赫林少校提出的问题。任何个人都不应该被赋予发动毁灭的不受限制的权力，即使他或她已经当选总统。检查总统发射权限的一种方法是允许先使用，但必须得到国会领导人或内阁的集体同意。

There are other ways for a first-use policy to be safer. America should make clear that the survival of nations must be at stake. Alas, the Trump administration has moved in the opposite direction, warning that “significant nonnuclear strategic attack”, including cyberstrikes, might meet with a nuclear response. America can also make its systems safer. About a third of American and Russian nuclear forces are designed to be launched within a few minutes, without the possibility of recall, merely on warning of enemy attack. Yet in recent decades, missile launches have been ambiguous enough to trigger the most serious alarms. If both sides agreed to take their weapons off this hair-trigger, their leaders could make decisions with cooler heads.

第一次使用的政策还有其他更安全的方法。美国应该明确表示，各国的生存一定是受到了威胁。遗憾的是，特朗普政府采取了相反的行动，警告称“重大的非核战略攻击”，包括网络攻击，可能会遭遇核回应。美国也可以让它的系统更安全。美俄两国约三分之一的核力量计划在几分钟内发射，而且不可能撤回，只是在接到敌人进攻的警告后才发射。然而，近几十年来，导弹发射一直模棱两可，足以触发最严重的警报。如果双方都同意解除这种一触即发的武器，他们的领导人就能以更冷静的头脑做出决定。

Most of all, America can put more effort into arms control. The collapse of the Intermediate-range Nuclear Forces Treaty on August 2nd and a deadly radioactive accident in Russia involving a nuclear-powered missile on August 8th were the latest reminders that nuclear risks are growing just as the world’s ability to manage them seems to be diminishing.

最重要的是，美国可以在军备控制方面投入更多努力。8月2日《中程核力量条约》的瓦解，以及8月8日俄罗斯发生的一场涉及核动力导弹的致命放射性事故，都是最新的信号，表明核风险在不断增加，而世界应对风险的能力似乎正在减弱。