2019年经济学人 阿根廷经济—环境所迫(1)（在线收听）

Argentina was not invited to the Bretton Woods conference in 1944 that created the IMF, and it did not join until 1956.

1944年的布雷顿森林会议创建了国际货币基金组织（IMF），阿根廷没有被邀请参加，直到1956年它才加入IMF。

But it has been making its presence felt ever since. At the end of August a team from the IMF visited Buenos Aires

但自那时起，阿根廷在其中的存在感一直很强。8月底，一直来自IMF的团队来访布宜诺斯艾利斯，

to assess the lie of the land before deciding whether to give Argentina's government, led by Mauricio Macri,

团队要对该地进行评估以决定是否给予毛里西奥·马克里领导的政府

any more of the record $57bn loan (worth over 10% of Argentina's 2018 GDP) agreed last year. But as the team left town, the landscape shifted.

去年通过的570亿美元巨额贷款中的任何一笔（价值超过阿根廷2018年GDP的10%）。但随着团队离开小镇，情况发生了变化。

Mr Macri's government said it would delay $7bn-worth of repayments on shortterm bills held by institutional investors

马克里先生的政府表示其将推迟偿还机构投资者持有的70亿美元短期债券

and seek a rescheduling of over $50bn of longer-term debt.

并寻求对500多亿美元的更长期债务进行重新安排。

It would also request new, extended loans from the IMF to help Argentina repay the money it already owes them.

它还将要求IMF发放新的延期贷款以帮助阿根廷偿还已经欠下的债务。

As the markets digested the news, the ground moved again. On September 1st the government imposed currency controls,

随着市场消化了这一消息，市场再次出现了波动。9月1日，政府实施了货币管制

preventing Argentines from buying more than $10,000 a month, forcing exporters to convert their earnings into pesos,

阻止阿根廷人每月购买超过1万美元，迫使出口商将他们的收入转换成比索，

and placing new restrictions on companies' ability to buy foreign exchange.

并对公司购买外汇的能力实施了新的限制。

"This is not a port we imagined we would reach," said Hernan Lacunza, Mr Macri's new finance minister.

马克里政府的新财政部长埃尔南·拉昆萨表示“这不是我们认为自己将达到的港口。”

The president had, after all, cast off in precisely the opposite direction after coming to power in December 2015,

毕竟自2015年12月上台以来，总统已经向完全相反的方向发展

seeking to remove many of the clumsy impediments to market forces imposed by his predecessor, Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner.

以求移除前任总统克里斯蒂娜·费尔南德斯·德基什内尔对市场力量设置的许多不当的障碍。

Abolishing her currency controls and unifying Argentina's exchange rate was one of his earliest, proudest successes.

废除她的货币管控以及统一阿根廷的汇率是他初期最为自豪的成就之一。

Now Argentina once again has a black market for dollars, just as it did under Ms Fernandez.

现在阿根廷又一次出现了美元黑市，就像在费尔南德斯执政时期一样。

The reason for this dramatic reversal of policy is an equally dramatic reversal of political fortunes.

这种政策极具逆转的原因是政治命运的戏剧性逆转。

On August 11th Argentina held "primary" elections (which are contested by all parties and in which voting is universal and compulsory).

8月11日，阿根廷举行“初选”（所有党派都参与竞争并且进行全体强制性投票）。

Mr Macri lost decisively to an opposition ticket featuring Alberto Fernandez, a veteran Peronist, as president

马克里在反对派的竞选中惨败，输给了经验老到的庇隆主义者阿尔贝托·费尔南德斯

and Ms Fernandez as vice-president (the two are unrelated).

以及费尔南德斯女士，分别为总统和副总统（两者并无关联）。

The news that their victory in next month's presidential election was now almost certain alarmed Argentina's creditors,

他们在下个月总统选举中获胜的消息现在几乎肯定给阿根廷的债权人敲了警钟，

who feared they would fail to honour the country's debts, and corral capital flows.

债权人们担心他们无法偿还国家债务，资本流动受限。

The peso fell by 25%, the principal stockmarket index collapsed and the cost of insuring against default tripled.

比索下跌了25%，主要的股票指数暴跌，违约保险成本增加了两倍。

Neither sky-high interest rates nor the central bank's sales of dollar reserves could arrest the currency's fall.

无论是极高的利率还是央行出售美元储备都不能阻止货币下跌。

Since the government could not persuade foreigners to hold more pesos, it has been forced to stop Argentines buying too many dollars instead.

由于无法说服外国人持有更有比索，政府不得不转而阻止阿根廷人购买过多美元。