2019年经济学人 阿根廷经济—环境所迫(2)（在线收听）

Even if Mr Fernandez wins outright in October (avoiding a run-off election), he will not be sworn into office until December.

即使费尔南德斯在10月获胜（避免决选），他也要到12月才能就职。

But his words already have the power to move markets and shape the economy.

但他的话已经具备了推动市场和改革经济的力量。

His claim on August 30th that Argentina was in "virtual default" deepened the market sell-off

他在8月30日宣称，阿根廷处于“虚拟违约”中，这加剧了市场抛售

(Standard & Poor's, a rating agency, also declared that there had been a temporary, selective default on some of Argentina's obligations).

（评级机构标准普尔公司也宣布阿根廷的某些债务出现了暂时的选择性违约）。

Creditors will not renegotiate their debts with Mr Macri's lame-duck government,

债权人不会与马克里没用的政府就债务进行重新谈判，

fearing that Mr Fernandez might force bigger concessions later. The same worry may give pause to the IMF.

因为担心费尔南德斯可能会在以后迫使他们做出更大让步。同样的担忧可能会让IMF踌躇不前。

Why should it give billions of additional dollars to Argentina,

当其下一任总统指责IMF帮助制造了

when its next president accuses it of helping to create a "social catastrophe" of rising prices, unemployment and poverty?

物价上涨、失业和贫困等“社会灾难”时，它为什么应该给阿根廷额外的数十亿美元呢？

Advisers to Mr Fernandez say his campaign rhetoric should not be taken too seriously.

费尔南德斯的顾问表示，他的竞选言论不应被过于当真。

"Alberto is acting now as a candidate…appealing to the base; he will govern very differently," says one of his inner circle.

“阿尔贝托现在是候选人之一......很吸引选民；他将以非常不同的方式执政，”他的一个心腹说。

His chief economic adviser, Guillermo Nielsen, has published a more moderate ten-point agenda that leaves some room for optimism.

他的首席经济顾问古雷默·尼尔森发表了一份更加温和的十点议程，为乐观情绪留有余地。

It recognises the need for a budget surplus. And it envisages a "social pact" between the unions

议程承认了预算盈余的必要性并设想在工会和商业之间

and business to tame inflation by moderating wage-claims and price increases.

达成一份“社会公约”，通过降低工资要求和物价上涨来抑制通货膨胀。

A Peronist government under Mr Fernandez may find it easier to bring the unions into line than today's government does.

费尔南德斯领导下的庇隆主义政府或许会发现，与今天的政府相比，统一工会要容易得多。

According to Federico Sturzenegger, the former governor of Argentina's central bank,

阿根廷央行前行长费德里科·施图尔辛格表示，

Mr Macri's administration has eschewed that kind of dealmaking because it "did not want to sit the 'old-politics players' at the decision table".

马克里政府一直在回避这类交易，因为它“不想让‘老政客’坐在决策桌上”。

The next government may even consider much-needed reforms of labour laws and welfare entitlements,

下一届政府甚至可能考虑对劳动法和福利待遇进行急需的改革，

according to Emmanuel Alvarez Agis, another adviser who served under Nestor Kirchner, Ms Fernandez's late husband and predecessor as president.

另一名顾问Emmanuel Alvarez Agis说如是，他曾在费尔南德斯已故丈夫、前任总统内斯托尔·基什内尔手下任职。

"The future depends on building coalitions, for change, not governing just from one side or the other," he has said.

他说道，“未来取决于为变革而建立联盟，而不仅仅是管理某一方面”。

Mr Nielsen says the next government will negotiate with the IMF, rather than walk away from it.

尼尔森表示下一届政府不会退出而是将和IMF进行谈判。

Having already borrowed almost 80% of the $57bn on offer, Argentina will need new loans from the fund to help it repay the old ones.

在570亿美元的贷款中，阿根廷已经借入了近80%，因此阿根廷将需要IMF提供新的贷款，以帮助其偿还旧贷款。

Mr Nielsen has also described China as a potential "financial life jacket".

尼尔森也将中国描述为潜在的“金融救生衣”

Ms Fernandez, who has remained remarkably quiet during the campaign, is known to covet Chinese investment,

众所周知， 在竞选期间一直保持着惊人沉默的费尔南德斯女士渴望中国的投资，

which might be attracted to Argentina's infrastructure, 5G networks and renewable-energy projects.

中国投资者可能会被阿根廷的基础设施建设、5G网络以及可再生能源项目所吸引。

If that is the extent of Ms Fernandez's influence on the next government, foreign investors will be relieved. And so will some Argentines.

如果这就是费尔南德斯对下届政府的影响力，那么外国投资者将会松一口气。一些阿根廷人也能安心。

"Many of us could never vote for Cristina and Alberto Fernandez," says a retired woman,

“我们很多人永远不会投票给克里斯蒂娜和阿尔贝托·费尔南德斯”，

waiting at her bank this week to change pesos into dollars.

一名本周等在银行将比索兑换成美元的退休女士表示。

"But who can trust any of our politicians after all this?...I trust only my purse."

“但经历这一切后，我们的哪一位政治家是可以信任的呢？我只相信我的钱。”