2019年经济学人货币市场和美联储(1)（打印版）

The federal reserve had plenty to fret about as it prepared to discuss policy interest rates on September 17th and 18th.

当美联储准备在9月17日和18日讨论政策利率时，它有很多事情要担心。

Trade tensions and wilting global growth have seen businesses cut back investment in the second quarter of the year.

贸易紧张和萎靡的全球经济增长导致企业削减了今年第二季度的投资。

In manufacturing, production and capacity utilisation have been falling since the end of 2018.

自2018年底以来，制造业的生产和设备使用率一直在下降。

Though the Fed has described jobs growth as "solid", some analysts worry that the labour market is wobbling.

虽然美联储称就业增长“稳健”，但一些分析家担心劳动力市场动荡不安。

As expected, these concerns prompted the central bank to lower rates for the second time this year,

果然，这些担忧促使中央银行今年第二次降息

by 0.25 percentage points, to a target of 1.75-2%. But the meeting was overshadowed by turmoil in money markets.

0.25个百分点至1.75-2%的目标。但货币市场的动荡给这次会议蒙上了阴影。

On September 17th, for the first time in a decade, the Fed injected cash into the short-term money market.

9月17日，美联储十年内首次向短期货币市场注入资金。

The intervention was needed after the federal funds rate, at which banks can borrow from each other, climbed above the Fed's target.

在联邦基金利率（银行间拆借利率）攀升至美联储目标之上后，干预是有必要的。

It rose as the "repo" rate—the price at which high-quality securities

随着“回购”率—高质量证券

such as American government bonds can be temporarily swapped for cash—hit an intra-day peak of over 10%.

如美国政府债券暂时可换取现金的价格—超过单日高点的10%时，利率上涨。

On September 17th the Fed offered $75bn-worth of overnight funding, of which banks took up $53bn.

9月17日，美联储提供了750亿美元的隔夜资金，其中银行拿走了530亿美元。

The following two days it again offered $75bn-worth. Banks gobbled it up.

接下来的两天，美联储再次提供了750亿美元。银行将其吞入。

That sent shivers down spines. A spiking repo rate was an early warning sign before the financial crisis.

这让人毛骨悚然。回购利率飙升是金融危机前的一个早期预警信号。

In 2007, as market participants began to doubt the quality of collateral backed by mortgage lending, repo rates jumped as lenders hoarded cash.

2007年，由于市场参与者开始怀疑由抵押贷款支持的抵押品的质量，回购利率随着银行囤积现金而飙升。

The latest jump was unlikely to have been caused by such doubts.

最近一次暴涨不太可能是由这些疑虑引起的。

Most collateral is now high-quality American Treasury bonds or bills. Even so, there are reasons to worry.

现在大多数抵押品都是高质量的美国国债或票据。即便如此，还是有理由担忧。

America's banks and companies seem to be short of cash. And during the turmoil the repo rate stopped tracking the federal funds rate.

美国银行和公司似乎缺钱。并且在市场动荡期间，回购利率不再跟随联邦基金利率。

This link is the main way monetary policy influences the economy.

这种联系是货币政策影响经济的主要方式。

A gap opening between the two deprives the Fed of its most important policy tool.

两者之间的差距剥夺了美联储最重要的政策工具。