2014年经济学人 瑞士手表与苹果手表 这和看时间没有关系（在线收听）

Swiss watches and the Apple Watch

It's not about time

Traditional watchmakers are confident they can see off Apple's new bauble

WHEN cheap, accurate quartz watches started pouring out ofAsiain the 1970s, many Swiss watchmakers went bust. But the survivors recovered their sangfroid and went on to prosper as crafters of stylish timepieces that proclaim the wearer's taste and status better than any electronic gizmo could.

Do Apple's new smartwatch and devices like it portend another quartz catastrophe? Some think they might. Wrists are “prime real estate”, points out Richard Seymour, a design consultant. Many people park expensive watches there—especially men, since that is the main sort of jewellery that convention allows them. So if smartwatches catch on, they could evict the Swiss baubles.

That seems to be Apple's ambition. It has been poaching talent from fashion houses. Its new watches aim to be more than gadgets: some have 18-carat gold cases. Sir Jonathan Ive, Apple's design chief, has reportedly boasted to colleagues that the Swiss are in trouble.

They are not trembling yet. Smartwatches are a mere “information tool” that say “nothing special” about the wearer, says Jean-Claude Biver, chairman of Hublot, a Swiss brand owned by LVMH, a big luxury group. They become obsolete as soon as the technology advances. Swiss watchmakers, on the other hand, are selling “eternity in a box.”

Cheaper and less eternal Swiss-watch brands, from low-end ones like Swatch to mid-market ones like Tissot and Hamilton, seem most at risk. Swatch has already tried to get into smartwatches, in an ill-fated venture with Microsoft a decade ago, and plans to try again. However, Jon Cox of Kepler Cheuvreux, a stockbroker, points out that watches costing $500 or less provide just 6% of the industry's revenues, so it could survive their loss. Since Swatch also owns several upmarket brands and makes parts for many others, just 5% of its profits are at risk from Apple's watch, Mr Cox reckons.

Mr Biver thinks it may even boost Swiss watchmakers by getting youngsters used to wearing something pricey on their wrists. Existing customers may wear Apples for everyday use, but slip into something more enviable for social occasions. Mr Seymour is not so sure: he thinks Apple will do its utmost to make people wear its watch all the time.