2015年经济学人 同性恋投票 公之于众(在线收听) |
The gay vote Coming out The Conservative Party is winning over some gay voters True pink WHEN the Conservative prime minister, David Cameron, decided to champion same-sex marriage in 2011, many of his backbenchers were horrified. The pledge was not in his manifesto; the softer aspects of his election campaign were more focused on green issues and helping wayward youths than on gay rights. When, in 2014, the act passed into law, 133 Conservatives voted against it and many disgruntled activists left the party. But, as he seeks re-election, Mr Cameron's gamble may gradually be paying off. Around 6% of the British population are estimated to be gay. But little definitive statistical evidence exists on how they vote, says Joe Twyman, of YouGov, a pollster. Generally, he says, they tend to be slightly less fond of the Conservatives than is the population as a whole, and slightly more likely to support Labour or the bedraggled Liberal Democrats. In a YouGov poll of gay, lesbian and bisexual people last year, two-thirds of those asked said that they would not vote for an MP who had voted against same-sex marriage (the other third said they would). But it is not their biggest concern: like the broader population, the economy and health care are the most pressing issues, says Mr Twyman. Yet the passing of the same-sex marriage act seems to have given David Cameron and some members of his party, such as the gay-friendlyLondonmayor Boris Johnson (pictured), a boost. “It made me less anti-Tory,” admits Tom Chinnery, a 32-year-old from Manchesterwho married his husband six weeks ago. Mr Chinnery was struck by Mr Cameron “standing up” to more traditional party members. His disagreement with the Tories is now restricted to their policies on Europe and the economy. This may help the Conservatives: a self-selected poll of 986 people from PinkNews, a website, in April found that 26% would consider voting for the Conservatives, up from 21% in 2010. The change in the law also made those who had previously voted for the party feel more confident to continue doing so, argues Margot James, the Conservative MP for Stourbridge, who is gay. The passing of the act, along with more funds for tackling homophobic bullying in schools, “redressed the balance with Labour”, she says. Differences between the two parties over questions of gay rights and equality have become less marked as a result. But perhaps the biggest boost for the party is yet to come. After the same-sex marriage vote, Philip Cowley, a psephologist at the University of Nottingham, worked out that 58% of Conservative MPs born after 1970 voted for it, in contrast to 45% of those born before that year. Younger people are more likely to be socially liberal and to support same-sex marriage. Undecided future voters are less likely to see the Conservatives as the nasty party on gay issues. And gay people who might once have been furtive in voting for them can now be bolder about their choice. After all, for some, coming out as a Conservative may once have been as hard as coming out as gay. |
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