2015年经济学人 马克卡尼 英国银行新晋领导人（在线收听）

19

Mark Carney

马克·卡尼

I mean what I say

“言出必行”

The new governor is struggling to convince sceptical markets

英国银行新晋领导人正试图极力说服持怀疑态度的国内市场

CREDIBILITY is treasured by central bankers. It is after all why politicians, who patently lack that precious quality, have entrusted the monetary guardians with the job of taming inflation. But what happens when investors do not believe a supposedly binding central-bank commitment to keep interest rates low?

信誉对于央行行长们来说是极其珍贵的，而这也正是为何那些早已将个人信誉消耗殆尽的政客们委任这些“货币守护者”来遏止通货膨胀的原因。但当投资方不再信任央行曾信誓旦旦“维持国内低利率”的承诺的后果将会是什么？

The answer this week from Mark Carney, the Canadian governor of the Bank of England, was to set out again the case for the forward guidance which had failed to convince the markets when he first delivered it earlier this month. Speaking in Nottingham on August 28th he also announced a relaxation in banks' liquidity requirements to encourage lending. But Mr Carney's speech seemed unlikely to sway the sceptics. They doubt that the bank's base rate, which has been at a three-century low of 0.5% for over four years, will stay there for another three.

而这位加拿大籍英国银行行长马克·卡尼于本周作出相关回应，即再次利用他于本月前几日提出的相关明细着手处理该事——尽管卡尼先生首次提出该提议时在说服相关市场方面收效甚微。他于8月28日在诺丁汉的演说中宣称，将放宽银行的货币流通需求以此来刺激借贷，但该演说似乎并未打消投资方的疑虑，他们不断质疑银行的基本利率在四年之内一直保持三百年来的最低态势——0.5%仍将持续至下一个三年。

Mr Carney's task is tricky because the bank's forward guidance is about as clear as an insurance policy once the small print has been read. The crucial pledge is that the bank's monetary-policy committee (MPC) will not think about raising interest rates until the unemployment rate, currently 7.8%, falls to 7%. Since the bank's own forecast shows this will take until well into 2016, the MPC is in effect promising to sit on its hands for another three years. But that seemingly straightforward commitment comes with “knockout” clauses. If inflation becomes a threat or financial stability is being endangered, forward guidance will no longer apply.

鉴于英国银行之前的明细规定，与用极难阅读的小字印刷的保险理赔条款一般“清晰明确”，卡尼先生的该项策略实属明智之举，最为关键的是，英国银行下属的货币政策委员会（monetary-policy committee—MPC）在国家失业率由目前的7.8%下降至7%之前，将不会再提高利率，而由于银行预测显示该形式预计在2016年才会有所好转，若货币政策委员会（MPC）履行承诺，那么他们将会在接下来的三年内不再插手该事，然而委员会却道貌岸然地提出了所谓“淘汰”条款，即当通货膨胀构成威胁或国家经济稳定形势岌岌可危时，之前的规定将不再作数。

Mr Carney did not rely solely on argument. The Canadian said that if market expectations of higher interest rates tightened credit conditions and the recovery seemed to be falling short of the strong growth needed the MPC would “consider carefully whether and how best to stimulate the recovery further.” But that veiled threat seems unlikely to put the frighteners on the markets.

卡尼先生并不是单纯地以争论取胜。这位加拿大人表示，如果市场对于利率上升的预期致使信贷条件紧缩，并且经济复苏势头落于民众日益增长的需求之后，那么货币政策委员会（MPC）将会“认真考虑计划如何进一步刺激经济复苏。”但这包含威胁的潜台词似乎并未对经济市场产生任何影响。

Mr Carney is fortunate in taking over as governor as the economy makes an unexpectedly robust recovery after a prolonged period in the dumps. But his good luck is also snagging his pet policy. For if so much can change in a matter of months, guidance stretching out for three years is bound to be questioned.

在英国经济经历了一段长时间的低迷转而出现意料之外的强劲复苏势头之时，卡尼先生接管英国经济无疑是幸运的。然而有得必有失，机遇给他带来好运同时也限制了他政策的制定，但如果该政策规定在短短几月就奏效的话，那么是否其执行力能保证三年依然是一个未知数。