2016年经济学人 私募股权和阿拉伯之春（在线收听）

Finance and Economics

财经商业

Private equity and the Arab spring

私募股权和阿拉伯之春

Tentative steps

投石问路

Investor interest in the Middle East and north Africa remains cautious

投资者对中东、北非的兴趣依旧谨慎

THE hot money may rush in and out—Egypt’s Case 30 index has posted a 29.3% gain so far this year, for example, after shedding 49.3% in 2011. But a more meaningful gauge of investors’ perceptions of the Middle East and north Africa is the flow of longer-term money.

依埃及的情况，中东-北非可能有热钱忽进忽出。例如，埃及目前公布的30项指标在2011年下跌49.3%，今年涨幅为29.3%。而投资者则根据长期资金的流动这一更有意义的指标来感知中东和北非。

The private-equity industry is still a long way off its pre-crisis peaks. The high point was 2007, with $4.1 billion of deals (these figures exclude Turkey, a hot destination which counts as European in the industry data, and Israel, an entrepreneurial ecosystem all of its own). Many of the regional funds that operated back then have closed, and only the most intrepid investors, most of them local, remain active. The average deal size has dropped from $172m in 2007 to $30m last year.

中东-北非的私募股权业若想重归危机以前的峰值，仍有漫漫长路要走。2007年，私募股权业凭41亿美元的交易攀至业界巅峰，土耳其和以色列则不在计算之列，前者虽为投资热点，但业内数据将其视为为欧洲国家，后者则有自己独特的企事业生态系统。彼时运转的大多数区域基金，现今都已结束营业，唯有最具胆识的投资者活跃至今，其中多为本地人。平均交易规模已从2007年的1.72亿美元，跌落至去年的3000万美元。

If the glory days are very much in the past, the numbers suggest that investors are slowly regaining their appetite after the initial shock of the Arab spring. Deals worth $475m have been done so far this year, according to Dealogic. That already outstrips the 2011 tally of $237m.

如果说，辉煌荣耀已属于昨天，那上图的数据显示，在经历过阿拉伯之春带来的最初的震撼后，投资者们已慢慢重拾对私募股权业的偏好。Dealogic的数据显示，今年以来的交易总值已达4.75亿美元，早已超过2011年2.37亿美元的记录。

Egypt, whose 85m-strong population helped make it the most popular destination for private-equity investments in the region between 2003 and 2008, has suffered from both the financial crisis and the revolution last year. But the prospect of lasting change in the aftermath of Egypt’s presidential election excites many. “Egypt is not very different from Turkey before Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Brazil before Lula da Silva,” says Ahmed Heikal, who heads Citadel Capital, a fund in Cairo. “If there is some stability, we will witness significant growth.”

在2003年至2008年期间，埃及依靠着自己8500万的庞大人口，一度成为北非-中东一带最热门的私募股权投资地。但如今，却深受金融危机和去年革命的双重冲击。然而，埃及总统大选的余波预示着持久的改变，如此前景让许多人心潮澎湃。开罗基金公司Citadel Capital总裁Ahmed Heikal说，“现今的埃及，同雷杰普·塔伊普·埃尔多安执政前的土耳其，和卢拉·达·席尔瓦上台前的巴西有很多相似处。如果埃及能稳定些，我们将见证埃及的强劲增长。”

Turbulence today also gives brave investors useful negotiating leverage. “We see Egypt as more favourable than before the revolution because the competition has backed off,” says Romen Mathieu of EuroMena II, a Beirut-based $100m fund that has just invested in a chain of eye clinics in Egypt. Mr Mathieu reckons that it is easier to win concessions about the level of control funds have over portfolio firms.

当下动荡的市场也成为大胆的投资者手中有用的谈判筹码。EuroMena II是一家设在贝鲁特的一亿美元基金，该基金刚在埃及投资了多家眼科门诊。EuroMena II的Romen Mathieu说，“革命将埃及的竞争一扫而光，所以革命后的埃及对我们更有利”。 Mathieu先生预计，基金在对投资组合公司的控制等级上将更容易赢得让步。

Saudi Arabia is the only other country in the region with comparable heft to Egypt. Algeria has huge potential but the regulations change too often for it to appeal. Other countries are small or, like Syria, off-limits for obvious reasons. So funds often look for portfolio firms with regional potential. “The Arab world is only 350m people so we go for businesses that can capitalise on this by being regional or expect to expand regionally,” says Mustafa Abdel-Wadood of Abraaj Capital, a $7.5 billion emerging-markets firm based in Dubai. That requires expertise many funds lack. “Most funds realise they need operational managers who know how to grow a business in the region,” says one local analyst. “But they can be hard to find.”

沙特阿拉伯是中东-北非地区唯一与埃及实力相当的国家。阿尔及利亚虽潜力巨大，怎奈频繁变动的监管机构令其吸引力大打折扣。其他国家或为小国，或如叙利亚，受限制原因显而易见。于是，基金常常寻找具有区域潜能的投资组合公司。新兴市场公司Abraaj Capital总资产75亿美元，总部设在迪拜，公司的Mustafa Abdel-Wadood说，“阿拉伯世界仅有3.5亿人口，所以我们投资的是能够利用这一特点具备地域性，或有望在区域内扩张的企业。” 这所要求的专业知识也恰是大多数基金所缺少的。当地某分析师称，“大多数基金意识到，他们需要熟知如何在这一地区发展生意的运营经理。但这样的人才寥寥无几。”

None of which makes an immediate uptick in Western funds’ activity seem likely. The potential for further political upheaval remains great, and there are many obstacles to private equity’s growth. Most businesses are family-owned and it can easily take a year to earn the trust needed to complete a deal, says Mr Mathieu. There are barriers to taking controlling stakes in portfolio companies, particularly in Saudi Arabia. Exit opportunities are not obvious. An investing revolution to follow the political one will take time.

要想凭借以上几点立刻提高西方基金的活跃度的可能性不高。中东北非地区继续发生政治动荡的几率巨大，私募股权的成长之途障碍重重。Mathieu先生说，阿拉伯世界绝大多数企业都为家族企业，如果交易需要，他们可以轻松用一年时间来赢得基金的信任。而若想在投资组合公司中获得控股权，也要面临层层阻碍，尤其是在沙特阿拉伯的公司。抽身机会并不明显。如此看来，若想紧跟政治革命发动投资革命，还需要些时日。