美国国家公共电台 NPR 朝鲜给美国划定最后期限 威胁将中止谈判（在线收听）

The Trump administration has tried what it calls a maximum pressure campaign to get North Korea to give up its nuclear weapons. North Korea recently ramped up a pressure campaign of its own. It says the U.S. has until the end of the year to offer concessions, otherwise North Korea says it will break off negotiations and adopt a policy Kim Jong Un has called the new way. NPR's Anthony Kuhn reports from Seoul on what that new way might be.

ANTHONY KUHN, BYLINE: In recent weeks, a series of North Korean top officials have delivered similar messages — the U.S.'s window of opportunity is closing fast; Pyongyang is not interested in any more fruitless meetings or summits. Publicly, the U.S. does not seem to feel constrained by the ultimatum.

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STEPHEN BIEGUN: We do not have a year-end deadline.

KUHN: That's Special Envoy on North Korea Stephen Biegun speaking at a Senate confirmation hearing for his new job as deputy secretary of state this week.

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BIEGUN: That's an artificial deadline set by the North Koreans, and unfortunately, it's a deadline that they've set upon themselves now.

KUHN: But some U.S.-North Korea experts are concerned about what happens when the clock runs out.

ROBERT CARLIN: We're on the edge of a cliff, and we don't have a lot of time to back away.

KUHN: Robert Carlin is a visiting scholar at Stanford University and former State Department official who has extensive experience negotiating with the North Koreans.

CARLIN: But we have to remember that as bad as things are with North Korea at any one time, they can always get worse. The idea that time is on our side and that we can simply wait out the North Koreans has been proven to be false.

KUHN: It was in this year's New Year's address that Kim Jong Un warned that he might adopt new policies if the U.S. doesn't give him what he wants. Last month, Kim was pictured galloping astride a white horse across Mount Paektu, mythical birthplace of the founder of the first Korean kingdom. State television news anchor, Ri Chun-hee, known for her dramatic delivery read the news.

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RI CHUN-HEE: (Through interpreter) All the officials who accompanied him to the top of the mountain felt overflowing emotion and joy. They were convinced that there will be a great operation to strike the world with wonder again and further advance the Korean revolution.

KUHN: It's not clear if this means Kim has decided to strike out on his new way, but the reports seemed to suggest that Kim was mulling some weighty strategic decision. Choi Yong-hwan, senior researcher at the Institute for National Security Strategy, a think tank affiliated with South Korea's intelligence services, says whatever the new way includes, it's not looking good.

CHOI YONG-HWAN: (Through interpreter) North Korea may choose to strengthen its nuclear capabilities, deploy nuclear weapons they already have or work on completing advanced missile technologies they haven't completed yet.

KUHN: Choi adds that the new way would likely emphasize economic self-sufficiency in the face of sanctions and diplomatic reliance on China and Russia. None of these are, in fact, very new, but what worries Robert Carlin is the U.S.'s reaction if the North goes back to testing nuclear weapons and long-range missiles.

CARLIN: I think there's going to be a ferocious American response. I don't think people understand the chemistry in the United States that will take hold when it's clear to people that they themselves are targeted by North Korean missiles.

KUHN: Kim Jong Un may reveal his decision when he gives his next annual New Year's address.

Anthony Kuhn, NPR News, Seoul.

特朗普政府试图用所谓的“最大限度施压行动”让朝鲜放弃核项目。最近，朝鲜加大了其施压行动的力度。朝方表示，美国做出让步的最后期限是今年年底，如届时美国不让步，那朝鲜就将终止谈判，并实行金正恩称为“新方式”的政策。NPR新闻的安东尼·库恩将从首尔和我们连线，解释“新方式”的可能含义。

安东尼·库恩连线：最近几周，朝鲜多名高级官员发表了类似的言论，即美国的机会之窗很快就将关闭；朝鲜对任何没有成果的会谈或峰会不再感兴趣。表面上看，这一最后通牒似乎并未令美国感到压迫。

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斯蒂芬·比根：我们没有年底截止的最后期限。

库恩：这是美国对朝鲜问题特别代表斯蒂芬·比根本周出席参议院举行的副国务卿提名确认听证会时所说。

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比根：这是朝鲜人为设定的最后期限，不幸的是，现在这成为了他们给自已设定的最后期限。

库恩：但是，一些美朝关系专家对最后期限截止后的情况感到担心。

罗伯特·卡林：我们现在在悬崖边上，我们没有太多时间退让了。

库恩：罗伯特·卡林是斯坦福大学的访问学者，也是前国务院官员，他拥有与朝鲜谈判的丰富经验。

卡林：但我们必须记住，任何时候美朝关系处于糟糕状态时，情况可能随时会继续恶化。“时间站在我们这边，我们只需要等待朝鲜的行动”这种观点已经被证实是失败的。

库恩：金正恩在今年的新年讲话中警告称，如果美国不给他他想要的，那他可能会实行新政策。上个月，金正恩被拍到骑着一匹白马在白头山策马扬鞭，白头山据说是朝鲜太祖的诞生地。因风格夸张而闻名的朝鲜国家电视台新闻主持人李春姬播报了这则新闻。

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李春姬：（经过翻译）所有陪同他登上白头山顶的官员均感受到了满溢的情感和愉悦。他们相信会有一场伟大的行动再次令世界惊叹，同时进一步推进朝鲜革命。

库恩：目前并不清楚这是否意味着金正恩已经决定推行新方式，不过报道似乎表明，金正恩正在考虑一些重要的战略性决定。韩国国家安保战略研究所是隶属于韩国情报机构的智库，该研究所的高级研究员崔勇焕（音译）表示，无论新方式包括哪些举措，看起来都不太妙。

崔勇焕（音译）：（经过翻译）朝鲜可能会选择加强其核能力，部署他们已制造出的核武器，或致力于完成还未实现的先进导弹技术。

库恩：崔勇焕（音译）还指出，新方式很可能会强调面对制裁时的经济自足，以及对中国和俄罗斯的外交依赖。事实上，这些均不是新举措，但令罗伯特·卡林担心的是，如果朝鲜重启核武器和远距离导弹测试，那美国会作何回应。

卡林：我认为美国会作出猛烈的回应。我认为当人们知道自已成为朝鲜导弹的目标时，他们并不了解美国国内会发生哪种化学反应。

库恩：金正恩可能会在下次发表新年讲话时公布他的决定。

NPR新闻，安东尼·库恩首尔报道。