美国国家公共电台 NPR 总理辞职难解政治乱局 恐惧与暴力蔓延伊拉克（在线收听）

It is a revolution. That's according to one Iraqi man quoted in The Guardian newspaper. More than 400 demonstrators have been killed in Iraq since the anti-government protests began in October. Now the country's prime minister, Adel Abdul Mahdi, is stepping down. The Iraqi Parliament has approved his resignation of his Cabinet in its meeting today. His government is expected, though, to assume a caretaker role until a new prime minister is selected. And that may take some time. We're joined now by Laith Kubba, an independent adviser to outgoing Prime Minister Adel Abdul Mahdi. Welcome to the program.

LAITH KUBBA: Thank you.

GARCIA-NAVARRO: Four hundred people have been killed in these protests. Security forces killed 45 protesters on Thursday in Nasiriyah. It's the blood of the Iraqi people that's being spilled by its own government. Shouldn't this resignation have happened sooner? And why didn't it?

KUBBA: It should have happened. I was one of many who advised the prime minister not to take responsibility for the killings that took place earlier, bearing in mind there will be follow-up on them and bearing in mind he shouldn't be fully responsible for what happened.

I think he got signals from many circles, international and local, to stay on and that he can contain the situation. I think they've grossly underestimated the rage that was out there, and they've misread basically what it was all about. It wasn't about small politics and parties seeking more jobs. It was much deeper than that. And I think up until this moment, not all politicians have read the situation as it is emerging now.

GARCIA-NAVARRO: First, in the U.S., there was a lot of money and blood spent in Iraq after the U.S. invasion. The U.S. still has some influence. How engaged has this administration been in the transition?

KUBBA: I think there has been a vacuum, of course, recently. I think Iraq has dropped off the radar screen. It's very much at the back burner. And I think, wrongly, they also given messages to the prime minister that his continuity in power after the riots and after the killings is a desirable goal for the U.S. and that it's better that he stays in power. Iran gave him the same signals, and I think the U.K. also gave him that signal. This was after the initial round of killings that took place. I think that gave the prime minister the confidence that he should stay on. But as he said, he totally misread the mood in the country.

GARCIA-NAVARRO: Yeah. What was ushered in, in part, by the U.S. invasion of Iraq is sectarianism, the rise of the influence of Iran, as you mentioned, militia violence and a ruling class that the protesters say has plundered the country. People are saying that this is now a revolution to get rid of the elites. Can Iraq hold itself together, in your view?

KUBBA: I think Iraq can hold itself together, but certainly, there need to be serious changes in the 2003 regime. I think with all the good intentions and with all the misgivings about how the U.S. read the country — but the bottom line — the system that was built and the powers that took over that system had led the country now to a dead end. The country cannot continue with that system and with this political class.

So the question now is how to map out a transition that will be least costly to the country, bearing in mind Iraq — in the midst of a region full of turbulence and violence, Iraq has just got itself out of the water with ISIL, with Daesh. And it needed a year, at least, to pick itself together. Now we are back again to the drawing board, trying to modify the system. And my guess is Iraq can make it, but it takes — it will take a transition.

GARCIA-NAVARRO: On Friday, the powerful cleric Muqtada al-Sadr said the protesters should continue to press their demands and that the people, not the government, should pick the next prime minister. Who do you see getting the job? And with that being the case, I mean, it seems that a lot of volatility might be ahead.

KUBBA: I think phase one is that the same elite will try to put a candidate, but everybody knows this is not going to work. I think we need to focus on a transition where a council of dignitaries play an intermediary role to win the confidence back again of the street into the government and into the process.

GARCIA-NAVARRO: Laith Kubba was an adviser to the outgoing Prime Minister Abdul Abdul Mahdi. He joined us from London. Thank you so much for speaking with us.

KUBBA: Thank you.

这是一场革命。这是一名伊拉克男子在接受《卫报》采访时所说。自10月伊拉克爆发反政府抗议以来，目前已造成400余名示威者死亡。现在，伊拉克总理阿迪勒·阿卜杜勒-迈赫迪宣布辞职。今天，伊拉克议会在会议期间批准了总理及其内阁的辞呈。不过，预计他领导的政府将继续担任看守角色，直到新总理人选确定。这可能需要一些时间。下面我们将连线莱斯·库巴，他是即将离职的伊拉克总理阿迪勒·阿卜杜勒-迈赫迪的独立顾问。欢迎你。

莱斯·库巴：谢谢。

加西亚·纳瓦罗：这些抗议活动已造成400人死亡。周四，伊拉克安全部队在纳西里耶市的行动致45名示威者死亡。可以说，伊拉克政府制造了本国民众的流血事件。总理是否应该早些辞职呢？为什么他现在才辞职？

库巴：总理本该更早一些辞职。许多人曾建议总理不要为早前发生的杀戮事件负责，我也是其中之一，要记住，这会有后续发展，而且总理不应该为这些事件负全责。

我认为，他从国际社会和国内等许多圈子获得了信号，即他应该继续执政，他可以控制局势。我想这是因为他们严重低估了抗议民众的愤怒，他们误解了抗议原因。这不是小型团体在寻求更多工作。而是有更深层次的原因。我认为直到现在，也不是所有政治家都了解目前的局势。

加西亚·纳瓦罗：在美国入侵伊拉克之后，美国在伊拉克投入了大量资金，同时也付出了鲜血。现在美国在伊拉克仍有一定的影响力。那这届政府如何参与过渡进程？

库巴：当然，最近的确存在真空状态。我认为伊拉克从雷达屏上消失了。基本上处于次要位置。我认为这向总理传递了错误的信号，即他在暴乱和杀戮事件后继续执政对美国来说是理想目标，他最好继续掌权。伊朗也向他传递了同样的信号，我认为英国也传递了这样的信号。这是首轮杀戮事件发生之后的情况。在我看来，这使总理获得了继续执政的信心。但如他所说，他完全误解了国内的情绪。

加西亚·纳瓦罗：好。某种程度上来说，美国入侵伊拉克带来了宗派主义、伊朗影响力的崛起、民兵暴力事件以及抗议者称在掠夺国家的统治阶层。人们称这是摆脱精英阶层的革命。那在你看来，伊拉克能团结起来吗？

库巴：我认为伊拉克可以团结起来，当然，2003年的政权的确需要进行重大变革。我认为，美国对伊拉克的解读可能出于善意，可能带有疑虑，但关键在于，所建立的体系以及掌控这一体系的政权现在将国家带到了死胡同。伊拉克不能再继续这一体系，也不能继续由这一政治阶层领导。

现在的问题是，如何制定对伊拉克来说代价最小的过渡方案，记住，伊拉克所在的地区充斥着动荡和暴力，而且伊拉克刚刚摆脱ISIL（也称为“达伊沙”）。伊拉克至少需要一年的时间来团结。现在我们又要从头开始，试图调整体系。我认为伊拉克能做到，但需要过渡期。

加西亚·纳瓦罗：上周五，有影响力的宗教领袖穆克塔达·萨德尔表示，抗议者应该坚持他们的要求，决定下任总理人选的应该是人民，而不是政府。你认为谁会成为下一任总理？在这种情况下，似乎未来的局势依然十分动荡。

库巴：我认为在第一阶段，精英阶层会试图提名候选人，但所有人都知道这行不通。我认为我们需要关注过渡进程，由政要组成的委员会将扮演媒介作用，以重新赢得抗议者对政府及过渡进程的信心。

加西亚·纳瓦罗：莱斯·库巴曾是伊拉克即将离职的总理阿迪勒·阿卜杜勒-迈赫迪的顾问。以上是他从伦敦和我们进行的连线。非常谢谢你。

库巴：谢谢。