2018年经济学人 自由交流:疯狂，恐慌和ICO(3)（在线收听）

Human quirks also play a role.

人类的怪癖也起到一定的作用。

Robert Shiller, who helped create the subfield now known as behavioural finance (and won a Nobel prize), reckons that ideas about markets spread like an epidemic.

曾为如今以行为金融学而出名的分支（并且获得了一次诺贝尔奖）的创建有所贡献的罗伯特·希勒指出，有关市场的观点，传播起来像是一种病毒。

At any point in time, multiple stories about the future are potentially true, and have evidence supporting or undermining them.

无论何时，关于未来的倍数故事都是潜在正确的，而且还有证据支持或者是动摇它们。

Sometimes, particular stories become infectious.

有时，个别的几个故事变得具有传染性。

Investors under their sway hear good news and are deaf to the bad - and spread the bullish bug to others.

在它们的影响下，投资者听到的是好消息，对坏消息充耳不闻——并将牛市狂热传染给他人。

An ICO may be a consequential innovation, so early entrants will make a mint.

ICO可能是一种必然的创新，因此，早期的参与者会赚到一大笔钱。

But it may be that regulators will prevent them becoming more than a curiosity (both China and South Korea have banned them).

但是，监管者将阻止它们变得超出一种稀缺物品是有可能的（中国和韩国都封杀了它们）。

Worsening news for ICOs could make pessimistic stories the next virus.

针对ICO的日渐恶化的消息可能令悲观故事成为下一个病毒。

Viral optimism may be especially common in the winner-takes-all contests so frequent within digital markets.

在数字市场内如此频繁的赢者通吃的竞争中，病毒性的乐观可能尤为常见。

Platform-based firms (which aim to provide a digital space within which other enterprises can do business) or social networks grow more valuable as they gain users.

随着它们赢得用户，（意在提供其他企业能够在其中做买卖的数字空间）的平台公司或是社交网络变得愈发值钱。

People want to be where everyone else is.

人们想有着随大流的想法。

In such cases, one of many contenders eventually dominates, and those with a stake in its success, whether shares or tokens, reap vast rewards.

在这类情况下，众多竞争者中的一个终将称霸，而那些对其成功下了赌注的人，不管是股权还是代币，收获的是巨大的回报。

But because investors lack perfect foresight, the levels at which markets value nearly all contending firms will, in hindsight, appear to have been obviously bubbly.

但是，由于投资者缺乏完全的预见，市场用以为几乎所有的竞争公司进行估值的水平，事后来看，会看上去已经是明显地有泡沫了。

In the same way, the value of the winning firm, which looked laughably high during the bubble, will later look reasonable.

同样，大获全胜的公司在泡沫其间看上去高得可笑的估值，后来会看起来是合理的。

One or two of the ICOs - and cryptocurrencies themselves - stand to follow such a path, if they come into wide use.

倘若进入广泛应用，ICO中的一、二个——以及各种加密货币本身——比将走上一条这样的道路。

Think a crypto version of Google (and pity those holding tokens for crypto-AltaVista).

想想加密版的谷歌（并对可怜可怜那些持有加密版远景公司代币的人）吧。

Bursts of investor enthusiasm sometimes (if not always) spur experimentation and investment, laying a foundation for future growth.

投资者热情的迸发（如果不是总是如此的话），时常激发出试验和投资，为未来的增长打下基础。

Caution is needed, however.

不过，谨慎是必要的。

Markets are not perfectly efficient.

市场不是完全有效的。

But they are usually efficient enough to punish those who mistake a bet on one version of the future for a sure thing.

但是，它们通常又是有效的，足以惩罚那些误将对未来的某个版本的赌注认为是某种必然之事的人。