2018年经济学人 推特治国:特朗普政府的外交政策(2)（在线收听）

Many people find reassurance in the sober, capable military men who surround him.

许多人在他身边的那些头脑冷静、办事干练的军方人士那里寻找安慰。

His chief of staff, his defence secretary and his national security adviser all understand the horrors of war and will stop him from doing anything rash, the argument goes.

这种观点认为，他的幕僚长、国防部长和国家安全顾问，全都了解战争的可怕，因而会阻止他有任何鲁莽之举。

Optimists even speculate that he might emulate Ronald Reagan, by shaking up the diplomatic establishment, restoring America's military muscle and projecting such strength abroad that a frightened, over-stretched North Korea will crumble like the Soviet Union.

乐观派甚至预测，他可能效仿里根，通过重组外交机构，借以恢复美国的军事力量并将其投放到国外。这样，受到惊吓、超负荷运转的北朝鲜就会像苏联一样崩溃。

Others confidently predict that even if he causes short-term damage to America's standing in the world, Mr Trump will be voted out in 2020 and things will return to normal.

其他人信心十足地预测，就算他给美国的世界地位造成短期的危害，特朗普也会在2020年落选。届时，事态将恢复正常。

All this is wishful thinking.

这全是一厢情愿。

On security, Mr Trump has avoided some terrible mistakes.

在安全上，特朗普避免了一些可怕的错误。

He has not started a needless row with China over Taiwan's ambiguous status, as he once threatened to do.

他没有如其所威胁的那样，就台湾的模糊地位与中国开启一场不必要的争端。

Congress and the election-hacking scandal prevented him from pursuing a grand bargain with Vladimir Putin that might have left Russia's neighbours at the Kremlin's mercy.

国会与选举黑客丑闻阻碍了他与普京达成一笔可能让俄罗斯邻国受克里姆林宫摆布的大交易。

And he has apparently coaxed China to exert a little more pressure on North Korea to stop expanding its nuclear arsenal.

同时，他还明显地劝诱中国对北朝鲜多少施加一些压力，使其停止扩张核武库。

However, he has made some serious errors, too, such as undermining the deal with Iran that curbs its ability to make nuclear bombs.

然而，他也犯了一些严重的错误。例如，他架空了与伊朗的那份遏制其制造核弹能力的协议。

And his instincts are atrocious.

再者，他本性是邪恶的。

He imagines he has nothing to learn from history.

他认为自己没有什么要从历史中吸取。

He warms to strongmen, such as Mr Putin and Xi Jinping.

他对待普和习之类的强人热情有加。

His love of generals is matched by a disdain for diplomats—he has gutted the State Department, losing busloads of experienced ambassadors.

他对将军的看重正好与他对外交官的鄙视相般配——他掏空了国务院，失去了大批经验丰富的外交官。

His tweeting is no joke: he undermines and contradicts his officials without warning, and makes reckless threats against Kim Jong Un, whose paranoia needs no stoking.

他发推不是开玩笑：他不加警告就拆他官员的台并发表与他们相矛盾，并且还对被害妄想症无需刺激的金正恩发出鲁莽的威胁。