2018年经济学人 自由交流:丰厚的回报(2)（在线收听）

Theirs is the first such data set to gather all of that information for so many countries over so long a period.

他们的成果是收集这么多国家在这么长的时间内的所有这种信息的第一批这样的数据集。

As such, the authors establish some new basic economic facts.

由此，作者构建出一些全新的基本经济事实。

They conclude, for instance, that over the very long run it is housing, rather than equities, which provides the best return : both asset types have yielded about 7% a year on average over the 145 years, but equity returns are much more volatile.

例如，他们断言，从长期来看，是住房，而不是股票，提供最佳回报：这两类资产在过去145年间都带来了年均7%左右的收益。但是，股票的回报具有大得多的波动性。

It is important to note that, though homeowners might cheer this news, it is not necessarily a reason to leap into the housing market.

需要指出的重要一点是：尽管房主可能为这个消息而欢呼，但是，这并不必然是跳进房产市场的一个理由。

Rental yields account for about half of the long-run return on housing, and owning a diversified portfolio of rent-yielding property is not the same bet as borrowing to house the family.

租金收益占房产长期回报的一半左右，而且拥有一个多样化的租金收益财产组合并非就是借钱让家人住上房子这样的赌注。

Besides offering these baseline findings, the authors' work helps to answer several pressing economic questions.

除了提供这些基准发现外，作者的研究还有助于回答多个紧迫的经济问题。

One example is the puzzle of declining interest rates.

一个例子是跌跌不休的利率之谜。

The falling rates of the past few decades distress some economists, who worry they betoken weak growth and complicate central bankers' ability to manage the economy.

过去几十年间不断下跌的利率让一些经济学家困惑不已，他们担心不断下降的利率预示着疲软的增长，并且让央行银行家管理经济的能力趋向复杂。

Yet the long-run data reveal that the high rates of return on government debt seen in the 1980s were an anomaly.

然而，长期数据揭示，见之于上世纪80年代的政府债券的高回报率是一种反常。

The real return on bonds and short-term bills is normally relatively low—and can even be negative for long periods of time—as some other economists (such as Carmen Reinhart of Harvard University and Belen Sbrancia of the IMF) have also found.

如一些其他经济学家（如哈佛大学的Carmen Reinhart 和 IMF 的Belen Sbrancia）也发现的那样，债券和短期票据的实际回报一般相对较低——而且甚至可以长期为负。

Recent declines therefore represent a return to more typical conditions.

因此，近年的下跌代表的是一种向着更为典型的情况的回归。

That, in turn, suggests that central bankers who hope to “normalise” interest rates may be in for a rude surprise.

这反过来表明，希望让利率“正常化”的央行银行家可能难免要遭遇。