2018年经济学人 美国经济:特朗普的繁荣能持久吗?(2)（在线收听）

Yet the economy is not in immediate danger.

然而，经济体并非处于迫在眉睫的危险之中。

And the maturity of the business cycle cuts both ways.

而且，商业周期的成熟把这两种情况都排除了。

It makes a nonsense of Mr Trump's claims to be the author of American economic success.

特朗普有关他是美国经济成功造就者的说法纯属胡说八道。

But the economy is also capable of some welcome surprises.

但是，经济体出现某些受欢迎的惊喜也是有可能的。

America is not the only economy doing well.

美国不是唯一运转良好的经济体。

For about a year, a synchronised global expansion, taking in Europe, Asia and the Americas, has been under way.

一年来，发生在欧洲、亚洲和美洲的某种步调一致的全球扩张一直都在进行之中。

GDP growth in the euro zone, a region until recently synonymous with economic misery, is around 2.5%, despite slower population growth than America's.

在直到最近都是经济窘境代名词的欧元区，GDP增长在2.5%左右，尽管其人口增长慢于美国。

But America stands out because of where it is in the cycle.

但是，美国的一枝独秀是因为她正处于扩张周期中。

If it continues in 2018, this expansion will become the country's second-longest ever.

倘若这一周期在2018年继续下去，这次的扩张将成为该国史上的第二长时间扩张。

True, there are perils.

诚然，风险是存在的。

As the business cycle matures, there is more chance that the economy will overheat, because of bottlenecks in the jobs market;

随着商业周期走到头，由于就业市场的瓶颈，经济将会过热的可能性越来越大；

or that the central bank overtightens in order to prevent things from running too hot.

为防止事态过热，央行过度收紧的可能性也越来越大。

The longer the economy keeps growing, moreover, the more scope there is for financial imbalances, such as excess debt or frothy asset prices, to build up.

经济体越长时间地保持增长，过度债务或者是泡沫化的资产价格等金融失衡逐步累积的空间就越大。

Some warning signals are flashing.

一些警示信号正在闪烁。

The gap between long-term and short-term interest rates has narrowed, as it tends to before recessions.

长短利率差已经如其在危机之前常常好出现的那样缩小。

Yet the evidence for overheating is thin.

然而，过热的证据是贫乏的。

Inflation has trended lower this year.

今年以来，通胀一路走低。

Wage growth has picked up a little, thankfully, but shows few signs of accelerating.

好在工资增长有所抬头，但没有显现出多少加速的迹象。

Pay would have to increase by quite a lot more before rising inflation is a real worry.

工资支付不得不在日渐上升的通胀之前大幅增长是一个确切的担忧。