2018年经济学人 奥夫拉多尔当选墨西哥总统是福是祸?(2)（在线收听）

The charismatic leaders who ride these resentments to power are almost always false prophets,

这群魅力型领导人们通过驾驭仇恨而夺得权力，他们几乎都是些假先知，

promising security and prosperity even as they erode their foundations.

表面承诺实现国家安定、经济繁荣，本人却破坏这两者的基石。

The danger they pose to new democracies is greater than in more deeply rooted ones.

他们对新兴民主国家造成的危害比对那些民主源远根深的国家要更严重。

Mr Trump is constrained by Congress, an independent judiciary,

特朗普受到国会、独立司法体系、

a free press and a bureaucracy with a long tradition of following the law.

自由媒体和具有遵纪守法长期传统的官僚机构制约。

Mr López Obrador, by contrast, will govern a country that has been democratic only since 2000,

相较之下，洛佩斯·奥夫拉多尔将治理一个2000年才实现民主的国家，

and where corruption is widespread and growing worse.

这个国家腐败丑声远播且愈演愈烈。

The next president's main job should be to reinforce the institutions that underpin a modern economy, democracy and above all the rule of law.

下一任总统的主要工作应该是巩固支撑现代经济、民主和法治的制度。

The risk with Mr López Obrador, who will be the first non-technocratically minded president in 36 years,

选举洛佩斯-奥夫拉多尔的风险在于他的所作所为将与此大相径庭，

is that he will do precisely the opposite.

他将是墨西哥36年来首位非技术型总统。

Mexican technocracy has had its successes.

墨西哥的技术治国派曾有其成功之处。

Orthodox economic policies have ensured relatively steady if unspectacular growth since the 1990s.

自20世纪90年代以来，正统经济政策确保经济谈不上耀眼但相对稳定的增长。

Thanks to the North American FreeTrade Agreement (NAFTA) with the United States and Canada, which took effect in 1994,

北美自由贸易协定（NAFTA）是墨西哥与美国、加拿大签署，于1994年生效，

Mexico is the world’s fourth-biggest exporter of motor vehicles.

受益于这份协定，墨西哥成为世界上第四大汽车出口国。

The outgoing president, Enrique Pena Nieto, opened energy and telecoms to competition

即将卸任的总统恩里克·培尼亚·涅托开放能源业和电信业进行市场竞争，

and is trying to impose higher standards on a failing school system.

并尝试对衰败中的教育体系实行更高标准。

Alas, progress has been slower than politicians promised and is uneven.

可惜的是，事情的进展比政治家们承诺的要慢且发展得不平衡。

Mexico's south, where a quarter of the population lives,

墨西哥约有四分之一的人口居住南部，

has ox-drawn ploughs rather than assembly lines.

南部是牛拉犁的农业地区而非布满生产线的工业地区。

By Mexico's own measure, nearly 44% of its citizens are poor.

按照墨西哥本国标准，贫困人口约占总人口的44%。

The main source of Mexicans'discontent is not inequality

墨西哥人的不满主要根源并非不平等，

but crime and corruption, which have run riot under Mr Pena.

而是在培尼亚统治下愈加猖獗的犯罪和腐败。

The murder rate has broken a record set in 2011.

谋杀率已经打破了2011年创下的记录。

The ruling party has seen countless scandals.

执政党闹出数不尽的丑闻。

It emerged that Mr Pena's wife's $7m home had belonged to a government contractor.

培尼亚妻子价值700万美元的房产被揭露曾属于一家政府承包商。

In an ordinary election, Mexicans would ditch Mr Pena's Institutional Revolutionary Party

一场普选本将抛弃培尼亚的革命制度党

and turn back to the conservative National Action Party.

而重新支持保守的国家行动党。

But after its last crime-ridden years in power, from 2006 to 2012, they are fed up with that, too.

但经历了国家行动党2006年到2012年犯罪猖獗的执政时期，墨西哥人对国家行动党也受够了。

They want change, which Mr López Obrador certainly offers.

墨西哥人需要变革，而是洛佩斯·奥夫拉多尔一定能带来变革。