2018年经济学人自由兑换:欧元区的经常账户盈余(1)（打印版）

Greece's third bail-out programme came to an end on August 20th.

希腊第三次救市计划于8月20日结束。

A look at the causes of the country's near-decade of crisis illustrates how external imbalances can reflect underlying troubles.

希腊近十年危机产生的起因体现了外部失衡如何反应潜在问题。

Gaps in public finances, as well as investments in property, were financed by borrowing from Germany and other northern European countries.

公共财政的差距以及资产投资都是通过向德国以及其他欧洲北部国家借资进行。

Wages and costs were pushed up, making exports less competitive—within the euro zone, there can be no currency devaluation—

工资和成本增加使得出口缺乏竞争力—在欧元区内，不存在货币贬值—

and further widening Greece's current-account deficit.

这进一步扩大了希腊的经常账户盈余。

When foreign lending seized up, the government needed bailing out and the banks crumbled.

当国外贷款中止，政府需要帮助摆脱困境，银行崩溃。

Portugal (chiefly because of its public finances), Spain and Ireland (blame private-sector housing bubbles) have similar tales to tell.

葡萄牙（主要是由于其公共财政）、西班牙和爱尔兰（归咎于私营部门房地产泡沫）也有着相似的故事。

As those four countries have stabilised or recovered, they have wholly or partly reversed their current-account deficits.

那四个国家已经稳定或已恢复过来了，他们已经完全或部分地扭转了他们的经常账户盈余。

But if the periphery has adjusted, the same is not true of the euro area's creditor countries.

但是如果外围出现调整，那么上述情况则并不适用于欧元区的债权国。

Surpluses in Germany and the Netherlands have grown. As a consequence, the euro zone in total has a substantial current-account surplus.

德国和荷兰的盈余已经增长。因此，欧元区整体出现大量的经常账户盈余。

In the year to June it was 3.6% of GDP (the same as the record for a calendar year, set in 2016). Growth is likely to have been hurt.

到六月为止，盈余占GDP的3.6%（2016年一历年的记录也是如此）。增长似乎受到了不良影响。

In 2017, according to the IMF's External Sector Report, published last month,

2017年，根据国际货币基金组织（IMF）涉外部门上个月发布的报告，

the euro area had the world's biggest absolute current-account surplus, $442bn. Germany has the largest of any single country.

欧元区有着世界上最大的绝对经常账户盈余—4420亿美元。德国所占比例比任何单一国家都多。

China's once-vast surplus has narrowed: in the first half of this year, indeed, China reported a deficit.

中国曾经巨额的盈余已经缩减：确实，今年上半年中国发布赤字报告。

America's deficit remains the world's biggest, $466bn last year.

美国的赤字仍是世界最大，去年为4660亿美元。

Corporate-tax cuts, interest-rate rises and the associated dollar appreciation could widen it further.

公司税下降、利率上涨以及美元升值都可能会进一步扩大赤字。