2020年经济学人贸易休战(2)（打印版）

Intriguingly, after the new deal was announced it refrained from mentioning any numerical targets.

有趣的是，新协议宣布后，其也没有提及任何数字目标。

Whether that is because it is embarrassed about having been forced into such a concession,

不管是因为它对被迫做出这样的让步感到尴尬，

or because the purchase agreements are not as solid as American officials suggest, will become clear only when the text is eventually published.

还是因为购买协议并不像美国官员所说的那么可靠，只有在最终公布文本时，情况才会变得明朗。

The Chinese do, however, seem to have made some welcome promises.

然而，中国人似乎做出了一些可喜的承诺。

Mr Lighthizer boasted of commitments on intellectual property similar to, albeit narrower than, those in the USMCA,

莱特希泽吹嘘自己在知识产权方面的承诺与USMCA

a recently agreed trade deal between America, Mexico and Canada. He also said the Chinese authorities had agreed not to ask multinationals

（美国、墨西哥和加拿大签署的贸易协议）的承诺类似，只是范围要窄一些。他还表示中国当局已经同意不要求跨国公司

to hand over technology as part of the process of securing a licence to do business—

在获得经营许可的过程中交出技术—

an issue central to America's first tariff action in the trade war.

这是美国在贸易战中首次采取关税行动的核心问题。

Jake Parker of the US-China Business Council, a lobby group for American companies operating in China,

在华经营的美国公司游说团体，美中贸易全国委员会的杰克·帕克指出，

notes that such tech transfer was the biggest concern for many of his group's members.

这种技术转移是该协会许多成员最关心的问题。

The Chinese, for their part, insisted that their promises were in line with their broader economic strategy of opening up,

而中国方面则坚称，他们的承诺符合更广泛的经济开放战略，

and would improve the business environment.

并将提升商业环境。

Indeed, cynics will note that many of the reforms being chalked up to the deal had already started,

事实上，怀疑者将注意到许多与该协议有关的改革措施已经开始了，

raising questions about whether the nearly two-year-long trade battle has made much difference.

这引发人们的疑问：这场持续近两年的贸易战是否带来了很大的变化？

Until the deal is signed, the threat of renewed trade hostilities remains. And even then, the enforcement rules will cause anxiety.

在协议签署之前，贸易敌对状态重新抬头的威胁依然存在。即便如此，实施规则也会引发焦虑。

Mr Lighthizer, hardly an independent arbiter, will have the final say over whether China has broken its commitments.

莱特希泽几乎不是一个独立的仲裁人，他将对中国是否违反承诺拥有最终决定权。

He will be able to consider anonymous complaints by American companies.

他将能够考虑美国公司的匿名投诉。

This fixes a real problem—fear of retaliation that leads executives to hold their tongues.

这解决了一个真正的问题—害怕报复导致高管们保持沉默。

But it also risks the Chinese feeling that they are being accused of misdeeds they can neither verify nor easily fix.

但这也可能让中国人觉得，他们被指控犯有既无法核实、也不容易纠正的罪行。

Both sides said that the success of the first phase of talks would determine success in the second,

双方都表示第一阶段谈判的成功将决定第二阶段谈判的成功，

which would presumably unlock further tariff cuts. Mr Lighthizer spoke of climbing a mountain a bit at a time. But the summit is still distant.

而第二阶段谈判的成功，可能将推动进一步的关税削减。莱特希泽谈到了一次爬一座山。但峰会仍遥遥无期。