2020年经济学人 妙招还是蠢招--美国暗杀伊朗将领(3)（在线收听）

Still more threatening is Iran’s nuclear programme. Mr Trump pulled America out of the agreement with Iran, signed in 2015 with six world powers, which limited its ability to get a bomb. He argued that he would be able to negotiate a better deal which also took in Iran’s non-nuclear regional activities—a proposal he repeated in his press conference this week. Last summer there was speculation that Iran was ready to talk. But that now seems out of the question, possibly for a long time. Indeed, on January 5th Iran said it would no longer abide by any restrictions on the enrichment of uranium. It has every reason to indulge in nuclear brinkmanship not only as a bargaining counter against America, but also because, were Iran to get the bomb, it would permanently oblige America to change its calculations about using military force against it.

更有威胁性的是伊朗的核计划。特朗普让美国退出了与伊朗的协议，该协议是2015年与六个世界大国签署的，限制了伊朗获得核弹的能力。他认为他能够通过谈判达成一项更好的协议，同时也包括伊朗的无核地区活动——他在本周的新闻发布会上重复了这一提议。去年夏天，有人猜测伊朗准备谈判。但现在看来，这是不可能的，可能很长一段时间都不可能。事实上，1月5日，伊朗表示将不再遵守任何限制铀浓缩的规定。它完全有理由沉迷于核边缘政策，这不仅是美国讨价还价的筹码，也是因为，如果伊朗获得核弹，它将永久迫使美国改变对其使用武力的计划。

The lack of an American strategy for negotiation means that the general’s killing has reduced America’s Iran policy to extreme sanctions accompanied by an ill-defined threat of massive retaliation if the regime misbehaves. Yet, starving Iran into submission is unlikely to work—other regimes have resisted American pressure for longer. There is no path to the peace Mr Trump this week said he wanted. Indeed, because America’s red lines are unclear, the danger of blundering into war remains.

由于缺乏美国的谈判策略，这位将军的死意味着美国对伊朗的政策将会受到极端的制裁，同时如果伊朗政权行为不端，美国还会威胁进行大规模的报复。然而，让伊朗忍饥挨饿以使其屈服是不太可能奏效的——其他政权抵制美国压力的时间更长。特朗普本周表示，他想要的和平之路是不存在的。事实上，由于美国的红线还不明确，美国陷入战争的危险依然存在。

Meanwhile, sanctions and deterrence will gradually become less potent, because they always do. If America wants its approach to be sustained, the price could well be repeated rounds of sanctions buttressed by sustained military counters to Iranian aggression—and an aerial campaign if Iran appears about to get the bomb. Is Mr Trump prepared for that? Are his successors?

与此同时，制裁和威慑的效力将逐渐减弱，因为它们总是如此。如果美国希望自己的做法能够持续下去，其代价很可能是在对伊朗侵略的持续军事反击的支持下，对伊朗实施一轮又一轮的制裁——如果伊朗似乎要获得核弹，就会发动空袭。特朗普准备好了吗？他的继任者们准备好了吗？

The wrong place at the wrong time

在错误的时间，错误的地点

Both Barack Obama and Mr Trump realised that turmoil in the Middle East consumes American resources and attention that would be better focused on Asia. Mr Obama tried to negotiate his way out of the region and failed. Mr Trump is trying to bully his way out instead, but he is likely to fail, too—because his strategy towards the regime in Tehran depends on America being present in the Middle East to contain Iran and maintain deterrence. The dramatic assassination of General Suleimani may look like a gamble that has paid off in the short term. Unfortunately, it has not solved America’s Iran problem.

巴拉克?奥巴马和特朗普都意识到，中东的动荡消耗了美国的资源和注意力，而这些资源和注意力更应该集中在亚洲。奥巴马曾试图通过谈判走出该地区，但以失败告终。特朗普正试图以恐吓的方式摆脱困境，但他也可能失败——因为他对德黑兰政权的战略依赖于美国在中东的存在，以遏制伊朗并保持威慑。对苏莱曼尼将军的戏剧性暗杀可能看起来像是一场赌博，在短期内获得了回报。不幸的是，这并没有解决美国的伊朗问题。