2020年经济学人 新冠病毒的宏观看法(3)（在线收听）

Many experts praise China’s e?orts. Certainly, its scientists have coped better with the Wuhan virus than they did with SARS in 2003, rapidly detecting it, sequencing its genome, licensing diagnostic kits and informing international bodies.

许多专家称赞中国的努力。当然，与2003年的SARS相比，中国科学家在应对2019-ncov方面做得更好，他们迅速检测出了SARS，对其基因组进行了测序，批准了诊断工具，并通知了国际机构。

That may have undermined a measure which is taking a substantial toll. China’s growth in the ?rst quarter could fall to as little as 2%, from 6% before the outbreak. As China accounts for almost a ?fth of world output, there will probably be a noticeable dent on global growth.

这可能破坏了一项正在造成重大损失的措施。中国第一季度的经济增长率可能会从疫情爆发前的6%降至2%。由于中国占全球产出的近五分之一，全球经济增长可能会出现显著放缓。

Outside China such quarantines are unthinkable. The medical and economic cost will depend on governments slowing the disease’s spread. The way to do this is by isolating cases as soon as they crop up and tracing and quarantining people that victims have been in contact with—indeed, if the disease burns out in China, that might yet stop the pandemic altogether. If, by contrast, that proves inadequate, they could shut schools, discourage travel and urge the cancellation of public events. Buying time in this way has advantages even if it does not completely stop the disease. Health-care systems would have a greater chance to prepare for the onslaught, and to empty beds that are now full of people with seasonal ?u.

想象不到还有哪个国家能像中国一样做到这样的隔离。医疗和经济成本将取决于政府能否减缓疾病的蔓延。实现这一目标的方法是，一旦发现病例，立即隔离，并追踪和隔离与患者有过接触的人——实际上，如果这种疾病在中国绝迹，或许还能完全阻止疫情的蔓延。相比之下，如果这被证明是不够的，他们可以关闭学校，阻止旅行，并敦促取消公共活动。以这种方式争取时间是有好处的，即使它不能完全阻止疾病。卫生保健系统将有更大的机会为这次冲击做准备，并腾出现在满是季节性流感患者的病床。

Despite all those e?orts the epidemic could still be severe. Some health systems, in Africa and the slums of Asia’s vast cities, will not be able to isolate patients and trace contacts. Much depends on whether people are infectious when their symptoms are mild (or before they show any at all, as some reports suggest), because such people are hard to spot. And also on whether the virus mutates to become more transmissible or lethal.

尽管作出所有这些努力，疫情仍可能十分严重。非洲和亚洲大城市贫民窟的一些卫生系统将无法隔离病人并追踪接触者。这在很大程度上取决于人们在症状轻微的时候是否具有传染性(或者像一些报告所显示的那样，在他们表现出任何症状之前)，因为这样的人很难被发现。以及病毒是否会突变，变得更具传染性或致命性。

The world has never responded as rapidly to a disease as it has to 2019-ncov. Even so, the virus may still do great harm. As humans encroach on new habitats, farm more animals, gather in cities, travel and warm the planet, new diseases will become more common. One estimate puts their cost at $60bn a year. SARS, MERS, Nipah, Zika, Mexican swine ?u: the fever from Wuhan is the latest of a bad bunch. It will not be the last.

世界对一种疾病的反应从来没有像对2019-ncov这样迅速。即便如此，这种病毒仍可能造成巨大危害。随着人类侵占新栖息地、饲养更多动物、聚集在城市、旅行并使地球变暖，新型疾病将更加普遍。据估计，它们每年的成本为600亿美元。SARS、中东呼吸综合征、尼帕病毒、寨卡病毒、墨西哥猪流感，而2019-ncov是最新的病毒。而这不会是最后一种。