商业周刊:美联储两位主席的奇案（在线收听）

The Strange Case of Dr. Yellen and Chairman Jay

耶伦博士和杰罗姆主席的奇案

The two Fed chiefs have turned out to be remarkably similar policymakers

事实证明，美联储的两位领导人是非常相似的决策者。

Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell has just finished his first year on the job—marking the fifth year of what could be called the Yellen-Powell Fed.

美国联邦储备委员会主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔刚刚完成他任职的第一年工作，也就是所谓的耶伦—鲍威尔时代的美联储第五年。

Together with predecessor Janet Yellen, Powell has presided over the slowest rate-hiking cycle the U.S. has ever seen.

鲍威尔与美联储前主席珍妮特·耶伦共同负责实施了美国有史以来最缓慢的加息周期。

Their patience might just deliver that most elusive of goals of central bankers: bringing a hot economy into a "soft landing," tamping down nascent inflation while avoiding a recession.

他们的耐心也许只兑现了央行官员们最难以实现的目标：将经济热潮带入“软着陆”，在避免经济衰退的同时遏制新生的通货膨胀。

Inheriting a Fed that still had key interest rates near zero, Yellen began to raise them when economic data was strengthening—then paused and pledged restraint at the first sign of trouble.

继美联储仍将关键利率维持在接近零的水平后，耶伦在经济数据加强时开始提高利率，然后暂停，并承诺在发现问题的第一个迹象时进行控制。

Powell has largely followed her lead. So far, so good.

鲍威尔基本上是在遵从耶伦的路线，到目前为止，一切正常。

Inflation is hovering at about the Fed's 2 percent goal, and 13 million Americans have joined the job market since Yellen took office in February 2014.

通货膨涨在美联储2%的目标附近徘徊，自耶伦2014年2月上任以来，已有1300万美国人加入到就业市场中。

The central bank has coaxed interest rates up to between 2.25 percent and 2.5 percent.

央行已将利率调至2.25%至2.5%之间。

And it's manage do shrink the massive balance sheet of bonds it built up after the financial crisis without sending markets into a tailspin.

其管理确实减少了金融危机之后建立起来的巨额债券资产负债状况，没有让市场陷入混乱。

Yet the strategy has taken fire from both sides.

然而，这一策略却遭到了两方面的抨击。

Yellen was regularly warned that raising interest rates too slowly risked spurring runaway increases in consumer prices.

有人经常警告耶伦，加息过慢可能会刺激消费者价格上涨失控。

Throughout 2018, President Trump lambasted Powell for tightening too much. Many on Wall Street complained, too.

2018年一整年，总统特朗普都在抨击鲍威尔实施的政策太过紧缩，华尔街也有许多人怨声载道。

The Fed changed tack in January, signaling a pause to rate increases and a willingness to reconsider the plan to allow asset holdings to steadily mature without reinvesting them.

美联储在一月份改变了策略，暗示将暂停利率上调，并表示出重新考虑该计划的意愿，使资产持有稳步到期而不进行再投资。

It was responding in part to slower global growth—not unlike the Yellen Fed's yearlong pause when growth showed cracks in 2016.

这样做部分原因在于全球经济增长放缓，这与耶伦任职美联储主席期间于2016年经济增长出现问题时，实施长达一年的停置并无不同。

The complaint du jour has also shifted. Monetary policy commentators are now scandalized that Powell capitulated.

各种抱怨之声也在发生变化。现在，货币政策评论员们都对鲍威尔的妥协表示深恶痛绝。