美国国家公共电台 NPR 爱尔兰大选三党鼎立 组建政府困难重重（在线收听）

In Ireland, election results are neck and neck, or maybe we should say neck and neck and neck. Exit polls are showing a three-way tie among the top parties, ending days of two-party dominance in Ireland. Prime Minister Leo Varadkar's party is getting a challenge not just from the usual opposition, but as well from Irish nationalists. The center-left, Sinn Fein, is now a contender as Ireland is leaning increasingly liberal. So what could the rise of a left-wing entity mean for Europe and beyond?

Let's turn to Irish Times journalist Hugh Linehan. He's on the line from Dublin. Good morning.

HUGH LINEHAN: Good morning, David.

GREENE: So three parties tied at just about 22 percentage. I just want to listen to Prime Minister Varadkar addressing this.

(SOUNDBITE OF ARCHIVED RECORDING)

PRIME MINISTER LEO VARADKAR: It seems that we have now a three-party system — three parties all getting roughly the same number of votes, roughly the same number of seats. And that is going to make forming a government quite difficult.

GREENE: OK. The prime minister is sounding pretty honest about this moment. What should we make of this? What is the significance of a left-wing party gaining power in Ireland?

LINEHAN: Well, there have always been left-wing parties in Ireland, but they've always been a little bit smaller than the two main parties. The two main parties have always been in the center, really, and they've shared power or swapped power really over almost 100 years now. So this really is quite a cataclysmic event — not only that we've moved from two big parties to three big parties, but that the new one is on the left. It's proposing higher taxes for the wealthy, more investment in housing and health, reducing taxes for people who are less well-off. So that's a very significant change.

GREENE: Well, I just think about, I mean, this being a party, Sinn Fein, not shy about the goal of reunification, I mean, with Northern Ireland...

LINEHAN: Sure.

GREENE: ...And I think about Brexit with this whole new context in Europe. How is that all playing together and is reunification back on the table seriously now?

LINEHAN: Well, there's no doubt at all that this election was fought, as most elections are, on economic issues. But there's also no doubt at all that the first item on the agenda for Sinn Fein, more so than any other party in Ireland, is the reunification of Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland. And the events around Brexit have certainly made that debate a bit hotter than it has been for a long time. Sinn Fein will be pushing for a referendum in Northern Ireland to see if people there are willing to vote for the reunification of the island.

GREENE: You mentioned that much of this has focused on domestic issues and not things like Brexit necessarily. I mean, we've seen parties in other countries move towards the right, towards the populist right — I mean, I think about Hungary, France, Italy.

LINEHAN: Absolutely.

GREENE: I mean, Ireland shifting to the left — why is Ireland different? Why are we seeing a different trend here?

LINEHAN: It's a great test case for political scientists, Ireland, because it is — you're quite right. It's quite a different situation here. But because Sinn Fein has a long history of being associated — presenting itself as being associated with anti-imperialist struggles, with organizations like Nelson Mandela and the ANC in South Africa, with Latin American liberation movements, that vote, that nationalist vote is very definitely on the left.

So it is not — doesn't have any of the nativist strands which you'll see in other countries. We have a lot of immigration in Ireland over the last 20 years or so. It wasn't an issue in this election at all because of Sinn Fein's position.

GREENE: What happens next? I mean, the prime minister there, pretty honest about how hard this is going to be to form a government.

LINEHAN: I think that's a really difficult question. The — these three parties — it's important to say, actually, that Sinn Fein, they are nearly neck and neck, but Sinn Fein is a nose ahead. For the first time in the history of the state, Sinn Fein is the biggest party in the state. It won't have the most seats because it's surprised by this result, as most of us are as well, and it didn't put enough candidates forward. So it will be smaller in the Parliament, but it'll be the most popular party.

Up to now, the other parties have refused to deal with it because of its background, its connections with the IRA and the history of violence. But I think a deal is going to have to be done. We're going to have a very different type of government in Ireland.

GREENE: Hugh Linehan is a journalist with the Irish Times. Thanks so much.

LINEHAN: Thanks, David.

爱尔兰选举结果不相上下，或者也许我们应该说三个政党的得票数难分上下。出口民调显示，三大政党所获票数相差无几，这结束了爱尔兰两党统治的历史。爱尔兰总理利奥·瓦拉德卡所在政党不仅面临来自老对手的挑战，也面临着来自爱尔兰民族主义政党的挑战。由于爱尔兰日益倾向自由主义，现在中左翼政党新芬党已经加入竞争阵营。那左翼实体的崛起对欧洲及其他地区意味着什么？

下面我们来连线《爱尔兰时报》记者休·莱恩汉。他将从都柏林和我们连线。早上好。

休·莱恩汉：早上好，大卫。

格林：三个政党的得票数几乎相同，均为22%左右。我想听听总理瓦拉德卡就此发表的看法。

（录音档案）

爱尔兰总理利奥·瓦拉德卡：看起来我们现在是三党制——三个政党获得的票数几乎相同，所获席位数也几乎相同。这会使组建政府变得相当困难。

格林：好。听起来总理此刻非常诚实。我们应该如何理解现状？左翼政党在爱尔兰得势有何重大意义？

莱恩汉：左翼政党在爱尔兰一直存在，但是这些政党一直无法与两大主要政党竞争。两个主要政党总是处于中心地位，他们已经分享权力或交换权力近100年的时间。因此，可以说这是相当严重的灾难性事件——爱尔兰不仅从两大政党变为三大政党，而且如你所说，新加入战局的政党是左翼政党。其提议增加富人的税收，加大住房和健康领域的投资，为不太富裕的群体减税。这是非常重大的变化。

格林：我想新芬党并未回避爱尔兰与北爱尔兰统一这一目标。

莱恩汉：没错。

格林：我还想到了英国脱欧这一发生在欧洲的全新背景。这一切要如何应对，现在真的已经在重新讨论统一问题了吗？

莱恩汉：毫无疑问，与大多数选举一样，本届选举也是围绕经济问题展开的。同样毫无疑问的是，相比于爱尔兰其他任何政党，新芬党议程上的首个任务是统一北爱尔兰和爱尔兰共和国。相比于此前长时间以来的情况，英国脱欧无疑使这一争论更加热烈。新芬党将力争在北爱尔兰举行全民公投，看看当地民众是否愿意投票支持爱尔兰统一。

格林：你刚提到大部分选举议题集中在国内问题上，而不一定是英国脱欧这种国际事件。我们看到其他国家的政党在逐渐右倾，靠近右翼民粹主义，比如匈牙利、法国和意大利。

莱恩汉：没错。

格林：而爱尔兰在向左倾，为什么爱尔兰与众不同？为什么爱尔兰会出现不同的趋势？

莱恩汉：这对爱尔兰的政治科学家来说是极好的测试案例，因为……你说的非常正确。爱尔兰的情况完全不同。但是因为很长时间以来，新芬党一直自称与反帝国主义斗争有联系，还与南非的纳尔逊·曼德拉、非洲国民大会以及拉丁美洲解放运动有联系，民族主义者肯定会投票支持左翼。

因此没有出现大家在其他国家看到的本土主义因素。过去20年，有大量移民进入爱尔兰。而由于新芬党的立场，本届选举并未涉及这一问题。

格林：接下来会怎样？爱尔兰总理诚实地说明了组建政府的难度有多大。

莱恩汉：我认为这是非常难以回答的问题。这三个政党……重要的是，新芬党……三个政党的票数不相上下，但新芬党略微领先。这是爱尔兰历史上新芬党首次成为第一大党。但该政党不会获得最多席位，因为他们与我们大多数人一样震惊，而且该政党也没有推荐足够的候选人。因此，新芬党在议会所占席位会较少，但其将成为最受欢迎政党。

截至目前，由于该政党的背景、与爱尔兰共和军（简称IRA）的联系以及暴力史，其他政党均拒绝与该党合作。但我认为必须达成协议。爱尔兰将迎来一届极为不同的政府。

格林：休·莱恩汉是《爱尔兰时报》的记者。非常谢谢你的报道。

莱恩汉：谢谢，大卫。