美国国家公共电台 NPR 美国与塔利班达成初步协议 降低暴力活动并缩减驻阿美军（在线收听）

The U.S. has been fighting in Afghanistan for almost two decades, and now the Trump administration says it has reached a deal with the Taliban. It's preliminary, and it's meant to reduce violence in Afghanistan and pave the way for eventual peace talks and the withdrawal of U.S. troops. NPR's Michele Kelemen joins us now in the studio. Welcome back.

MICHELE KELEMEN, BYLINE: Hi there, Audie.

CORNISH: What do you know so far about, I guess, a diplomatic opening?

KELEMEN: Right. So this is just a first step. It's a week-long reduction in violence. Administration officials haven't said exactly when that's going to start, and they're careful not to call it a cease-fire. But they say this reduction of violence agreement is detailed and specific, that it covers all of Afghanistan and that the U.S. military and Afghans reserve the right to self-defense during this time.

It's an agreement that U.S. envoy Zalmay Khalilzad has been working on in his talks with the Taliban in Doha, Qatar. He was in Munich today and joined Secretary of State Mike Pompeo in talks with Afghanistan's president — that's on the sidelines of a security conference there.

CORNISH: The conversation and chatter around this has been going for such a long time. I mean, what are the chances that this moment will work out?

KELEMEN: Well, what I can say is that there are a lot of spoilers in Afghanistan — ISIS, al-Qaida, various factions of the Taliban. One official told reporters today that 20% of Taliban forces — that could be many thousands — could splinter off and keep fighting in Afghanistan. And another problem is that U.S. officials don't really have the footprint to monitor all of this. One official said there is kind of a channel that the U.S. has with the Taliban and that Afghans are going to join that channel and that will be the place where they can discuss issues as they arise during this so-called reduction in violence.

CORNISH: So that's why the language is so tentative.

KELEMEN: Yeah. I mean, officials say what happens if there's calm over the next seven-day period — again, we don't know when it begins — but then they'll be ready to sign a deal with the Taliban. And in that deal, the Taliban would have to agree to enter talks with the Afghan government and with civic leaders. That's something that they've refused to do so far.

And the U.S. is going to draw down troops, and that's something President Trump has been promising to do. The U.S. is planning to draw down from over 12,000 to about 8,600 troops. Military officials have said that's a number they can work with to train Afghans and to continue their fight against terrorist groups. A further drawdown will be based on kind of conditions on the ground.

CORNISH: Now, what happens in the weeks and months ahead if the Taliban continues to fight or doesn't come to any of the agreement with Afghans on how the country should be governed?

KELEMEN: Well, that's a big question mark hanging over all of this. Officials are really reluctant so far to talk about that at the moment. The military will only say that, you know, this withdrawal is going to be conditions-based. Again, that gives them some flexibility. And when it comes to the peace talks, I mean, experts I've spoken with are really worried that Afghans aren't ready for this. There are a lot of big topics at stake — the country's constitution, the rights of women. All these hard-won rights, it's not clear whether the Taliban will accept any of that or try to roll it back.

One official today said that the U.S. is hoping that Afghans will rise to the occasion and see these intra-Afghan talks as an opportunity. There are countries that are willing to host. And the U.S. is going to be there on the ground expected to at least monitor all of this. But again, lots of questions and no real guarantees on how or if this war, America's longest war, is really going to come to an end.

CORNISH: That's NPR diplomatic correspondent Michele Kelemen. Michele, thanks so much.

KELEMEN: Sure thing.

美国在阿富汗作战了近20年，现在特朗普政府宣布与塔利班达成协议。这是一份初步协议，旨在减少阿富汗的暴力事件，并为最终的和平谈判和美军撤离铺平道路。我们将NPR新闻的米歇尔·克莱门请到了演播室。欢迎回来。

米歇尔·克莱门：你好，奥迪。

柯尼什：我想这是外交开端，目前你对此有何了解？

克莱门：对。这只是第一步。即长达一周的减少暴力活动期。政府官员并未明确说明何时开始，而且他们很谨慎，并未称之为停火。但他们表示，这份减少暴力活动的协议既详细又具体，涵盖阿富汗所有地区，美军和阿富汗在此期间保留自卫权。

这是美国特使扎勒迈·哈利勒扎德在卡塔尔多哈与塔利班谈判期间一直致力于达成的协议。他今天在慕尼黑与美国国务卿迈克·蓬佩奥一起与阿富汗总统举行会谈，这场会谈于慕尼黑安全会议期间举行。

柯尼什：围绕这种情况展开的谈话已经持续了很长一段时间。现在实现的可能性有多大？

克莱门：我要说的是，阿富汗境内有大量破坏者，比如ISIS、“基地”组织还有塔利班的各个派别。一名官员今天对记者表示，20%的塔利班武装力量——大概有数千人——可能分分裂并继续在阿富汗战斗。另一个问题是，美国官员并没有精力来监控这一切。一名官员表示，美国与塔利班之间有一种渠道，而阿富汗将加入这一渠道，这样他们就能在这里讨论所谓的“减少暴力活动期”中出现的问题。

柯尼什：这就是所用语言如此试探性的原因。

克莱门：对。官员表示，如果接下来的七天可以保持平静——再说一遍，我们不知道这个七天周期从何时开始——那他们会准备好与塔利班签署协议。依据这项协议，塔利班必须同意与阿富汗政府和民间领袖进行谈判。而这是他们到目前为止一直拒绝的事情。

美国将减少阿富汗驻军，这是特朗普总统一直承诺要做的事情。美国计划将驻阿美军从1.2万余人减少到8600人左右。军方官员表示，留守美军可以与阿富汗合作，帮助训练阿富汗军队并继续打击恐怖主义组织。进一步的减兵计划将依据当地情况而定。

柯尼什：那如果塔利班继续斗争或没有与阿富汗就国家治理方式达成协议，那未来几周或几个月会发生什么？

克莱门：这是悬而未决的一个大问题。目前来看，官员非常不愿意谈论这个问题。军方只会说，撤军将依情况而定。这也使他们获得了一些灵活性。至于和平谈判，接受我采访的专家非常担心阿富汗还未做好准备。有许多利害攸关的重大议题，比如阿富汗宪法和女性权利等。所有这些都是得来不易的权利，目前并不清楚塔利班是会接受其中一项权利还是会试图收回权利。

一名官员今天表示，美国希望阿富汗能应对自如，将这些阿富汗内部会谈视为机会。有些国家愿意举办这些会谈。预计美国将前往会谈现场监测情况。重申一下，现在还存在很多问题，至于这场美国持续时间最长的战争会如何或能否真的结束，实际上并没有真正的保障。

柯尼什：以上是NPR新闻的外交记者米歇尔·克莱门带来的报道。米歇尔，非常谢谢你。

克莱门：不客气。