美国有线新闻 CNN 爱荷华州党团会议前瞻 特朗普或将轻松获胜（在线收听）

Four days away from the Iowa caucuses, U.S. presidential candidates are out and about in the Hawkeye State. Political advertisements and attack ads are running. Some show the candidates in a good light and ask Iowans to vote for them. Some show the candidates in a bad light and ask Iowans to vote for someone else. U.S. President Donald Trump is scheduled to attend a political rally today in Des Moines, the Iowa state capital. And when Iowa holds its caucuses on Monday, dozens of the president's supporters are set to travel there and charge up enthusiasm for the incumbent leader.

现在距离爱荷华州党团会议还有四天时间，美国总统候选人正在鹰眼州（爱荷华州的别称）开展造势活动。政治广告和攻击性广告也在轮番播放。一些广告展示了候选人的良好形象，号召爱荷华州选民投票支持他们。还有一些广告显示了候选人的负面形象，要求爱荷华州选民投票支持其他候选人。美国总统唐纳德·特朗普计划出席今天在爱荷华州首府得梅因举行的一场政治集会。爱荷华州党团会议定于周一举行，届时将有数十名总统的支持者前往现场，点燃人们对现任总统的热情。

The Iowa caucuses are the first contests of the 2020 Primary season. Voters aren't directly choosing a president at this time. They're helping each major party narrow down the final candidate who will appear on the presidential ballot in November. President Trump is expected to easily win the Republican party's nomination so most of the attention in Iowa has been on the Democrats running for their party's nomination because there are currently 12 of them. And winning the Iowa caucuses could give a big boost to any of their campaigns. This doesn't necessarily predict that they'll win the Democratic party's nomination for president.

爱荷华州党团会议是2020年总统初选季的首次角逐。选民并不会在这场角逐中直接选出总统人选。而是会帮助每个主要政党缩小将出现在11月总统选举中的最终候选人的范围。预计特朗普总统将轻松赢得共和党提名，因此，爱荷华州的大部分注意力都集中在民主党的党内提名上，因为目前有12名民主党人参加竞选。在爱荷华州党团会议中获胜会为他们的竞选活动带来极大的推动作用。这并不一定预示着他们将赢得民主党的总统提名。

Though since 1972, seven of the 10 Democrats who won in Iowa did eventually become the Democratic nominee that's according to the Des Moines Register. A lot of this is about momentum, getting publicity, raising funds, positioning for the presidential race. For the candidates who do well, that will be a lot easier and they can expect a jump in the national polls. For those who don't do well, this could make the path forward a lot harder especially if they drop in the polls.

不过，据《得梅因纪事报》统计，自1972年以来，在爱荷华州获胜的10名民主党人中有7人最终成为了民主党总统候选人。这与动力有很大关系，获得宣传、筹集资金、为总统竞选定位。对表现出色的候选人来说，这些都将容易得多，他们可以期待在全国民调中的支持率大幅提升。而对表现不佳的候选人来说，这可能会令他们前进的道路变得更加艰难，尤其是他们在民调中的支持率下滑的话。